FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also partitioned into households. Under various vaccine action models, we consider both household-based vaccination schemes, in which the way in which individuals are chosen for vaccination depends on the size of the households in which they reside, and acquaintance vaccination, which targets individuals of high degree in the social network. For both types of vaccination scheme, assuming a large population with few initial infectives, we derive a threshold parameter which determines whether or not a large outbreak can occur and also the probability and fraction of the population infected by such an outbreak. The performance of these schemes is studied numerically, focusing on the influence of the household size distribution and the degree distribution of the social network. We find that acquaintance vaccination can significantly outperform the best household-based scheme if the degree distribution of the social network is heavy-tailed. For household-based schemes, when the vaccine coverage is insufficient to prevent a major outbreak and the vaccine is imperfect, we find situations in which both the probability and size of a major outbreak under the scheme which minimises the threshold parameter are \emph{larger} than in the scheme which maximises the threshold parameter

European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer screening and diagnosis: overview and introduction to the full supplement publication

Population-based screening for early detection and treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC) and precursor lesions, using evidence-based methods, can be effective in populations with a significant burden of the disease provided the services are of high quality. Multidisciplinary, evidence-based guidelines for quality assurance in CRC screening and diagnosis have been developed by experts in a project co-financed by the European Union. The 450-page guidelines were published in book format by the European Commission in 2010. They include 10 chapters and over 250 recommendations, individually graded according to the strength of the recommendation and the supporting evidence. Adoption of the recommendations can improve and maintain the quality and effectiveness of an entire screening process, including identification and invitation of the target population, diagnosis and management of the disease and appropriate surveillance in people with detected lesions. To make the principles, recommendations and standards in the guidelines known to a wider professional and scientific community and to facilitate their use in the scientific literature, the original content is presented in journal format in an open-access Supplement of Endoscopy. The editors have prepared the present overview to inform readers of the comprehensive scope and content of the guidelines.Fil: Arrossi, Silvina. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: von Karsa, Lawrence. International Agency for Research on Cancer; FranciaFil: Patrick, J.. NHS Cancer Screening Programmes Sheffield; Reino Unido. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Segnan, N.. International Agency for Research on Cancer; Francia. AO Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino; ItaliaFil: Atkin, W.. Imperial College London; Reino UnidoFil: Halloran, S.. University of Surrey; Reino UnidoFil: Saito, H.. National Cancer Centre; JapónFil: Sauvaget, C.. International Agency for Research on Cancer; FranciaFil: Scharpantgen, A.. Ministry of Health; LuxemburgoFil: Schmiegel, W.. Ruhr-Universität Bochum; AlemaniaFil: Senore, C.. AO Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino; ItaliaFil: Siddiqi, M.. Cancer Foundation of India; IndiaFil: Sighoko, D.. University of Chicago; Estados Unidos. Formerly International Agency for Research on Cancer; FranciaFil: Smith, R.. American Cancer Society; Estados UnidosFil: Smith S.. University Hospitals Coventry & Warwickshire NHS Trust; Reino UnidoFil: Suchanek, S.. Charles University; República ChecaFil: Suonio, E.. International Agency for Research on Cancer; FranciaFil: Tong, W.. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Törnberg, S.. Stockholm Gotland Regional Cancer Centre. Department of Cancer Screening; SueciaFil: Van Cutsem, E.. Katholikie Universiteit Leuven; BélgicaFil: Vignatelli, L.. Agenzia Sanitaria e Sociale Regionale; ItaliaFil: Villain, P.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Voti, L.. Formerly International Agency for Research on Cancer; Francia. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Watanabe, H.. Niigata University; JapónFil: Watson, J.. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Winawer, S.. Memorial Sloan–Kettering Cancer Center; Estados UnidosFil: Young, G.. Flinders University. Gastrointestinal Services; AustraliaFil: Zaksas, V.. State Patient Fund; LituaniaFil: Zappa, M.. Cancer Prevention and Research Institute; ItaliaFil: Valori, R.. NHS Endoscopy; Reino Unid

Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data.</p> <p>Main findings</p> <p>First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1) The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2) The highest frequency (61.8%) of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3) The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing) taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.</p

Web-based physical activity intervention for people with progressive multiple sclerosis: application of consensus-based intervention development guidance.

OBJECTIVES: People with progressive multiple sclerosis (PwPMS) report that they recognise the benefits of activity on their physical and psychological health but need support to achieve their physical activity goals. We aimed to systematically develop a theoretically informed intervention that would enable PwPMS to more readily engage in regular physical activity. DESIGN: We used an intervention mapping approach to inform intervention development. SETTING: We conducted semistructured interviews with PwPMS and their families/carers and physiotherapists recruited from secondary care settings. PARTICIPANTS: Fourteen PwPMS with an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of between 6 and 8 and 7 of their families/carers and 13 physiotherapists and 1 physiotherapy technician participated. RESULTS: Interview data suggested that the development of supportive coaching relationships with physiotherapists could promote the ability of PwPMS to achieve a desirable and achievable physical activity plan. These interview data informed the prototype 'Lifestyle Exercise and Activity Package for Multiple Sclerosis' (LEAP-MS) consisting of a secure multiuser web-based platform (with an education and activity suite, interactive components enabling selection of exercises, goal setting and activity logging), up to six flexible face-to-face or web-based physiotherapy coaching sessions and remote support via an embedded web-based messaging function that all together draw on specific theory-based methods to achieve physical activity behaviour change, namely active learning, reinforcement, modelling, feedback, facilitation, goal setting and guided practice. Implementation is within a multiuser platform accessible to participants, trained physiotherapists and researchers. CONCLUSIONS: We have followed an inclusive, systematic and transparent process to develop the LEAP-MS intervention that enables detailed description of components, context and guiding principles to inform ongoing evaluation. Importantly, PwPMS expressed the need for autonomy in developing physical activity plans. This has been achieved through the embedding of self-management principles in the design and delivery of the LEAP-MS intervention

Web-based physical activity intervention for people with progressive multiple sclerosis: application of consensus-based intervention development guidance.

OBJECTIVES: People with progressive multiple sclerosis (PwPMS) report that they recognise the benefits of activity on their physical and psychological health but need support to achieve their physical activity goals. We aimed to systematically develop a theoretically informed intervention that would enable PwPMS to more readily engage in regular physical activity. DESIGN: We used an intervention mapping approach to inform intervention development. SETTING: We conducted semistructured interviews with PwPMS and their families/carers and physiotherapists recruited from secondary care settings. PARTICIPANTS: Fourteen PwPMS with an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of between 6 and 8 and 7 of their families/carers and 13 physiotherapists and 1 physiotherapy technician participated. RESULTS: Interview data suggested that the development of supportive coaching relationships with physiotherapists could promote the ability of PwPMS to achieve a desirable and achievable physical activity plan. These interview data informed the prototype 'Lifestyle Exercise and Activity Package for Multiple Sclerosis' (LEAP-MS) consisting of a secure multiuser web-based platform (with an education and activity suite, interactive components enabling selection of exercises, goal setting and activity logging), up to six flexible face-to-face or web-based physiotherapy coaching sessions and remote support via an embedded web-based messaging function that all together draw on specific theory-based methods to achieve physical activity behaviour change, namely active learning, reinforcement, modelling, feedback, facilitation, goal setting and guided practice. Implementation is within a multiuser platform accessible to participants, trained physiotherapists and researchers. CONCLUSIONS: We have followed an inclusive, systematic and transparent process to develop the LEAP-MS intervention that enables detailed description of components, context and guiding principles to inform ongoing evaluation. Importantly, PwPMS expressed the need for autonomy in developing physical activity plans. This has been achieved through the embedding of self-management principles in the design and delivery of the LEAP-MS intervention