Selecting patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy for ICDs

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When can heart failure treatment be stopped safely? – Authors' reply

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Personalizing sudden death risk stratification in dilated cardiomyopathy: past, present and future

Results from the DANISH Study (Danish Study to Assess the Efficacy of ICDs in Patients with Nonischemic Systolic Heat Failure on Mortality) suggest that, for many patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) do not increase longevity. Accurate identification of patients who are more likely to die of an arrhythmia and less likely to die from other causes is required to ensure improvement in outcomes and wise use of resources. Until now, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) has been used as a key criterion for selecting patients with DCM for an ICD for primary prevention purposes. However, registry data suggest that many patients with DCM and an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest do not have a markedly reduced LVEF. Additionally, many patients with reduced LVEF die from non-sudden causes of death. Methods to predict a higher or lower risk of sudden death include the detection of myocardial fibrosis (a substrate for ventricular arrhythmia), microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA; a marker of electrophysiological vulnerability) and genetic testing. Mid-wall fibrosis is identified by late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in around 30% of patients and provides incremental value in addition to LVEF for the prediction of SCD events. MTWA represents another promising predictor, supported by large meta-analyses that have highlighted the negative predictive value of this test. However, neither of these strategies has been routinely adopted for risk stratification in clinical practice. More convincing data from randomized trials are required to inform the management of patients with these features. Understanding of the genetics of DCM and how specific mutations affect arrhythmic risk is also rapidly increasing. The finding of a mutation in LMNA, the cause of around 6% of idiopathic DCM, commonly underpins more aggressive management due to the malignant nature of the associated phenotype. With the expansion of genetic sequencing, the identification of further high-risk mutations appears likely, leading to better informed clinical decision-making as well as providing insight into disease mechanisms. Over the next 5-10 years we expect these techniques to be integrated into the existing algorithm to form a more sensitive, specific and cost-effective approach to the selection of DCM patients for ICD implantation

Outcome in Dilated Cardiomyopathy Related to the Extent, Location, and Pattern of Late Gadolinium Enhancement.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the association between the extent, location, and pattern of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and outcome in a large dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) cohort. BACKGROUND: The relationship between LGE and prognosis in DCM is incompletely understood. METHODS: The authors examined the association between LGE and all-cause mortality and a sudden cardiac death (SCD) composite based on the extent, location, and pattern of LGE in DCM. RESULTS: Of 874 patients (588 men, median age 52 years) followed for a median of 4.9 years, 300 (34.3%) had nonischemic LGE. Estimated adjusted hazard ratios for patients with an LGE extent of 0 to 2.55%, 2.55% to 5.10%, and >5.10%, respectively, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99 to 2.55), 1.56 (95% CI: 0.96 to 2.54), and 2.31 (95% CI: 1.50 to 3.55) for all-cause mortality, and 2.79 (95% CI: 1.42 to 5.49), 3.86 (95% CI: 2.09 to 7.13), and 4.87 (95% CI: 2.78 to 8.53) for the SCD endpoint. There was a marked nonlinear relationship between LGE extent and outcome such that even small amounts of LGE predicted a substantial increase in risk. The presence of septal LGE was associated with increased mortality, but SCD was most associated with the combined presence of septal and free-wall LGE. Predictive models using LGE presence and location were superior to models based on LGE extent or pattern. CONCLUSIONS: In DCM, the presence of septal LGE is associated with a large increase in the risk of death and SCD events, even when the extent is small. SCD risk is greatest with concomitant septal and free-wall LGE. The incremental value of LGE extent beyond small amounts and LGE pattern is limited

Sex‐ and age‐based differences in the natural history and outcome of dilated cardiomyopathy

Aim: To evaluate the relationship between sex, age and outcome in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Methods and results: We used proportional hazard modelling to examine the association between sex, age and all‐cause mortality in consecutive patients with DCM. Overall, 881 patients (290 women, median age 52 years) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. Women were more likely to present with heart failure (64.0% vs. 54.5%; P = 0.007) and had more severe symptoms (P 60 years of age was driven by non‐sudden death. Conclusion: Women with DCM have better survival compared to men, which may partly be due to less severe left ventricular dysfunction and a smaller scar burden. There is increased mortality driven by non‐sudden death in patients >60 years of age that is less marked in women. Outcomes with contemporary treatment were favourable, with a low incidence of sudden death

A novel cardiovascular magnetic resonance risk score for predicting mortality following surgical aortic valve replacement

The increasing prevalence of patients with aortic stenosis worldwide highlights a clinical need for improved and accurate prediction of clinical outcomes following surgery. We investigated patient demographic and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) characteristics to formulate a dedicated risk score estimating long-term survival following surgery. We recruited consecutive patients undergoing CMR with gadolinium administration prior to surgical aortic valve replacement from 2003 to 2016 in two UK centres. The outcome was overall mortality. A total of 250 patients were included (68 ± 12 years, male 185 (60%), with pre-operative mean aortic valve area 0.93 ± 0.32cm2, LVEF 62 ± 17%) and followed for 6.0 ± 3.3 years. Sixty-one deaths occurred, with 10-year mortality of 23.6%. Multivariable analysis showed that increasing age (HR 1.04, P = 0.005), use of antiplatelet therapy (HR 0.54, P = 0.027), presence of infarction or midwall late gadolinium enhancement (HR 1.52 and HR 2.14 respectively, combined P = 0.12), higher indexed left ventricular stroke volume (HR 0.98, P = 0.043) and higher left atrial ejection fraction (HR 0.98, P = 0.083) associated with mortality and developed a risk score with good discrimination. This is the first dedicated risk prediction score for patients with aortic stenosis undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement providing an individualised estimate for overall mortality. This model can help clinicians individualising medical and surgical care

Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system

Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state-space modelling of 20-years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with ~3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching ~80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multihost pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes