Bias in the prediction of genetic gain due to mass and half-sib selection in random mating populations

The prediction of gains from selection allows the comparison of breeding methods and selection strategies, although these estimates may be biased. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of such bias in predicting genetic gain. For this, we simulated 10 cycles of a hypothetical breeding program that involved seven traits, three population classes, three experimental conditions and two breeding methods (mass and half-sib selection). Each combination of trait, population, heritability, method and cycle was repeated 10 times. The predicted gains were biased, even when the genetic parameters were estimated without error. Gain from selection in both genders is twice the gain from selection in a single gender only in the absence of dominance. The use of genotypic variance or broad sense heritability in the predictions represented an additional source of bias. Predictions based on additive variance and narrow sense heritability were equivalent, as were predictions based on genotypic variance and broad sense heritability. The predictions based on mass and family selection were suitable for comparing selection strategies, whereas those based on selection within progenies showed the largest bias and lower association with the realized gain

Population structure and genetic diversity in a commercial maize breeding program assessed with SSR and SNP markers

Information about the genetic diversity and population structure in elite breeding material is of fundamental importance for the improvement of crops. The objectives of our study were to (a) examine the population structure and the genetic diversity in elite maize germplasm based on simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers, (b) compare these results with those obtained from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, and (c) compare the coancestry coefficient calculated from pedigree records with genetic distance estimates calculated from SSR and SNP markers. Our study was based on 1,537 elite maize inbred lines genotyped with 359 SSR and 8,244 SNP markers. The average number of alleles per locus, of group specific alleles, and the gene diversity (D) were higher for SSRs than for SNPs. Modified Roger’s distance (MRD) estimates and membership probabilities of the STRUCTURE matrices were higher for SSR than for SNP markers but the germplasm organization in four heterotic pools was consistent with STRUCTURE results based on SSRs and SNPs. MRD estimates calculated for the two marker systems were highly correlated (0.87). Our results suggested that the same conclusions regarding the structure and the diversity of heterotic pools could be drawn from both markers types. Furthermore, although our results suggested that the ratio of the number of SSRs and SNPs required to obtain MRD or D estimates with similar precision is not constant across the various precision levels, we propose that between 7 and 11 times more SNPs than SSRs should be used for analyzing population structure and genetic diversity