Forecasting the PSBR outside government: the IFS perspective

Expectations regarding the future state of the public finances are vital for public policy formation. The UK experience has been that forecasts of the PSBR have been beset with problems since the mid-1980s. Independent assessments of the accuracy and plausibility of public finance forecasts are an important check on government forecasts and serve to increase public debate over government finance issues. We examine the success of various possible methods available to those outside government.

Mind the Gap

Assemble is a young practice with a background in a range of disciplines: architecture, film, electrical engineering, carpentry, and stone carving, to name just a few. Our first project, the Cineroleum, turned a roadside site into a cinema while our second, Folly for a Flyover, was more ambitious, bringing activity to a space below a motorway on the Olympic fringe

Discrete adjoint approximations with shocks

This paper is concerned with the formulation and discretisation of adjoint equations when there are shocks in the underlying solution to the original nonlinear hyperbolic p.d.e. For the model problem of a scalar unsteady one-dimensional p.d.e. with a convex flux function, it is shown that the analytic formulation of the adjoint equations requires the imposition of an interior boundary condition along any shock. A 'discrete adjoint' discretisation is defined by requiring the adjoint equations to give the same value for the linearised functional as a linearisation of the original nonlinear discretisation. It is demonstrated that convergence requires increasing numerical smoothing of any shocks. Without this, any consistent discretisation of the adjoint equations without the inclusion of the shock boundary condition may yield incorrect values for the adjoint solution

Native and non-native speakers of English in TESOL

In her chapter, Wicaksono reviews the social and cognitive arguments that have been advanced to categorise users of English as either ‘native’ or ‘non-native’ (primarily place and age). She points out that ‘what counts as English’ is taken as a given, in both the scholarly literature and in TESOL professional practice, and argues that the ‘native’/‘non-native’ distinction is untenable once the monolithic conceptualisations underpinning it are exposed. Her chapter is also a call to action, suggesting ways in which raising ontological awareness can be embedded in teacher training and hiring practices

Underreamer mechanics

In the oil and gas industry, an underreamer is a tool used to extend and enlarge the diameter of a previously-drilled bore. The problem proposed to the Study Group is to obtain appropriate mathematical models of underreamer dynamics, in forms that will lead to feasible computation. The modes of dynamics of interest are torsional, lateral and axial. This report describes some initial models, two of which are developed in more detail: one for the propagation of torsional waves along the drill string and their reflection from contact points with the well bore; and one for the dynamic coupling between the underreamer and the drill bit during drilling

The Natural History of Insomnia: Acute Insomnia and First-onset Depression

Study Objectives: While many studies have examined the association between insomnia and depression, no studies have evaluated these associations 1) within a narrow time frame, 2) with specific reference to acute & chronic insomnia, and 3) using polysomnography. In the present study, the association between insomnia and first-onset depression was evaluated taking into account these considerations. Design: A mixed-model inception design. Setting: Academic research laboratory. Participants: Fifty-four individuals (acute insomnia (n=33), normal sleepers (n=21)) with no reported history of a sleep disorder, chronic medical condition, or psychiatric illness. Interventions: N/A Measurements and Results: Participants were assessed at baseline (two nights of polysomnography and psychometric measures of stress and mood) and insomnia and depression status were reassessed at 3 months. Individuals with acute insomnia exhibited more stress, poorer mood, worse subjective sleep continuity, increased N2 sleep and decreased N3 sleep. Individuals that transitioned to chronic insomnia exhibited (at baseline) shorter REM Latencies and reduced N3 sleep. Individuals that exhibited this pattern, in the transition from acute to chronic insomnia, were also more likely to develop first-onset depression (9.26%) as compared to those who remitted from insomnia (1.85%) or were normal sleepers (1.85%). Conclusion: The transition from acute to chronic insomnia is presaged by baseline differences in sleep architecture that have, in the past, been ascribed to Major Depression, either as heritable traits or as acquired traits from prior episodes of depression. The present findings suggest that the “sleep architecture stigmata” of depression may actually develop over the course transitioning from acute to chronic insomnia

Accelerated convergence to steady state by gradual far-field damping

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76495/1/AIAA-11054-168.pd

Taking the LEAP (Learner Engaged Advising Programs): VCCS Advising Practices and Recommendations

The Virginia Community College System (VCCS) administration identified the need for adequate and proactive advising programs to foster student success. This paper presents a review of “best practices” in advising to determine commonalities, provides a comparison with current VCCS advising practices, and offers recommendations that support the goal of ensuring high quality advising programs