Does the Arctic Amplification peak this decade?

Temperatures rise faster in the Arctic than on global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. While this is well established from observations and model simulations, projections of future climate (here: RCP8.5) with models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) also indicate that the Arctic Amplification has a maximum. We show this by means of an Arctic Amplification factor (AAF), which we define as the ratio of Arctic mean to global mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. The SAT anomalies are referenced to the period 1960-1980 and smoothed by a 30-year running mean. For October, the multi-model ensemble-mean AAF reaches a maximum in 2017. The maximum moves however to later years as Arctic winter progresses: for the autumn mean SAT (September to November) the maximum AAF is found in 2028 and for winter (December to February) in 2060. Arctic Amplification is driven, amongst others, by the ice-albedo feedback (IAF) as part of the more general surface albedo feedback (involving clouds, snow cover, vegetation changes) and temperature effects (Planck and lapse-rate feedbacks).We note that sea ice retreat and the associated warming of the summer Arctic Ocean are not only an integral part of the IAF but are also involved in the other drivers. In the CMIP5 simulations, the timing of the AAF maximum coincides with the period of fastest ice retreat for the respective month. Presence of at least some sea ice is crucial for the IAF to be effective because of the contrast in surface albedo between ice and open water and the need to turn ocean warming into ice melt. Once large areas of the Arctic Ocean are ice-free, the IAF should be less effective. We thus hypothesize that the ice retreat significantly affects AAF variability and forces a decline of its magnitude after at least half of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free and the ice cover becomes basically seasonal

The Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system is entering a seasonal regime: Implications for future Arctic amplification

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. The northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer

Recirculating flow in a basin with closed f/h contours

A general circulation model is used to study the time evolution of a rotating, weakly baroclinic fluid in a basin with sloping sidewalls. Contours of f/h, where f is the Coriolis parameter and h is the depth of the fluid, are closed in this model. The fluid is forced by a localized source of positive vorticity. The initial response is a narrow, recirculating cell that resembles a β-plume modified by bathymetry. Such cells have been found in previous studies and have been linked to the recirculation cells observed in the subpolar North Atlantic. However, this is not a steady solution in this basin with closed f/h contours, and the circulation evolves into a gyre that encircles the basin. The time at which this transition occurs depends on the Rossby number, with higher Rossby numbers transitioning earlier. Based on the budget of potential vorticity, an argument is made that the western boundary is not long enough to drain significant vorticity from the flow and therefore a bathymetric β-plume is not a steady solution. A similar argument suggests that the Labrador Sea cannot sustain steady, linear, barotropic recirculations either. We speculate that the observed recirculations depend on inertial separation at sharp bathymetric gradients to break the assumption of linearity, which leads to significant viscous dissipation

Fates and Travel Times of Denmark Strait Overflow Water in the Irminger Basin*

The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) supplies about one-third of the North Atlantic Deep Water and is critical to global thermohaline circulation. Knowledge of the pathways of DSO through the Irminger Basin and its transformation there is still incomplete, however. The authors deploy over 10 000 Lagrangian particles at the Denmark Strait in a high-resolution ocean model to study these issues. First, the particle trajectories show that the mean position and potential density of dense waters cascading over the Denmark Strait sill evolve consistently with hydrographic observations. These sill particles transit the Irminger Basin to the Spill Jet section (65.25°N) in 5–7 days and to the Angmagssalik section (63.5°N) in 2–3 weeks. Second, the dense water pathways on the continental shelf are consistent with observations and particles released on the shelf in the strait constitute a significant fraction of the dense water particles recorded at the Angmagssalik section within 60 days (~25%). Some particles circulate on the shelf for several weeks before they spill off the shelf break and join the overflow from the sill. Third, there are two places where the water density following particle trajectories decreases rapidly due to intense mixing: to the southwest of the sill and southwest of the Kangerdlugssuaq Trough on the continental slope. After transformation in these places, the overflow particles exhibit a wide range of densities

Introduction to the Special Issue on the New Arctic Ocean

One hundred and thirty years ago, Fridtjof Nansen, the Norwegian polar explorer and scientist, set off on a bold three-year journey to investigate the unknown Arctic Ocean. The expedition relied on a critical technological development: a small, strong, and maneuverable vessel, powered by sail and an engine, with an endurance of five years for twelve men. His intellectual curiosity and careful observations led to an early glimpse of the Arctic Ocean’s circulation and its unique ecosystem. Some of Nansen’s findings on sea ice and the penetration of Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean established a benchmark against which we have measured profound changes over the past few decades. In contrast, little was known about the Arctic Ocean’s ecosystem processes prior to the onset of anthropogenic climate change. Nansen’s successes, which paved the way for subsequent research, were gained in part from Indigenous Greenlanders who taught him how to survive in this harsh environment.</jats:p

Wintertime observations of Subtropical Mode Water formation within the Gulf Stream

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L02607, doi:10.1029/2008GL035918.We study the structure of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) within the eastward-flowing Gulf Stream as it forms during strong winter cooling. Shipboard observations using SeaSoar and ADCP reveal that while active mixing by gravitational instabilities is common, large vertical and lateral shears of the Gulf Stream play a central role in determination of the modes of active mixing. Evidence is presented that low static stability and large vertical shear can combine to cause slantwise convection/symmetric instabilities, while the large anticyclonic shears to the south of the Gulf Stream core can cause low absolute vorticity and precondition the Ertel potential vorticity to be small and more susceptible to instabilities. The area of active mixing driven by surface forcing in the presences of shear occupies a swath 50–90 km wide immediately south of the Gulf Stream core at the northern edge of the Sargasso Sea.Support came from the National Science Foundation grants OCE-0424865 (TJ and FB) and OCE-0549699 (LT)

Coastal trapped waves and other subinertial variability along the Southeast Greenland coast in a realistic numerical simulation

Ocean currents along the Southeast Greenland Coast play an important role in the climate system. They carry dense water over the Denmark Strait sill, fresh water from the Arctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet into the subpolar ocean, and warm Atlantic water into Greenland’s fjords, where it can interact with outlet glaciers. Observational evidence from moorings shows that the circulation in this region displays substantial subinertial variability (typically with periods of several days). For the dense water flowing over the Denmark Strait sill, this variability augments the time-mean transport. It has been suggested that the subinertial variability found in observations is associated with Coastal Trapped Waves, whose properties depend on bathymetry, stratification, and the mean flow. Here, we use the output of a high-resolution realistic simulation to diagnose and characterize subinertial variability in sea surface height and velocity along the coast. The results show that the subinertial signals are coherent over hundreds of kilometers along the shelf. We find Coastal Trapped Waves on the shelf and along the shelf break in two subinertial frequency bands—at periods of 1–3 days and 5–18 days—that are consistent with a combination of Mode I waves and higher modes. Furthermore, we find that northeasterly barrier winds may trigger the 5–18 day shelf waves, whereas the 1–3 day variability is linked to high wind speeds over Sermilik Deep

Friction, frontogenesis, and the stratification of the surface mixed layer

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 38 (2008): 2501-2518, doi:10.1175/2008JPO3797.1.The generation and destruction of stratification in the surface mixed layer of the ocean is understood to result from vertical turbulent transport of buoyancy and momentum driven by air–sea fluxes and stresses. In this paper, it is shown that the magnitude and penetration of vertical fluxes are strongly modified by horizontal gradients in buoyancy and momentum. A classic example is the strong restratification resulting from frontogenesis in regions of confluent flow. Frictional forces acting on a baroclinic current either imposed externally by a wind stress or caused by the spindown of the current itself also modify the stratification by driving Ekman flows that differentially advect density. Ekman flow induced during spindown always tends to restratify the fluid, while wind-driven Ekman currents will restratify or destratify the mixed layer if the wind stress has a component up or down front (i.e., directed against or with the geostrophic shear), respectively. Scalings are constructed for the relative importance of friction versus frontogenesis in the restratification of the mixed layer and are tested using numerical experiments of mixed layer fronts forced by both winds and a strain field. The scalings suggest and the numerical experiments confirm that for wind stress magnitudes, mixed layer depths, and cross-front density gradients typical of the ocean, wind-induced friction often dominates frontogenesis in the modification of the stratification of the upper ocean. The experiments reveal that wind-induced destratification is weaker in magnitude than restratification because the stratification generated by up-front winds confines the turbulent stress to a depth shallower than the Ekman layer, which enhances the frictional force, Ekman flow, and differential advection of density. Frictional destratification is further reduced over restratification because the stress associated with the geostrophic shear at the surface tends to compensate a down-front wind stress.This research was supported by NSF Grants OCE-0549699 and OCE-0612058 (L.T.) and OCE-0612143 (R.F)

Lagrangian perspective on the origins of Denmark Strait Overflow

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8), (2020): 2393-2414, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0210.1.The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is an important contributor to the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Determining DSO formation and its pathways is not only important for local oceanography but also critical to estimating the state and variability of the AMOC. Despite prior attempts to understand the DSO sources, its upstream pathways and circulation remain uncertain due to short-term (3–5 days) variability. This makes it challenging to study the DSO from observations. Given this complexity, this study maps the upstream pathways and along-pathway changes in its water properties, using Lagrangian backtracking of the DSO sources in a realistic numerical ocean simulation. The Lagrangian pathways confirm that several branches contribute to the DSO from the north such as the East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC (sEGC), and the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ). Moreover, the model results reveal additional pathways from south of Iceland, which supplied over 16% of the DSO annually and over 25% of the DSO during winter of 2008, when the NAO index was positive. The southern contribution is about 34% by the end of March. The southern pathways mark a more direct route from the near-surface subpolar North Atlantic to the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and needs to be explored further, with in situ observations.This work was financially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant Numbers OAC-1835640, OCE-1633124, OCE-1433448, and OCE-1259210

Mesoscale mixing of the Denmark Strait Overflow in the Irminger Basin

Highlights: • Water mass transformation in Denmark Strait Overflow is localized in space/time • High transformation co-locates with maxima in eddy velocity variance and shear • Overflow eddies modulate the transformation, eddy heat flux divergence and shear Abstract: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is a major export route for dense waters from the Nordic Seas forming the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an important element of the climate system. Mixing processes along the DSO pathway influence its volume transport and properties contributing to the variability of the deep overturning circulation. They are poorly sampled by observations however which hinders development of a proper DSO representation in global circulation models. We employ a high resolution regional ocean model of the Irminger Basin to quantify impact of the mesoscale flows on DSO mixing focusing on geographical localization and local time–modulation of water property changes. The model reproduces the observed bulk warming of the DSO plume 100–200 km downstream of the Denmark Strait sill. It also reveals that mesoscale variability of the overflow (‘DSO-eddies’, of 20-30 km extent and a time scale of 2–5 day) modulates water property changes and turbulent mixing, diagnosed with the vertical shear of horizontal velocity and the eddy heat flux divergence. The space–time localization of the DSO mixing and warming and the role of coherent mesoscale structures should be explored by turbulence measurements and factored into the coarse circulation models