Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge about infectious disease dynamics with the subjective opinion of the researcher who develops and refines the model and often also adjusts model outputs. Developing a forecast model is difficult, resource- and time-consuming. It is therefore worth asking what modelling is able to add beyond the subjective opinion of the researcher alone. To investigate this, we analysed different real-time forecasts of cases of and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland over a 1-4 week horizon submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub. We compared crowd forecasts elicited from researchers and volunteers, against a) forecasts from two semi-mechanistic models based on common epidemiological assumptions and b) the ensemble of all other models submitted to the Forecast Hub. We found crowd forecasts, despite being overconfident, to outperform all other methods across all forecast horizons when forecasting cases (weighted interval score relative to the Hub ensemble 2 weeks ahead: 0.89). Forecasts based on computational models performed comparably better when predicting deaths (rel. WIS 1.26), suggesting that epidemiological modelling and human judgement can complement each other in important ways

Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.

Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge about infectious disease dynamics with the subjective opinion of the researcher who develops and refines the model and often also adjusts model outputs. Developing a forecast model is difficult, resource- and time-consuming. It is therefore worth asking what modelling is able to add beyond the subjective opinion of the researcher alone. To investigate this, we analysed different real-time forecasts of cases of and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland over a 1-4 week horizon submitted to the German and Polish Forecast Hub. We compared crowd forecasts elicited from researchers and volunteers, against a) forecasts from two semi-mechanistic models based on common epidemiological assumptions and b) the ensemble of all other models submitted to the Forecast Hub. We found crowd forecasts, despite being overconfident, to outperform all other methods across all forecast horizons when forecasting cases (weighted interval score relative to the Hub ensemble 2 weeks ahead: 0.89). Forecasts based on computational models performed comparably better when predicting deaths (rel. WIS 1.26), suggesting that epidemiological modelling and human judgement can complement each other in important ways

Optical measurement of glutamate release robustly reports short-term plasticity at a fast central synapse

IntroductionRecently developed fluorescent neurotransmitter indicators have enabled direct measurements of neurotransmitter in the synaptic cleft. Precise optical measurements of neurotransmitter release may be used to make inferences about presynaptic function independent of electrophysiological measurements.MethodsHere, we express iGluSnFR, a genetically encoded glutamate reporter in mouse spiral ganglion neurons to compare electrophysiological and optical readouts of presynaptic function and short-term synaptic plasticity at the endbulb of Held synapse.ResultsWe show iGluSnFR robustly and approximately linearly reports glutamate release from the endbulb of Held during synaptic transmission and allows assessment of short-term plasticity during high-frequency train stimuli. Furthermore, we show that iGluSnFR expression slightly alters the time course of spontaneous postsynaptic currents, but is unlikely to impact measurements of evoked synchronous release of many synaptic vesicles.DiscussionWe conclude that monitoring glutamate with optical sensors at fast and large central synapses like the endbulb of Held is feasible and allows robust quantification of some, but not all aspects of glutamate release

Data_Sheet_1_Optical measurement of glutamate release robustly reports short-term plasticity at a fast central synapse.pdf

IntroductionRecently developed fluorescent neurotransmitter indicators have enabled direct measurements of neurotransmitter in the synaptic cleft. Precise optical measurements of neurotransmitter release may be used to make inferences about presynaptic function independent of electrophysiological measurements.MethodsHere, we express iGluSnFR, a genetically encoded glutamate reporter in mouse spiral ganglion neurons to compare electrophysiological and optical readouts of presynaptic function and short-term synaptic plasticity at the endbulb of Held synapse.ResultsWe show iGluSnFR robustly and approximately linearly reports glutamate release from the endbulb of Held during synaptic transmission and allows assessment of short-term plasticity during high-frequency train stimuli. Furthermore, we show that iGluSnFR expression slightly alters the time course of spontaneous postsynaptic currents, but is unlikely to impact measurements of evoked synchronous release of many synaptic vesicles.DiscussionWe conclude that monitoring glutamate with optical sensors at fast and large central synapses like the endbulb of Held is feasible and allows robust quantification of some, but not all aspects of glutamate release.</p