Theory and observations of bores in the nocturnal environment of the Great Plains

Accurate representation of bores in forecast models is a challenge. This challenge is of considerable interest to both the operational and the research communities because bores are capable of producing vertical displacements of air sufficient for initiating convection. While the research presented here does not offer improvements to forecast models, it lays a foundation for future numerical studies focused on the life cycle of nocturnal thunderstorms and the development of forecast tools designed to predict the onset of bore-initiated convection. Although the current research may be relevant to similar nocturnal convection systems in other regions of the world, the scope of this research is limited to the Southern Great Plains of the United States, where the forecast skill for nocturnal thunderstorms is relatively poor. The datasets for the current study are predominantly from two field projects over the Great Plains. The first dataset is from the International H20 Project (IHOP_2002), and the dataset is used to characterize the origin of radar fine lines in reflectivity as density currents, bores or other nocturnal phenomena. Subsequently, the frequency of bores observed in IHOP_2002 data is compared with a statistical model applied to hydraulic theory. The longevity of the observed bores and their preferred direction is compared with environmental winds and wave ducting properties using linear wave theory. Next, using the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) dataset, a method for forecasting the generation of a bore and subsequent bore-initiated convection is proposed and tested on a 3 June 2015 case study. Two techniques based on hydraulic and linear wave theory are used as part of the method to forecast the vertical displacement of parcels. The results indicate that density currents often generated bores in the nocturnal environment observed during IHOP_2002. This result is consistent with hydraulic theory which characterizes the interaction between a density current and the observed environment as partially blocked, leading to the generation of a bore. Of the parameters used to evaluate the flow regime, the inversion properties had the most influence over changes in the flow regime with time. Once a bore developed, the maintenance of a wave duct is diagnosed with a two-layer model based on the Scorer parameter. The curvature of the horizontal wind with height is a component of the Scorer parameter and the curvature associated with the nocturnal low level jet was found to be the primary mechanism for maintaining a wave duct. Convective instability parameters calculated from pre- and post-bore environment soundings are compared to gauge if a bore would initiate convection. The post bore soundings are generated with one of two techniques that mimic the parcel displacement through a bore. The technique based on hydraulic theory overestimates the displacement while the technique based on linear wave theory severely underestimates the displacement. These findings are part of a new line of investigation into the development of reliable tools to predict bore-initiated and bore-maintained convection

The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

The central Great Plains region in North America has a nocturnal maximum in warm-season precipitation. Much of this precipitation comes from organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This nocturnal maximum is counterintuitive in the sense that convective activity over the Great Plains is out of phase with the local generation of CAPE by solar heating of the surface. The lower troposphere in this nocturnal environment is typically characterized by a low-level jet (LLJ) just above a stable boundary layer (SBL), and convective available potential energy (CAPE) values that peak above the SBL, resulting in convection that may be elevated, with source air decoupled from the surface. Nocturnal MCS-induced cold pools often trigger undular bores and solitary waves within the SBL. A full understanding of the nocturnal precipitation maximum remains elusive, although it appears that bore-induced lifting and the LLJ may be instrumental to convection initiation and the maintenance of MCSs at night. To gain insight into nocturnal MCSs, their essential ingredients, and paths toward improving the relatively poor predictive skill of nocturnal convection in weather and climate models, a large, multiagency field campaign called Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) was conducted in 2015. PECAN employed three research aircraft, an unprecedented coordinated array of nine mobile scanning radars, a fixed S-band radar, a unique mesoscale network of lower-tropospheric profiling systems called the PECAN Integrated Sounding Array (PISA), and numerous mobile-mesonet surface weather stations. The rich PECAN dataset is expected to improve our understanding and prediction of continental nocturnal warm-season precipitation. This article provides a summary of the PECAN field experiment and preliminary findings

Report from Working Group 3: Beyond the standard model physics at the HL-LHC and HE-LHC

This is the third out of five chapters of the final report [1] of the Workshop on Physics at HL-LHC, and perspectives on HE-LHC [2]. It is devoted to the study of the potential, in the search for Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics, of the High Luminosity (HL) phase of the LHC, defined as $3$ ab$^{-1}$ of data taken at a centre-of-mass energy of 14 TeV, and of a possible future upgrade, the High Energy (HE) LHC, defined as $15$ ab$^{-1}$ of data at a centre-of-mass energy of 27 TeV. We consider a large variety of new physics models, both in a simplified model fashion and in a more model-dependent one. A long list of contributions from the theory and experimental (ATLAS, CMS, LHCb) communities have been collected and merged together to give a complete, wide, and consistent view of future prospects for BSM physics at the considered colliders. On top of the usual standard candles, such as supersymmetric simplified models and resonances, considered for the evaluation of future collider potentials, this report contains results on dark matter and dark sectors, long lived particles, leptoquarks, sterile neutrinos, axion-like particles, heavy scalars, vector-like quarks, and more. Particular attention is placed, especially in the study of the HL-LHC prospects, to the detector upgrades, the assessment of the future systematic uncertainties, and new experimental techniques. The general conclusion is that the HL-LHC, on top of allowing to extend the present LHC mass and coupling reach by $20-50\%$ on most new physics scenarios, will also be able to constrain, and potentially discover, new physics that is presently unconstrained. Moreover, compared to the HL-LHC, the reach in most observables will, generally more than double at the HE-LHC, which may represent a good candidate future facility for a final test of TeV-scale new physics

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

On the Dynamics of Atmospheric Bores

The dynamics of a prototypical atmospheric bore are investigated through a series of two-dimensional numerical simulations and linear theory. These simulations demonstrate that the bore dynamics are inherently finite amplitude. Although the environment supports linear trapped waves, the supported waves propagate in roughly the opposite direction to that of the bore. Qualitative analysis of the Scorer parameter can therefore give misleading indications of the potential for wave trapping, and linear internal gravity wave dynamics do not govern the behavior of the bore. The presence of a layer of enhanced static stability below a deep layer of lower stability, as would be created by a nocturnal inversion, was not necessary for the development of a bore. The key environmental factor allowing bore propagation was the presence of a low-level jet directed opposite to the movement of the bore. Significant turbulence developed in the layer between the jet maximum and the surface, which reduced the low-level static stability behind the bore. Given the essential role of jets with strong wind shear, and given that idealized bores may persist in environments in which the static stability is constant with height, shallow-water dynamics do not appear to be quantitatively applicable to atmospheric bores propagating against low-level jets, although there are qualitative analogies.Grant N00014-17-1-2660 from the Office of Naval Research (ONR

Bore-ing into Nocturnal Convection

There has been a recent wave of attention given to atmospheric bores in order to understand how they evolve and initiate and maintain convection during the night. This surge is attributable to data collected during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. A salient aspect of the PECAN project is its focus on using multiple observational platforms to better understand convective outflow boundaries that intrude into the stable boundary layer and induce the development of atmospheric bores. The intent of this article is threefold: 1) to educate the reader on current and future foci of bore research, 2) to present how PECAN observations will facilitate aforementioned research, and 3) to stimulate multidisciplinary collaborative efforts across other closely related fields in an effort to push the limitations of prediction of nocturnal convection

Bore-ing into Nocturnal Convection

There has been a recent wave of attention given to atmospheric bores in order to understand how they evolve and initiate and maintain convection during the night. This surge is attributable to data collected during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. A salient aspect of the PECAN project is its focus on using multiple observational platforms to better understand convective outflow boundaries that intrude into the stable boundary layer and induce the development of atmospheric bores. The intent of this article is threefold: 1) to educate the reader on current and future foci of bore research, 2) to present how PECAN observations will facilitate aforementioned research, and 3) to stimulate multidisciplinary collaborative efforts across other closely related fields in an effort to push the limitations of prediction of nocturnal convection