Assessment Of WRF Simulated Precipitation By Meteorological Regimes

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis

The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations

We propose a simple model of expectation formation with three distinct deviations from fully rational expectations. In particular, forecasters’ expectations are sticky, extrapolate the most recent news about the current period, and depend on the lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of Professional Forecaster as well as in the Livingston Survey, and that their magnitudes depend on the forecasting horizon. Moreover, in an over-identified econometric specification, we find that the restriction on coefficients implied by our model is always close to being satisfied and in most cases not rejected. We also stress the point that using the past consensus forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an own rational forecast to fail

Surface enhancement of oxygen exchange and diffusion in the ionic conductor La2Mo2O9

Isotopic surface oxygen exchange and its subsequent diffusion have been measured using secondary ion mass spectrometry in the fast ionic conductor La2Mo2O9. A silver coating was applied to the sample surface to enhance the surface exchange process for dry oxygen. Contrary to previous studies performed using a wet atmosphere, no grain boundary diffusion tail was observed under these optimized dry exchange conditions. The activation energy for oxygen diffusion was found to be 0.66(+/- 0.09) eV at high temperature (>570 degrees C), and 1.25(+/- 0.01)eV at low temperature (<570 degrees C). Time-of-Flight secondary ion mass spectrometry was employed to investigate the correlation between the silver coating and the O-18 concentration on the sample surface. A close correlation between the presence of silver and oxygen incorporation on the surface was observed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A peer-to-peer network to support scholarly communication

The number of scientific journals and thereby the number of published articles grew with an enormous rate in the last century (e.g. Price 1986; Henderson 2002). In the second half of the 20th century the system seemed to abut against its boundaries, because in relation to research budgets, library budgets did not grow fast enough to cover all the scientific output produced. Price increases well above the inflation rate set by commercial publishers that bundle disproportionately high market power – especially for journals in the Science-Technical- Medicine-Sector in the last thirty years – intensified the situation even further. This situation is known as the serial crisis. New Information and Communication Technology (ICT) driven publication models are established and seem to be a promising way out of the crisis because they reduce distribution costs significantly. Especially the open access (OA) movement that advocates free electronic access to scientific output is subject to a fierce public debate. In this paper we will detail problems associated with OA and suggest a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) system that supports electronic scholarly communication as a tool to address the economic problems mentioned above

A Regime-Based Evaluation of Southern and Northern Great Plains Warm-Season Precipitation Events in WRF

A competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM) is used to objectively identify synoptic patterns in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for warm-season (April-September) precipitation events over the Southern and Northern Great Plains (SGP/NGP) from 2007 to 2014. Classifications for both regions demonstrate contrast in dominant synoptic patterns ranging from extratropical cyclones to subtropical ridges, all of which have preferred months of occurrence. Precipitation from deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations run by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) are evaluated against National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV observations. The SGP features larger observed precipitation amount, intensity, and coverage, as well as better model performance than the NGP. Both regions' simulated convective rain intensity and coverage have good agreement with observations, whereas the stratiform rain (SR) is more problematic with weaker intensity and larger coverage. Further evaluation based on SOM regimes shows that WRF bias varies with the type of meteorological forcing, which can be traced to differences in the diurnal cycle and properties of stratiform and convective rain. The higher performance scores are generally associated with the extratropical cyclone condition than the subtropical ridge. Of the six SOM classes over both regions, the largest precipitation oversimulation is found for SR dominated classes, whereas a nocturnal negative precipitation bias exists for classes featuring upscale growth of convection.Climate Model Development and Validation (CMDV) program - Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science under University of Arizona [DE-SC0017015]; NOAA R2O project at the University of North Dakota [NA15NWS468004]; Climate Model Development and Validation program; Water Cycle and Climate Extreme Modeling science focus area - Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science; U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-AC05-76RL01830]6 month embargo; published online: 2 July 2019This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Innovationsmanagement für Kooperationen

This publication deals with the management of cooperative innovation activities. The author identifies individual management tasks and designs concrete supporting instruments and methods. The system to be designed by management activities can be understood as an information system which provides the partners of innovation cooperation actionable information. The book is aimed at teachers and students of business administration with a focus on innovation and collaboration management. Practitioners receive a basic insight into the latest management concepts

Der Einsatz von Content-Management-Systemen beim crossmedialen Publizieren in Fachverlagen: Ergebnisse einer Erhebung

Zahlreiche neue Endgeräte und die damit verbundene Ausdifferenzierung von Publikationskanälen (Print, Web, Apps) stellen Verlage vor die Herausforderung ihre Inhalte effizient für die verschiedenen Kanäle aufzubereiten (crossmediales Publizieren). Es stellt sich die Frage, wie weit das crossmediale Publizieren mit Hilfe geeigneter Softwaresysteme in der verlegerischen Praxis bereits verbreitet ist. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine Befragung unter Fachverlegern durchgeführt. Als Fazit kann festgehalten werden, dass das crossmediale Publizieren und insbesondere das systemunterstützte crossmediale Publizieren in der Verlagswelt nach wie vor einen geringen Reifegrad aufweist

Spectroscopic investigation of the effect of polyphenolic compounds on the amyloid-[beta] protein

Aggregation of the amyloid-[beta] (A[beta]) protein is associated with the development of Alzheimer's disease. A[beta] is a 39-43 residue cleavage product of the amyloid precursor protein (APP). A[beta] aggregates to produce insoluble plaques in the brain, which are composed of cross [beta]-sheet structured fibrils. Various polyphenolic compounds, both naturally occurring and synthetic, have been shown to interfere with A[beta] aggregation. To evaluate the ability of specific polyphenols to prevent A[beta] aggregation, this investigation utilized nordihydroguaiaretic acid, curcumin, rosmarinic acid, resveratrol, piceatannol, and diethylstilbestrol. These polyphenols differ in the number of ring substituents and the atom linker between the rings. The interaction of A[beta] with the polyphenolic compounds was analyzed using circular dichroism (CD) and deep ultraviolet resonance Raman (dUVRR) spectroscopies. The polyphenols diethylstilbestrol, resveratrol, and piceatannol have increasing numbers of hydroxyl substituents on their rings, having two, three, and four respectively. It was found that with increasing number of hydroxyl ring substituents, the protein remained predominantly disordered and prevented formation of [beta]-structure in the protein and aided in the destabilization of pre-formed A[beta] fibrils. Decreasing the number of hydroxyl substituents increases the likelihood of [beta]-sheet formation, prevented destabilization of pre-formed A[beta] fibrils, and induced loss of stability of the protein. The polyphenols nordihydroguaiaretic acid, curcumin, and rosmarinic acid have increasing polarity respectively in the chain linker between the phenolic rings. Each of these polyphenols have four ring substituents and have four to six atoms in their chain linker. It was found that with increasing the polarity of the linker, the protein had a greater tendency to form a [beta]-structure, however pre-formed A[beta] fibrils were destabilized efficiently by all three polyphenols. Though a nonpolar chain linker pushed fibrillar protein toward a more disordered structure initially, the final state was similar regardless of added polyphenol.Includes biblographical reference

"Aufschlagen, blättern, lesen - really just ONE click away?" Herausforderungen digitaler Umsetzungs- und Distributionsstrategien von Fachmagazinen

Der Beitrag beschreibt ein Referenzmodell zur Bestimmung der Usability digitaler Fachmagazine, das Verlage dabei unterstützt, Produkte zu evaluieren und/oder so zu gestalten, dass die digitalen Eigenschaften einen für Leser wahrnehmbaren Nutzen aufweisen. Das Modell beruht auf einer mehrdimensionalen Zielgruppenanalyse und dem 5-Planes-Model zur User Experience. Die Autoren stellen ein empirisches Mehrmethodendesign zur Bestimmung eines Usability-Scores oder Reifegrades vor, mit dem das Modell derzeit anhand von acht Fachmagazinen getestet wird und das neben halboffenen Experteninterviews zahlreiche Elemente aus der Usability-Forschung wie z.B. Heuristische Evaluation und Eyetracking umfasst. Erste Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die vom Leser gewünschten Inhalte dabei keineswegs "just ONE click away" sind und sowohl pragmatische wie auch hedonische Qualität noch Verbesserungsbedarf aufweisen.The article describes a reference model for determining the usability of digital specialist journals that helps publishers to evaluate products and/or design them in such a way that the digital features support a benefit perceivable to readers. The model is based on a multidimensional target group analysis and the 5-planes model for user experience. The authors present an empirical multi-method design for the determination of a usability score or degree of maturity, with which the model is currently being tested on the basis of eight specialist journals and which, in addition to semi-open expert interviews, includes numerous elements from usability research such as heuristic evaluation and eye tracking. First results show that the content desired by the reader is by no means "just ONE click away" and that pragmatic as well as hedonic quality still needs improvement