From Austerity to Expansion? Consolidation, Budget Surpluses, and the Decline of Fiscal Capacity

In the wake of the financial crisis, most developed countries have entered a period of prolonged budgetary austerity. While the success of austerity programs is still unclear, it is also an open question what success would mean for activist government in the long run. This paper rejects the progressive belief that successful fiscal consolidation will lead to a strengthening of fiscal capacity, arguing that consolidations transform the political context in which fiscal policy is made. By analyzing the evolution of public expenditure in six countries with sustained budget surpluses, it shows that while surpluses were mostly achieved through expenditure cuts, they were predominantly used for cutting taxes. While fiscal crises abated, their collateral damage to public expenditure remained. This result is further elaborated by a case study of the Swedish budget surplus. The paper concludes that consolidations can create a specific type of fiscal regime and thus have long-term consequences for the fiscal capacity of the state.Angesichts der Schuldenprobleme in vielen entwickelten Ländern befinden sich die meisten von ihnen in einer Phase lang anhaltender Austerität. Und während noch völlig unklar ist, ob die Sparprogramme Erfolg haben, werden sie immer wieder mit dem Versprechen verbunden, erfolgreiche Konsolidierungen würden zu einer Wiedergewinnung staatlicher Handlungsfähigkeit führen. Diese Studie verwirft diese „progressive Konsolidierungsthese“ auf Basis einer theoretischen und empirischen Analyse. Ihr Argument lautet, dass Haushaltskonsolidierungen den Kontext, in dem Fiskalpolitik gemacht wird, dauerhaft verändern. Zwar erhöhen sie fiskalische Spielräume, zugleich aber schränken sie politische Spielräume ein. Anhand von sechs Ländern mit dauerhaften Haushaltsüberschüssen wird gezeigt, dass diese Überschüsse durch Ausgabenkürzungen erzielt, aber für Steuersenkungen verwendet wurden. Die Kollateralschäden der Konsolidierung blieben über Jahre in den Budgets sichtbar. Dieses Ergebnis wird von einer Fallstudie zu den schwedischen Haushaltsüberschüssen bestätigt. Das Fazit der Untersuchung ist, dass Konsolidierungen zu einem Wechsel des fiskalischen Regimes führen können, wodurch die staatliche Handlungsfähigkeit langfristig beschränkt wird. Überschüsse sind insofern nicht Ausdruck wachsender Gestaltungsfreiheit, sondern schrumpfender Ambitionen des Staates.1 Introduction 2 The argument 3 Research design and case selection 4 Comparative results 5 The Swedish case up close 6 Conclusion Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Reference

Nonlinear wavefront reconstruction with convolutional neural networks for Fourier-based wavefront sensors

Fourier-based wavefront sensors, such as the Pyramid Wavefront Sensor (PWFS), are the current preference for high contrast imaging due to their high sensitivity. However, these wavefront sensors have intrinsic nonlinearities that constrain the range where conventional linear reconstruction methods can be used to accurately estimate the incoming wavefront aberrations. We propose to use Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for the nonlinear reconstruction of the wavefront sensor measurements. It is demonstrated that a CNN can be used to accurately reconstruct the nonlinearities in both simulations and a lab implementation. We show that solely using a CNN for the reconstruction leads to suboptimal closed loop performance under simulated atmospheric turbulence. However, it is demonstrated that using a CNN to estimate the nonlinear error term on top of a linear model results in an improved effective dynamic range of a simulated adaptive optics system. The larger effective dynamic range results in a higher Strehl ratio under conditions where the nonlinear error is relevant. This will allow the current and future generation of large astronomical telescopes to work in a wider range of atmospheric conditions and therefore reduce costly downtime of such facilities.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Asymmetric effects of group-based appeals: the case of the urban rural divide

Group-based identities are an important basis of political competition. Parties appeal consciously to specific social groups and these group-based appeals often improve the evaluation of parties and candidates. Studying place-based appeals, we advance the understanding of this strategy by distinguishing between dominant and subordinate social groups. Using two survey experiments in Germany and England, we show that group appeals improve candidate evaluation among subordinate (rural) voters. By contrast, appeals to the dominant (urban) group trigger a negative reaction. While urban citizens’ weaker local identities and lower place-based resentment partly explain this asymmetry, they mainly dislike group-based appeals because of their antagonistic nature. If the same policies are framed as benefiting urban and rural dwellers alike, candidate evaluation improves. Thus, people on the dominant side of a group divide reject a framing of politics as antagonistically structured by this divide, even if they identify with the dominant group

Simulating the efficacy of the implicit-electric-field-conjugation algorithm for the Roman Coronagraph with noise

The Roman Coronagraph is expected to perform its high-order wavefront sensing and control (HOWFSC) with a ground-in-the-loop scheme due to the computational complexity of the Electric-Field-Conjugation (EFC) algorithm. This scheme provides the flexibility to alter the HOWFSC algorithm for given science objectives. A new alternative implicit-EFC algorithm is of particular interest as it requires no optical model to create a dark-hole, making the final contrast independent of the model accuracy. The intended HOWFSC scheme involves running EFC while observing a bright star such as $\zeta$ Puppis to create the initial dark-hole, then slew to the science target while maintaining the contrast with low-order WFSC over the given observation. Given a similar scheme, the efficacy of iEFC is simulated for two coronagraph modes, namely the Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph (HLC) and the wide-field-of-view Shaped-Pupil-Coronagraph (SPC-WFOV). End-to-end physical optics models for each mode serve as the tool for the simulations. Initial monochromatic simulations are presented and compared with monochromatic EFC results obtained with the FALCO software. Various sets of calibration modes are tested to understand the optimal modes to use when generating an iEFC response matrix. Further iEFC simulations are performed using broadband images with the assumption that $\zeta$ Puppis is the stellar object being observed. Shot noise, read noise, and dark current are included in the broadband simulations to determine if iEFC could be a suitable alternative to EFC for the Roman Coronagraph.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figure

Generalised optical differentiation wavefront sensor: a sensitive high dynamic range wavefront sensor

Instrumentatio