Home-based care of low-risk febrile neutropenia in children-an implementation study in a tertiary paediatric hospital

BACKGROUND: Home-based management of low-risk febrile neutropenia (FN) is safe, improves quality of life and reduces healthcare expenditure. A formal low-risk paediatric program has not been implemented in Australia. We aimed to describe the implementation process and evaluate the clinical impact. METHOD: This prospective study incorporated three phases: implementation, intervention and evaluation. A low-risk FN implementation toolkit was developed, including a care-pathway, patient information, home-based assessment and educational resources. The program had executive-level endorsement, a multidisciplinary committee and a nurse specialist. Children with cancer and low-risk FN were eligible to be transferred home with a nurse visiting daily after an overnight period of observation for intravenous antibiotics. Low-risk patients were identified using a validated decision rule, and suitability for home-based care was determined using disease, chemotherapy and patient-level criteria. Plan-Do-Study-Act methodology was used to evaluate clinical impact and safety. RESULTS: Over 18 months, 292 children with FN were screened: 132 (45%) were low-risk and 63 (22%) were transferred to home-based care. Compared with pre-implementation there was a significant reduction in in-hospital median LOS (4.0 to 1.5 days, p < 0.001) and 291 in-hospital bed days were saved. Eight (13%) patients needed readmission and there were no adverse outcomes. A key barrier was timely screening of all patients and program improvements, including utilising the electronic medical record for patient identification, are planned. CONCLUSION: This program significantly reduces in-hospital LOS for children with low-risk FN. Ongoing evaluation will inform sustainability, identify areas for improvement and support national scale-up of the program

Individual participant data validation of the PICNICC prediction model for febrile neutropenia

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified approaches to managing cancer therapies and their consequent complications rely on accurate predictions to work effectively. The risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia is one such very common area of management in paediatric practice. Such rules are frequently produced and promoted without adequate confirmation of their accuracy. METHODS: An individual participant data meta-analytic validation of the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs In Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) prediction model for microbiologically documented infection in paediatric fever with neutropenia was undertaken. Pooled estimates were produced using random-effects meta-analysis of the area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration slope and ratios of expected versus observed cases (E/O). RESULTS: The PICNICC model was poorly predictive of microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in these validation cohorts. The pooled AUC-ROC was 0.59, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.78, tau2=0, compared with derivation value of 0.72, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76. There was poor discrimination (pooled slope estimate 0.03, 95% CI -0.19 to 0.26) and calibration in the large (pooled E/O ratio 1.48, 95% CI 0.87 to 2.1). Three different simple recalibration approaches failed to improve performance meaningfully. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis shows the PICNICC model should not be used at admission to predict MDI. Further work should focus on validating alternative prediction models. Validation across multiple cohorts from diverse locations is essential before widespread clinical adoption of such rules to avoid overtreating or undertreating children with fever with neutropenia

Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer : an external validation study

Background:The aim of this study was to validate the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) clinical decision rule (CDR) that predicts microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in children with cancer and fever and neutropenia (FN). We also investigated costs associated with current FN management strategies in Australia.Methods:Demographic, episode, outcome and cost data were retrospectively collected on 650 episodes of FN. We assessed the discrimination, calibration, sensitivity and specificity of the PICNICC CDR in our cohort compared with the derivation data set.Results:Using the original variable coefficients, the CDR performed poorly. After recalibration the PICNICC CDR had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve of 0.638 (95% CI 0.590-0.685) and calibration slope of 0.24. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the PICNICC CDR at presentation was 78.4%, 39.8%, 28.6% and 85.7%, respectively. For bacteraemia, the sensitivity improved to 85.2% and AUC-ROC to 0.71. Application at day 2, taking into consideration the proportion of MDI known (43%), further improved the sensitivity to 87.7%. Length of stay is the main contributor to cost of FN treatment, with an average cost per day of AUD 2183 in the low-risk group.Conclusions:For prediction of any MDI, the PICNICC rule did not perform as well at presentation in our cohort as compared with the derivation study. However, for bacteraemia, the predictive ability was similar to that of the derivation study, highlighting the importance of recalibration using local data. Performance also improved after an overnight period of observation. Implementation of a low-risk pathway, using the PICNICC CDR after a short period of inpatient observation, is likely to be safe and has the potential to reduce health-care expenditure

Re-evaluating and recalibrating predictors of bacterial infection in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia

Background Numerous paediatric febrile neutropenia (FN) clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been derived. Validation studies show reduced performance in external settings. We evaluated the association between variables common across published FN CDRs and bacterial infection and recalibrated existing CDRs using these data. Methods Prospective data from the Australian-PICNICC study which enrolled 858 FN episodes in children with cancer were used. Variables shown to be significant predictors of infection or adverse outcome in >1 CDR were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Recalibration included re-evaluation of beta-coefficients (logistic model) or recursive-partition analysis (tree-based models). Findings Twenty-five unique variables were identified across 17 FN CDRs. Fourteen were included in >1 CDR and 10 were analysed in our dataset. On univariate analysis, location, temperature, hypotension, rigors, severely unwell and decreasing platelets, white cell count, neutrophil count and monocyte count were significantly associated with bacterial infection. On multivariable analysis, decreasing platelets, increasing temperature and the appearance of being clinically unwell remained significantly associated. Five rules were recalibrated. Across all rules, recalibration increased the AUC-ROC and low-risk yield as compared to non-recalibrated data. For the SPOG-adverse event CDR, recalibration also increased sensitivity and specificity and external validation showed reproducibility. Interpretation Degree of marrow suppression (low platelets), features of inflammation (temperature) and clinical judgement (severely unwell) have been consistently shown to predict infection in children with FN. Recalibration of existing CDRs is a novel way to improve diagnostic performance of CDRs and maintain relevance over time

Risk stratification in children with cancer and febrile neutropenia: A national, prospective, multicentre validation of nine clinical decision rules

© 2019 Background: Reduced intensity treatment of low-risk febrile neutropenia (FN) in children with cancer is safe and improves quality of life. Identifying children with low-risk FN using a validated risk stratification strategy is recommended. This study prospectively validated nine FN clinical decision rules (CDRs) designed to predict infection or adverse outcome. Methods: Data were collected on consecutive FN episodes in this multicentre, prospective validation study. The reproducibility and discriminatory ability of each CDR in the validation cohort was compared to the derivation dataset and details of missed outcomes were reported. Findings: There were 858 FN episodes in 462 patients from eight hospitals included. Bacteraemia occurred in 111 (12·9%) and a non-bacteraemia microbiological documented infection in 185 (21·6%). Eight CDRs exhibited reproducibility and sensitivity ranged from 64% to 96%. Rules that had >85% sensitivity in predicting outcomes classified few patients (<20%) as low risk. For three CDRs predicting a composite outcome of any bacterial or viral infection, the sensitivity and discriminatory ability improved for prediction of bacterial infection alone. Across all CDRs designed to be implemented at FN presentation, the sensitivity improved at day 2 assessment. Interpretation: While reproducibility was observed in eight out of the nine CDRs, no rule perfectly differentiated between children with FN at high or low risk of infection. This is in keeping with other validation studies and highlights the need for additional safeguards against missed infections or adverse outcomes before implementation can be considered

Predicting microbiologically defined infection in febrile neutropenic episodes in children : global individual participant data multivariable meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia (FN), allows intensive management of high-risk cases and early discharge of low-risk cases. No single, internationally validated, prediction model of the risk of adverse outcomes exists for children and young people. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was undertaken to devise one. METHODS: The 'Predicting Infectious Complications in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) collaboration was formed by parent representatives, international clinical and methodological experts. Univariable and multivariable analyses, using random effects logistic regression, were undertaken to derive and internally validate a risk-prediction model for outcomes of episodes of FN based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation. RESULTS: Data came from 22 different study groups from 15 countries, of 5127 episodes of FN in 3504 patients. There were 1070 episodes in 616 patients from seven studies available for multivariable analysis. Univariable analyses showed associations with microbiologically defined infection (MDI) in many items, including higher temperature, lower white cell counts and acute myeloid leukaemia, but not age. Patients with osteosarcoma/Ewings sarcoma and those with more severe mucositis were associated with a decreased risk of MDI. The predictive model included: malignancy type, temperature, clinically 'severely unwell', haemoglobin, white cell count and absolute monocyte count. It showed moderate discrimination (AUROC 0.723, 95% confidence interval 0.711-0.759) and good calibration (calibration slope 0.95). The model was robust to bootstrap and cross-validation sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This new prediction model for risk of MDI appears accurate. It requires prospective studies assessing implementation to assist clinicians and parents/patients in individualised decision making

Procalcitonin and Interleukin-10 May Assist in Early Prediction of Bacteraemia in Children With Cancer and Febrile Neutropenia

ObjectivesFebrile neutropenia (FN) causes treatment disruption and unplanned hospitalization in children with cancer. Serum biomarkers are infrequently used to stratify these patients into high or low risk for serious infection. This study investigated plasma abundance of cytokines in children with FN and their ability to predict bacteraemia.MethodsThirty-three plasma cytokines, C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) were measured using ELISA assays in samples taken at FN presentation (n = 79) and within 8-24 h (Day 2; n = 31). Optimal thresholds for prediction of bacteraemia were identified and the predictive ability of biomarkers in addition to routinely available clinical variables was assessed.ResultsThe median age of included FN episodes was 6.0 years and eight (10%) had a bacteraemia. On presentation, elevated PCT, IL-10 and Mip1-beta were significantly associated with bacteraemia, while CRP, IL-6 and IL-8 were not. The combination of PCT (≥0.425 ng/ml) and IL-10 (≥4.37 pg/ml) had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI 68.8-100%) and specificity of 89% (95% CI 80.0-95.0%) for prediction of bacteraemia, correctly identifying all eight bacteraemia episodes and classifying 16 FN episodes as high-risk. There was limited additive benefit of incorporating clinical variables to this model. On Day 2, there was an 11-fold increase in PCT in episodes with a bacteraemia which was significantly higher than that observed in the non-bacteraemia episodes.ConclusionElevated PCT and IL-10 accurately identified all bacteraemia episodes in our FN cohort and may enhance the early risk stratification process in this population. Prospective validation and implementation is required to determine the impact on health service utilisation

Examining health-related quality of life in pediatric cancer patients with febrile neutropenia: Factors predicting poor recovery in children and their parents

Background The impact febrile neutropenia (FN) has on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of children with cancer and their families is poorly understood. We sought to characterize the course of child and parent HRQoL during and following FN episodes. Method Data on HRQoL were collected in the multisite Australian Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer (PICNICC) study. Participants were enrolled between November 2016 to January 2018. The Child Health Utility (CHU9D) was used to assess HRQoL in children (N = 167 FN events) and the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQoL-8D) was used to assess HRQoL parents (N = 218 FN events) at three time points: 0–3 days, 7-days and 30-days following the onset of FN. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to characterize the course of HRQoL. Findings For children, three distinct groups were identified: persistently low HRQoL over the 30-day course of follow-up (chronic: N = 78/167; 47%), increasing HRQoL after the onset of FN to 30 days follow-up (recovering: N = 36/167; 22%), and persistently high HRQoL at all three timepoints (resilient: N = 53/167; 32%). Applying these definitions, parents were classified into two distinct groups: chronic (N = 107/218, 49%) and resilient (N = 111/218, 51%). The child being male, having solid cancer, the presence of financial stress, and relationship difficulties between the parent and child were significant predictors of chronic group membership for both parents and children. Children classified as high-risk FN were significantly more likely to belong to the recovery group. Being female, having blood cancers and the absence of financial or relationship difficulties were predictive of both parents and children being in the resilient group. Interpretation Approximately half the children and parents had chronically low HRQoL scores, which did not improve following resolution of the FN episode. The child's sex, cancer type, and presence of financial and relationship stress were predictive of chronic group membership for both parents and children. These families may benefit from increased financial and psychosocial support during anti-cancer treatment

Association between atrial fibrillation and <i>Helicobacter pylori</i>

The connection between atrial fibrillation (AF) and H. pylori (HP) infection is still matter of debate. We performed a systematic review and metanalysis of studies reporting the association between AF and HF. A systematic review of all available reports in literature of the incidence of HP infection in AF and comparing this incidence with subjects without AF were analysed. Risk ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) and risk difference with standard error (SE) were the main statistics indexes. Six retrospective studies including a total of 2921 were included at the end of the selection process. Nine hundred-fifty-six patients (32.7%) were in AF, whereas 1965 (67.3%) were in normal sinus rhythm (NSR). Overall, 335 of 956 patients with AF were HP positive (35%), whereas 621 were HP negative (65%). In addition, 643 of 1965 NSR patients (32.7%) were HP positive while 1,322 were negative (67.3%; Chi-square 2.15, p = 0.21). The Cumulative Risk Ratio for AF patients for developing an HP infection was 1.19 (95% CI 1.08–1.41). In addition, a small difference risk towards AF was found (0.11 [SE = 0.04]). Moreover, neither RR nor risk difference were influenced by the geographic area at meta-regression analysis. Finally, there was a weak correlation between AF and HP (coefficient = 0.04 [95% CI −0.01–0.08]). We failed to find any significant correlation between H. pylori infection and AF and, based on our data, it seems unlikely than HP can be considered a risk factor for AF. Further larger research is warranted