Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

Background: Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and reduced well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods: We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV) approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC) labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results: The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV) approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion: Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters to households, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters

The Marker State Space (MSS) Method for Classifying Clinical Samples

The development of accurate clinical biomarkers has been challenging in part due to the diversity between patients and diseases. One approach to account for the diversity is to use multiple markers to classify patients, based on the concept that each individual marker contributes information from its respective subclass of patients. Here we present a new strategy for developing biomarker panels that accounts for completely distinct patient subclasses. Marker State Space (MSS) defines "marker states" based on all possible patterns of high and low values among a panel of markers. Each marker state is defined as either a case state or a control state, and a sample is classified as case or control based on the state it occupies. MSS was used to define multi-marker panels that were robust in cross validation and training-set/test-set analyses and that yielded similar classification accuracy to several other classification algorithms. A three-marker panel for discriminating pancreatic cancer patients from control subjects revealed subclasses of patients based on distinct marker states. MSS provides a straightforward approach for modeling highly divergent subclasses of patients, which may be adaptable for diverse applications. © 2013 Fallon et al

Using stated preference methods to assess environmental impacts of forest biomass power plants in Portugal

As a renewable energy source, the use of forest biomass for electricity generation is advantageous in comparison with fossil fuels, however the activity of forest biomass power plants causes adverse impacts, affecting particularly neighbouring communities. The main objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the activity of forest biomass power plants on the welfare of two groups of stakeholders, namely local residents and the general population and we apply two stated preference methods: contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments, respectively. The former method was applied to estimate the minimum compensation residents of neighbouring communities of two forest biomass power plants in Portugal would be willing to accept. The latter method was applied among the general population to estimate their willingness to pay to avoid specific environmental impacts. The results show that the presence of the selected facilities affects individuals’ well-being. On the other hand, in the discrete choice experiments conducted among the general population all impacts considered were significant determinants of respondents’ welfare levels. The results of this study stress the importance of performing an equity analysis of the welfare effects on different groups of stakeholders from the installation of forest biomass power plants, as their effects on welfare are location and impact specific. Policy makers should take into account the views of all stakeholders either directly or indirectly involved when deciding crucial issues regarding the sitting of new forest biomass power plants, in order to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome

Cost-effectiveness analysis of antimuscarinics in the treatment of patients with overactive bladder in Spain: A decision-tree model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fesoterodine, a new once daily antimuscarinic, has proven to be an effective, safe, and well-tolerated treatment in patients with overactive bladder (OAB). To date, no analysis has evaluated the economic costs and benefits associated with fesoterodine, compared to antimuscarinics in Spain. The purpose of this analysis was to assess the economic value of OAB treatment with fesoterodine relative to extended release tolterodine and solifenacin, from the societal perspective.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The economic model was based on data from two 12-week, randomized, double-blind, and multicenter trials comparing fesoterodine and tolterodine extended released (ER). Treatment response rates for solifenacin were extracted from the published literature. Discontinuation and efficacy were based on the results of a 12-week multinational randomized clinical trial extrapolated to 52 weeks. Changes in health related quality of life were assessed with the King's Health Questionnaire, which was transformed into preference-based utility values. Medical costs included (expressed in € 2010) were antimuscarinics, physician visits, laboratory tests, incontinence pads and the costs of OAB-related comorbidities, fractures, skin infections, urinary tract infections, depression, and nursing home admissions associated with incontinence. Time lost from work was also considered. Univariate sensitivity analyses were also performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At week 12, continents accounted for 50.6%, 40.6% and 47.2% of patients in the fesoterodine, tolterodine, and solifenacin groups, respectively. By week 52, the projected proportions of patients remaining on therapy were 33.1%, 26.5% and 30.8%, respectively. The projected quality- adjusted life years (QALY) gain (compared to baseline) over the 52-week simulation period were 0.01014, 0.00846 and 0.00957, respectively. The overall treatment cost was estimated at €1,937, €2,089 and €1,960 for fesoterodine, tolterodine and solifenacin, respectively. Therefore, treatment with fesoterodine resulted in similar overall costs and greater QALY gain than treatment with either tolterodine or solifenacin. Sensitivity analysis showed that these results were robust to all changes performed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of this economic analysis suggest that fesoterodine is a cost-effective alternative to tolterodine and solifenacin for the treatment of patients with OAB in Spain. Fesoterodine provides additional health benefits while maintain a similar level of costs being a cost-effective treatment strategy from a societal perspective.</p

"A convenient truth": air travel passengers' willingness to pay to offset their CO2 emissions

Several economic reviews demonstrate the substantial costs related to climate change and consequently call for early action. These reviews, however, have been limited to measuring ‘objective’ risks and expected material damage related to climate change. The ‘subjective’ perceived risk of climate change and society’s willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid these risks are expected to provide an important additional motivation for direct action. We investigate whether and why air travel passengers—an increasingly important source of greenhouse gas emissions—are supportive of measures that increase the cost of their travel based on the polluter pays principle and compensate the damage caused by their flight. Compared to the results of the few previous studies that have elicited WTP estimates for climate policy more generally, our results appear to be at the lower end of the scale, while a comparison to estimates of the social cost of carbon shows that the average WTP estimate in this study is close to the estimated marginal damage cost. Although significant differences are found between travellers from Europe, North America, Asia and the rest of the world, we show that there exists a substantial demand for climate change mitigation action. The positive risk premium over and above the expected property damage cost assessments should be accounted for more explicitly in economic reviews as it will add to the burden of proof of direct action. Measurements of passenger WTP will help policy makers to design effective financial instruments aimed at discouraging climate-unfriendly travel activities as well as to generate funds for the measures directed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. Based on stated WTP by travellers to offset their greenhouse gas emissions, funds in the order of magnitude of €23 billion could be generated annually to finance climate change mitigation activities

A homologous production system for Trichoderma reesei secreted proteins in a cellulase-free background

Recent demands for the production of biofuels from lignocellulose led to an increased interest in engineered cellulases from Trichoderma reesei or other fungal sources. While the methods to generate such mutant cellulases on DNA level are straightforward, there is often a bottleneck in their production since a correct posttranslational processing of these enzymes is needed to obtain highly active enzymes. Their production and subsequent enzymatic analysis in the homologous host T. reesei is, however, often disturbed by the concomitant production of other endogenous cellulases. As a useful alternative, we tested the production of cellulases in T. reesei in a genetic background where cellulase formation has been impaired by deletion of the major cellulase transcriptional activator gene xyr1. Three cellulase genes (cel7a, cel7b, and cel12a) were expressed under the promoter regions of the two highly expressed genes tef1 (encoding translation elongation factor 1-alpha) or cdna1 (encoding the hypothetical protein Trire2:110879). When cultivated on d-glucose as carbon source, the Δxyr1 strain secreted all three cellulases into the medium. Related to the introduced gene copy number, the cdna1 promoter appeared to be superior to the tef1 promoter. No signs of proteolysis were detected, and the individual cellulases could be assayed over a background essentially free of other cellulases. Hence this system can be used as a vehicle for rapid and high-throughput testing of cellulase muteins in a homologous background

Rapid and simultaneous detection of human hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus antibodies based on a protein chip assay using nano-gold immunological amplification and silver staining method

BACKGROUND: Viral hepatitis due to hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus are major public health problems all over the world. Traditional detection methods including polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) are expensive and time-consuming. In our assay, a protein chip assay using Nano-gold Immunological Amplification and Silver Staining (NIASS) method was applied to detect HBV and HCV antibodies rapidly and simultaneously. METHODS: Chemically modified glass slides were used as solid supports (named chip), on which several antigens, including HBsAg, HBeAg, HBcAg and HCVAg (a mixture of NS3, NS5 and core antigens) were immobilized respectively. Colloidal nano-gold labelled staphylococcal protein A (SPA) was used as an indicator and immunogold silver staining enhancement technique was applied to amplify the detection signals, producing black image on array spots, which were visible with naked eyes. To determine the detection limit of the protein chip assay, a set of model arrays in which human IgG was spotted were structured and the model arrays were incubated with different concentrations of anti-IgG. A total of 305 serum samples previously characterized with commercial ELISA were divided into 4 groups and tested in this assay. RESULTS: We prepared mono-dispersed, spherical nano-gold particles with an average diameter of 15 ± 2 nm. Colloidal nano-gold-SPA particles observed by TEM were well-distributed, maintaining uniform and stable. The optimum silver enhancement time ranged from 8 to 12 minutes. In our assay, the protein chips could detect serum antibodies against HBsAg, HBeAg, HBcAg and HCVAg with the absence of the cross reaction. In the model arrays, the anti-IgG as low as 3 ng/ml could be detected. The data for comparing the protein chip assay with ELISA indicated that no distinct difference (P > 0.05) existed between the results determined by our assay and ELISA respectively. CONCLUSION: Results showed that our assay can be applied with serology for the detection of HBV and HCV antibodies rapidly and simultaneously in clinical detection

On Combining Stated Preferences and Revealed Preferences Approaches to Evaluate Environmental Resources Having a Recreational Use

This work aims at analysing the value of recreational water uses for the Idro Lake (Lombardy, Northern Italy), which has been experiencing dramatic fluctuations in its levels in recent years, due to excessive productive withdrawal that affected recreational uses. It estimates the economic benefits deriving from recreational uses, by considering the current recreational demand and the hypothetical one obtained by considering an “improved quality” scenario. Through an on-site survey, we built a panel dataset. Following Whitehead et al. (2000) and Hanley et al. (2003) we get welfare estimates by combining SP and RP responses. The present CS is estimated in €134 per individual, whilst the increase in CS is estimated in €173 per individual. These figures can be confronted with the economic value of competitive uses and with the clean up costs, respectively, to infer some policy indications