A motif-based approach to network epidemics

Networks have become an indispensable tool in modelling infectious diseases, with the structure of epidemiologically relevant contacts known to affect both the dynamics of the infection process and the efficacy of intervention strategies. One of the key reasons for this is the presence of clustering in contact networks, which is typically analysed in terms of prevalence of triangles in the network. We present a more general approach, based on the prevalence of different four-motifs, in the context of ODE approximations to network dynamics. This is shown to outperform existing models for a range of small world networks

Discriminating between the origins of remotely sensed circular structures:carbonate mounds, diapirs or periclinal folds? Purbeck Limestone Group, Weymouth Bay, UK

Many sedimentary rock successions contain plan-view circular structures, such as impacts, diapirs and carbonate build-ups. When remotely sensed, it can be difficult to discriminate between their formation mechanisms. Here we examine this problem by assessing the origins of circular structures imaged in high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data from Weymouth Bay, UK. The imagery shows 30–150 m across, concave-down structures within the upper Purbeck Limestone Group on the southern limb of the Purbeck Anticline. Similar structures have not been identified in the extensive outcrops around the bay. The morphology and geological setting of the structures are consistent with three different interpretations: carbonate mounds, periclinal folds and evaporite diapirs. However, none of these structures has been previously recorded in the upper Purbeck Limestone Group outcrops of this internationally renowned geological region. We apply a scoring system to 25 features of the circular structures to discriminate between these three alternative interpretations. This analysis indicates that evaporite diapirs are the least likely and carbonate mounds the most likely origin of the structures. The presence of carbonate mounds revises the upper Purbeck palaeofacies distribution in its type area and provides an analogue for the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs in lacustrine mounds

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world

Kenya employment problem : an analysis of the modern sector labour market

Due to copyright restrictions, this item cannot be sharedExamines whether the increase in the supply of labour available in Kenya was exerting significant downward pressure on the wage structure in the modern sector and concludes that wage levels have not been responsive to the growing labour supply pressures. Includes bibliography

Labor market pressures and wage determination in less developed economies : the case of Kenya

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