A dynamic spatial model of conflict escalation

In both historical and modern conflicts, space plays a critical role in how interactions occur over time. Despite its importance, the spatial distribution of adversaries has often been neglected in mathematical models of conflict. In this paper, we propose an entropy-maximising spatial interaction method for disaggregating the impact of space, employing a general notion of ‘threat’ between two adversaries. This approach addresses a number of limitations that are associated with partial differential equation approaches to spatial disaggregation. We use this method to spatially disaggregate the Richardson model of conflict escalation, and then explore the resulting model with both analytical and numerical treatments. A bifurcation is identified that dramatically influences the resulting spatial distribution of conflict and is shown to persist under a range of model specifications. Implications of this finding for real-world conflicts are discussed

Assessing the impact of key Marine Invasive Non-Native Species on Welsh MPA habitat features, fisheries and aquaculture

Marine Invasive Non-Native Species (INNS) are a significant threat to global biodiversity and can have detrimental socio-economic impacts on activities such as fishing, shipping and aquaculture. Biosecurity measures can prevent the spread of INNS and limit the likelihood of a species entering an area in the first place; such measures are particularly important for marine ecosystems, where eradication and control techniques have been shown to be less effective. A previous study (Macleod et al. 2016) assessed the environmental (with a particular focus on MPA features) and socioeconomic impacts of 8 key marine INNS

Loss-size and Reliability Trade-offs Amongst Diverse Redundant Binary Classifiers

Many applications involve the use of binary classifiers, including applications where safety and security are critical. The quantitative assessment of such classifiers typically involves receiver operator characteristic (ROC) methods and the estimation of sensitivity/specificity. But such techniques have their limitations. For safety/security critical applications, more relevant measures of reliability and risk should be estimated. Moreover, ROC techniques do not explicitly account for: 1) inherent uncertainties one faces during assessments, 2) reliability evidence other than the observed failure behaviour of the classifier, and 3) how this observed failure behaviour alters one's uncertainty about classifier reliability. We address these limitations using conservative Bayesian inference (CBI) methods, producing statistically principled, conservative values for risk/reliability measures of interest. Our analyses reveals trade-offs amongst all binary classifiers with the same expected loss { the most reliable classifiers are those most likely to experience high impact failures. This trade-off is harnessed by using diverse redundant binary classifiers

Floral temperature and optimal foraging: is heat a feasible floral reward for pollinators?

As well as nutritional rewards, some plants also reward ectothermic pollinators with warmth. Bumble bees have some control over their temperature, but have been shown to forage at warmer flowers when given a choice, suggesting that there is some advantage to them of foraging at warm flowers (such as reducing the energy required to raise their body to flight temperature before leaving the flower). We describe a model that considers how a heat reward affects the foraging behaviour in a thermogenic central-place forager (such as a bumble bee). We show that although the pollinator should spend a longer time on individual flowers if they are warm, the increase in total visit time is likely to be small. The pollinator's net rate of energy gain will be increased by landing on warmer flowers. Therefore, if a plant provides a heat reward, it could reduce the amount of nectar it produces, whilst still providing its pollinator with the same net rate of gain. We suggest how heat rewards may link with plant life history strategies

Brief Report: Inhibitory Control of Socially Relevant Stimuli in Children with High Functioning Autism

The current study explored whether inhibitory control deficits in high functioning autism (HFA) emerged when socially relevant stimuli were used and whether arousal level affected the performance. A Go/NoGo paradigm, with socially relevant stimuli and varying presentation rates, was applied in 18 children with HFA (including children with autism or Asperger syndrome) and 22 typically developing children (aged 8–13 years). Children with HFA did not show inhibitory control deficits compared to the control group, but their performance deteriorated in the slow presentation rate condition. Findings were unrelated to children’s abilities to recognize emotions. Hence, rather than a core deficit in inhibitory control, low arousal level in response to social stimuli might influence the responses given by children with HFA

A Genome-Wide Analysis of Promoter-Mediated Phenotypic Noise in Escherichia coli

Gene expression is subject to random perturbations that lead to fluctuations in the rate of protein production. As a consequence, for any given protein, genetically identical organisms living in a constant environment will contain different amounts of that particular protein, resulting in different phenotypes. This phenomenon is known as “phenotypic noise.” In bacterial systems, previous studies have shown that, for specific genes, both transcriptional and translational processes affect phenotypic noise. Here, we focus on how the promoter regions of genes affect noise and ask whether levels of promoter-mediated noise are correlated with genes' functional attributes, using data for over 60% of all promoters in Escherichia coli. We find that essential genes and genes with a high degree of evolutionary conservation have promoters that confer low levels of noise. We also find that the level of noise cannot be attributed to the evolutionary time that different genes have spent in the genome of E. coli. In contrast to previous results in eukaryotes, we find no association between promoter-mediated noise and gene expression plasticity. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in bacteria, natural selection can act to reduce gene expression noise and that some of this noise is controlled through the sequence of the promoter region alon

Public opinion on energy crops in the landscape: considerations for the expansion of renewable energy from biomass

Public attitudes were assessed towards two dedicated biomass crops – Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC), particularly regarding their visual impacts in the landscape. Results are based on responses to photographic and computer-generated images as the crops are still relatively scarce in the landscape. A questionnaire survey indicated little public concern about potential landscape aesthetics but more concern about attendant built infrastructure. Focus group meetings and interviews indicated support for biomass end uses that bring direct benefits to local communities. Questions arise as to how well the imagery used was able to portray the true nature of these tall, dense, perennial plants but based on the responses obtained and given the caveat that there was limited personal experience of the crops, it appears unlikely that wide-scale planting of biomass crops will give rise to substantial public concern in relation to their visual impact in the landscape