Should the Arteriovenous Fistula Be Created before Starting Dialysis?: A Decision Analytic Approach

Background: An arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is considered the vascular access of choice, but uncertainty exists about the\ud optimal time for its creation in pre-dialysis patients. The aim of this study was to determine the optimal vascular access\ud referral strategy for stage 4 (glomerular filtration rate ,30 ml/min/1.73 m2) chronic kidney disease patients using a decision\ud analytic framework.\ud Methods: A Markov model was created to compare two strategies: refer all stage 4 chronic kidney disease patients for an\ud AVF versus wait until the patient starts dialysis. Data from published observational studies were used to estimate the\ud probabilities used in the model. A Markov cohort analysis was used to determine the optimal strategy with life expectancy\ud and quality adjusted life expectancy as the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses, including a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were\ud performed using Monte Carlo simulation.\ud Results: The wait strategy results in a higher life expectancy (66.6 versus 65.9 months) and quality adjusted life expectancy\ud (38.9 versus 38.5 quality adjusted life months) than immediate AVF creation. It was robust across all the parameters except\ud at higher rates of progression and lower rates of ischemic steal syndrome.\ud Conclusions: Early creation of an AVF, as recommended by most guidelines, may not be the preferred strategy in all predialysis\ud patients. Further research on cost implications and patient preferences for treatment options needs to be done\ud before recommending early AVF creation

Lessons Learned from a Decade of Sudden Oak Death in California: Evaluating Local Management

Sudden Oak Death has been impacting California’s coastal forests for more than a decade. In that time, and in the absence of a centrally organized and coordinated set of mandatory management actions for this disease in California’s wildlands and open spaces, many local communities have initiated their own management programs. We present five case studies to explore how local-level management has attempted to control this disease. From these case studies, we glean three lessons: connections count, scale matters, and building capacity is crucial. These lessons may help management, research, and education planning for future pest and disease outbreaks

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

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