Predicting Reconviction Rates in Northern Ireland

The aim of this Bulletin is to inform policy colleagues in their work towards the achievement of Target 3 of the Northern Ireland Office Public Service Agreement which looks at reducing the rate of reconviction in Northern Ireland. Recent data was used to develop statistical models for predicting the rates of reconviction within two years of receiving a community sentence or release from custody in Northern Ireland. Observed rates can then be compared with the predicted rates. The models are based on the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) developed by Copas and Marshall (1998), and its later modification by Taylor (1999). They assume that the probability of reconviction can be associated with a small number of influential factors relating to the demographic characteristics and criminal history of the offender

The Police National Computer and the Offenders Index:can they be combined for research purposes?

The current standard research tool used in studying patterns of offending and reconviction in England and Wales is the Offenders Index. It has been suggested that a ‘complete criminal record’ should be created using information from the police, the courts, the prison service and the probation service (Allnutt, 2001). This study investigates the feasibility of merging relevant police records held on the Police National Computer into extracts from the Offenders Index in order to maximise the information available to researchers. However, external researchers are not given access to individual data as they are made anonymous

Socioeconomic lifecourse influences on women's smoking status in early adulthood.

Study objective: To incorporate women’s domestic trajectories and circumstances into analyses of the socioeconomic influences on women’s smoking status (current and former smoking) in early adulthood. Design: Cross sectional survey Setting: Southampton, UK. Participants: 8437 women aged 25–34 recruited from 1998–2002 via patient lists of general practices Main results: Domestic lifecourse factors contributed to the odds of being a current smoker and former smoker in models that included conventional measures of the socioeconomic lifecourse. Early motherhood, non-cohabitation, and lone motherhood increased the odds of smoking; early motherhood and non-cohabitation reduced the odds of former smoking. For example, relative to childless women, odds ratios (OR) for women who had become mothers <20 years were 1.71 for smoking and 0.76 for former smoking. The effects of education and current SEP remained strong with the inclusion of childbearing and cohabitation variables for both outcomes. For instance, compared with women in education to age 22, the odds ratio for smoking for those leaving school 16 was 3.37 and for former smoking was 0.42. Conclusions: Both the conventionally measured socioeconomic lifecourse and the domestic lifecourse contributed separately to the odds of smoking and former smoking, suggesting that lifecourse analyses should incorporate women’s domestic circumstances as an important pathway of influence on their smoking status in early adulthood

Identifying future repeat danger from sexual offenders against children:a focus on those convicted and those strongly suspected of such crime.

This study provides a 14 - 16-year criminological follow-up, to the end of 2003, of all those convicted or strongly suspected of committing sexual offences against children in one English county, Lancashire, between 1987 and 1989 (inclusive). The main analysis focuses on 124 males (40%) convicted compared with 188 males (60%) strongly suspected but not convicted. The age and sex of the victims and the relationship between offender and victim show no significant association with conviction status, but the former group tend to be older. Of the 103 convicted adult males, 20% were reconvicted for a sexual offence, whereas of the 116 adult males strongly suspected but not convicted, 9% had a subsequent conviction for a sexual offence. However, the difference is largely explained by their predicted risk scores. The risk assessment tool used, Static-99, is shown to be remarkably effective in identifying high-risk members of the two groups. The 93 convicted and strongly suspected males in the total sample aged under 18 tend to offend against acquaintances (54%), and target a female victim (69%) and a younger (5 - 7 years) age group of children (48%). The convicted young males had a higher rate of subsequent sex convictions (14.3%) than those suspected but not convicted (1.4%). The policy implications of the findings are addressed

Companions through cancer: the care given by informal carers in cancer contexts.

This paper explores the care-giving experiences of informal carers in cancer contexts, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data generated in a 3 year study in the UK on the psychosocial needs of cancer patients and their main carers. The study adopted a sociological approach to psychosocial needs, in contrast to dominant psychological and psychiatric perspectives on such needs in psycho-oncology. Data collection methods involved a descriptive cross-sectional survey of carers (an achieved sample of 262 respondents, with similar numbers of male and female carers) followed by in-depth guided interviews with a sub-sample of surveyed carers (n=32). Key findings are presented in three sections: (i) the characteristics of the survey and interview samples; (ii) the examination of the care work undertaken by informal carers; and (iii), the exploration of the emotion work undertaken by informal carers. Care work findings: additional care work demands were an important feature of informal carers’ experiences, although this varied with the stage of the patient's disease and with the presence of either co-morbidity in patients or morbidity in carers. Specific groups of carers expressed the need for help with particular practical tasks and with the personal effects of the burden of care work. Emotion work findings: carers of either gender worked hard to manage the emotions of the patient as well as their own feeling states, and these aspects of emotion work were intimately connected. Carers felt that they had to be, and often wanted to be, ‘strong’ and ‘positive’, and to try to maximise the sense of ‘life carrying on as normal’. In doing this emotion work, carers, especially spousal carers, often symbolically shared in the illness and presented the struggle with cancer as a joint one. A concluding section considers the significance of our findings for cancer service provision

Pathways of disadvantage and smoking careers : evidence and policy implications.

Objectives: To investigate in older industrialised societies (a) how social disadvantage contributes to smoking risk among women (b) the role of social and economic policies in reducing disadvantage and moderating wider inequalities in life chances and living standards. Methods: Review and analysis of (a) the effects of disadvantage in childhood and into adulthood on women’s smoking status in early adulthood (b) policy impacts on the social exposures associated with high smoking risk. Main results: (a) Smoking status—ever smoking, current smoking, heavy smoking, and cessation—is influenced not only by current circumstances but by longer term biographies of disadvantage (b) social and economic policies shape key social predictors of women’s smoking status, including childhood circumstances, educational levels and adult circumstances, and moderate inequalities in the distribution of these dimensions of life chances and living standards. Together, the two sets of findings argue for a policy toolkit that acts on the distal determinants of smoking, with interventions targeting the conditions in which future and current smokers live. Conclusions: An approach to tobacco control is advocated that combines changing smoking habits with reducing inequalities in the social trajectories in which they are embedded. Policies to level up opportunities and living standards across the lifecourse should be championed as part of an equity oriented approach to reducing the disease burden of cigarette smoking

Companions through cancer: : the care given by informal carers in cancer contexts

This paper explores the care-giving experiences of informal carers in cancer contexts, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data generated in a 3 year study in the UK on the psychosocial needs of cancer patients and their main carers. The study adopted a sociological approach to psychosocial needs, in contrast to dominant psychological and psychiatric perspectives on such needs in psycho-oncology. Data collection methods involved a descriptive cross-sectional survey of carers (an achieved sample of 262 respondents, with similar numbers of male and female carers) followed by in-depth guided interviews with a sub-sample of surveyed carers (n=32). Key findings are presented in three sections: (i) the characteristics of the survey and interview samples; (ii) the examination of the care work undertaken by informal carers; and (iii), the exploration of the emotion work undertaken by informal carers. Care work findings: additional care work demands were an important feature of informal carers' experiences, although this varied with the stage of the patient's disease and with the presence of either co-morbidity in patients or morbidity in carers. Specific groups of carers expressed the need for help with particular practical tasks and with the personal effects of the burden of care work. Emotion work findings: carers of either gender worked hard to manage the emotions of the patient as well as their own feeling states, and these aspects of emotion work were intimately connected. Carers felt that they had to be, and often wanted to be, 'strong' and 'positive', and to try to maximise the sense of 'life carrying on as normal'. In doing this emotion work, carers, especially spousal carers, often symbolically shared in the illness and presented the struggle with cancer as a joint one. A concluding section considers the significance of our findings for cancer service provision.Cancer Informal carers Care-givers Care work Emotion work.