Prestige of Psychologists in Britain, the USA & Israel

This article compares the status and income of psychologists in Britain with those of the U.S.A. and Israel

KARAKTERISASI MIRISTISIN HASIL ISOLASI MINYAK PALA

Characterization of Myristicin isolated from nutmeg oil has been done. The study was started by isolating the nutmeg oil from the nutmeg using steam distillation for 8 hours, yield 2.40% of nutmeg oil. The isolation of myristicin from nutmeg oil by fractional distillation under reduced pressure, yield 8.02% of myristicin with 100% of purity. The purity was determinated using GC and the structure elucidation was analyzed by FTIR, 1H-NMR, and MS spectromecter

Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Methods. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Results. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. Conclusions. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations

All policies are wrong, but some are useful—and which ones do no harm?

The five of us research and teach risk analysis with an eye towards decision support. Our work has been dedicated to taming risks and helping to make challenging decisions. But nothing had prepared us for the Covid-19 pandemic. We first had to grapple with the news coming from abroad, including, for some of us, our home countries. Then, some information and research, but mostly opinions, started coming in from our academic community, and we felt the tensions. Finally, the UK went into an unofficial and then official lockdown, and all University staff were asked to redirect their research capacity so as to support the national effort for risk analysis and decision support. As we write this on the 20th of April, many countries, including the UK, are starting to consider how to get out of lockdown. Like the previous stages of the pandemic, there is little data, perhaps a bit more research, surely many more opinions, and definitely an overwhelming amount of personal experiences and thoughts. Here we reflect on all of the above, just in case it can help the readers of this Minds in Society flash editorial to think and act, or at least, to not have to do so entirely on their own. As it can be expected, our collage introduces more questions than it can answer

Can Plan Recommendations Improve the Coverage Decisions of Vulnerable Populations in Health Insurance Marketplaces?

OBJECTIVE: The Affordable Care Act's marketplaces present an important opportunity for expanding coverage but consumers face enormous challenges in navigating through enrollment and re-enrollment. We tested the effectiveness of a behaviorally informed policy tool--plan recommendations--in improving marketplace decisions. STUDY SETTING: Data were gathered from a community sample of 656 lower-income, minority, rural residents of Virginia. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an incentive-compatible, computer-based experiment using a hypothetical marketplace like the one consumers face in the federally-facilitated marketplaces, and examined their decision quality. Participants were randomly assigned to a control condition or three types of plan recommendations: social normative, physician, and government. For participants randomized to a plan recommendation condition, the plan that maximized expected earnings, and minimized total expected annual health care costs, was recommended. DATA COLLECTION: Primary data were gathered using an online choice experiment and questionnaire. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Plan recommendations resulted in a 21 percentage point increase in the probability of choosing the earnings maximizing plan, after controlling for participant characteristics. Two conditions, government or providers recommending the lowest cost plan, resulted in plan choices that lowered annual costs compared to marketplaces where no recommendations were made. CONCLUSIONS: As millions of adults grapple with choosing plans in marketplaces and whether to switch plans during open enrollment, it is time to consider marketplace redesigns and leverage insights from the behavioral sciences to facilitate consumers' decisions

Electromigration-Induced Flow of Islands and Voids on the Cu(001) Surface

Electromigration-induced flow of islands and voids on the Cu(001) surface is studied at the atomic scale. The basic drift mechanisms are identified using a complete set of energy barriers for adatom hopping on the Cu(001) surface, combined with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. The energy barriers are calculated by the embedded atom method, and parameterized using a simple model. The dependence of the flow on the temperature, the size of the clusters, and the strength of the applied field is obtained. For both islands and voids it is found that edge diffusion is the dominant mass-transport mechanism. The rate limiting steps are identified. For both islands and voids they involve detachment of atoms from corners into the adjacent edge. The energy barriers for these moves are found to be in good agreement with the activation energy for island/void drift obtained from Arrhenius analysis of the simulation results. The relevance of the results to other FCC(001) metal surfaces and their experimental implications are discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 13 ps figure

Intrinsically active MEK variants are differentially regulated by proteinases and phosphatases

MAPK/ERK kinase (MEK) 1/2 are central signaling proteins that serve as specificity determinants of the MAPK/ERK cascade. More than twenty activating mutations have been reported for MEK1/2, and many of them are known to cause diseases such as cancers, arteriovenous malformation and RASopathies. Changes in their intrinsic activity do not seem to correlate with the severity of the diseases. Here we studied four MEK1/2 mutations using biochemical and molecular dynamic methods. Although the studied mutants elevated the activating phosphorylation of MEK they had no effect on the stimulated ERK1/2 phosphorylation. Studying the regulatory mechanism that may explain this lack of effect, we found that one type of mutation affects MEK stability and two types of mutations demonstrate a reduced sensitivity to PP2A. Together, our results indicate that some MEK mutations exert their function not only by their elevated intrinsic activity, but also by modulation of regulatory elements such as protein stability or dephosphorylation