Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa.Trade Reforms; CGE Models; Doha Round; Africa

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt.Development; Finance; MDGs; Africa; Trends

TRADE LIBERALISATION UNDER THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; OPTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AFRICA

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.International Relations/Trade,

Variabilité de l'intensité des pluies dans la région de Tanger sur une période de 30 ans (1980-2010)

Cet article présente les résultats d’une analyse fréquentielle de l’intensité des pluies dans la région de Tanger sur des pas de temps de 5 minutes à 3 heures et sur une période de 30 ans (1981-2011). Les enregistrements de 2 pluviographes ont été utilisés à cet effet : celui de Romane, géré actuellement par l’ABHL, pour lequel on dispose d’enregistrements sur la période 1981-1999 et celui de Saboun, géré par l’IAV Hassan II, pour lequel on dispose d’enregistrements sur la période 1997-2011. L’analyse fréquentielle a porté sur des périodes de 10 ans pour lesquelles ont été établies les courbes Intensité – Durée - Fréquence (IDF). Pour de fortes récurrences (2 à 5 ans), la comparaison des courbes IDF fait apparaître une augmentation de 10% des intensités de pluie entre la période 1981-1991 et la période 2001-2011. Pour de faibles récurrences (10 ans), les intensités de pluie sont sensiblement les mêmes dans les deux périodes. A partir de l’année 1993-1994, l’accroissement de l’intensité des pluies se traduit par un accroissement de leur agressivité estimée par l’indice d’érosivité de Wischmeier. Cet accroissement, sans les deux années très fortes 2008-2009 et 2009-2010, est de 1,77 ; il passe à 2,2 avec ces deux années

Determinants of singleness among women aged 40 and over in Algeria: what relation to the labor market?

The decrease in the average age of marriage and the increase in loneliness among women in Algeria is a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly visible in society. In the coming years, the number of single people will increase. This article analyses the factors leading to increased loneliness among women aged 40 and over in Algeria based on data from the MICS6/2019 survey. The minimum age threshold was chosen because it corresponds to the age after which the probability of first marriage is almost zero based on Algerian statistics. The methodology of this study is stepwise Wald logistic regression. The paper built regression models based on two samples: the first (24,681 women aged 40 and over) and the second (4,329 women aged 50-54). For an empirical study of loneliness among women, it is proposed to analyze the following determinants: type of employment, type of social protection, place of residence, level of education, and age. Based on the results of the research, four main conclusions were formed. First, the odds of being single are 14.1 times and 4.23 times higher among job-seeking and working women, respectively, compared to non-working women. Due to the loss of hope to get married, women choose career development instead of building a family union. Under these conditions, women integrate into the labor market late. Since most of this category is unemployed and not of retirement age, they have low health insurance coverage. Based on this, to create decent living conditions for single women aged 40 and older, it is advisable to launch a program to improve the qualifications of these women, find ways to integrate them into the working environment and provide them with health insurance. Secondly, the long-term trend indicates that loneliness as a psychological phenomenon will increase every year in society, which will, accordingly, contribute to the strengthening of the imbalance in the marriage market. Late marriage and declining fertility are indicators of new patterns of behavior brought about by economic and social change. Thirdly, the level of well-being is also a statistically significant factor influencing the loneliness of women. Middle-class women are 1.27 times more likely to be single than upper-class women. Fourth, the survey revealed significant regional differences. Women in Algeria’s north-eastern and north-central regions are more likely to remain single. These results can be further explored through qualitative research

Morning melatonin ingestion and diurnal variation of short-term maximal performances in soccer players

Aim Very few studies have investigated the temporal specificity of melatonin (MEL) ingestion upon short-term maximal athletic performances. The aim of the present study was to explore the effect of morning MEL ingestion on cognitive and physical performances measured in the afternoon. Methods Twelve soccer players from a Tunisian squad (17.9 ± 1.3 years, 1.74 ± 0.06 m and 62.0 ± 8.8 kg) participated in the present study. They performed two testing sessions at 08:00 h, 12:00 h and 16:00 h after either MEL (5mg) or placebo (PLA) ingestion, in a randomized order. During each period, the participants performed the following cognitive and physical tests: reaction time and vigilance tests, medicine-ball throw (MBT), five jumps, handgrip strength (HG), and agility tests. Results cognitive and physical performances were significantly higher at 16:00 h compared to 08:00 h during the two conditions (p < 0.05). Moreover, performances of MBT and HG were lower in the morning with MEL in comparison to PLA (p < 0.05). However, MEL ingestion did not affect physical and cognitive performances measured at 12:00 h and 16:00 h. Conclusion morning MEL ingestion has no unfavourable effect on afternoon physical and cognitive performances in soccer players

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt

Corrosion Protection Enhancement on Aluminum Alloy And Magnesium Alloy by Mo-CeO2 conversion coating

AbstractIn this paper, Mo-CeO2 conversion coating was developed to protect Aluminum 2024 alloy and Magnesium AZ31 alloy against corrosion.The cerium oxide was incorporated in Molybdenum conversion coating which is considered as a promising alternative to replace chromate compounds. The corrosion efficacy was improving and has been characterized by polarization curves and EIS measurements.The structural and the microstructural Mo-CeO2 conversion coating was characterized by AFM, SEM and XRD and the mechanical proprieties was determined by nano indentation. The presence of molybdenum and oxide of cerium was confirmed with good physical and mechanical proprieties.The presence of CeO2 in the conversion coating had a beneficial effect on the corrosion resistance of the both materials