Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Sensibilidade da seriografia do esôfago, estômago e duodeno para o diagnóstico de doença do refluxo gastroesofágico em recém-nascidos prematuros

OBJETIVO: Determinar a sensibilidade da seriografia do esôfago, estômago e duodeno (SEED) para o diagnóstico da doença do refluxo gastroesofágico (DRGE) em recém-nascidos prematuros, tendo como padrão ouro a monitoração prolongada do pH esofágico distal, e descrever a presença de anormalidades anatômicas do tubo digestivo. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foram incluídos no estudo 41 recém-nascidos, com média de 1.243,9 g, apresentando sinais/sintomas de DRGE e resultados alterados na monitoração do pH (índice de refluxo > 10%). A SEED foi realizada logo que as condições clínicas dos recém-nascidos foram estáveis para a realização dos exames radiológicos. RESULTADOS: A monitoração prolongada do pH e a SEED foram realizadas com 49,8 e 66,8 dias de vida, respectivamente. A sensibilidade da seriografia foi de 39,0% (IC 95%: 25,754,3%). Refluxo significativo foi observado em 41,4% dos casos, refluxo médio em 44,8% e refluxo pequeno em 13,8%. A SEED identificou apenas um caso de hérnia de hiato. CONCLUSÃO: A SEED apresentou baixa sensibilidade para a DRGE em prematuros e não se associou com a gravidade do refluxo, na comparação com a monitoração do pH, sendo, entretanto, útil no diagnóstico de alteração anatômica