Serum antibodies in first-degree relatives of patients with IBD: A marker of disease susceptibility? A follow-up pilot-study after 7 years

Introduction: Various disease-specific serum antibodies were described in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and their yet healthy first-degree relatives. In the latter, serum antibodies are commonly regarded as potential markers of disease susceptibility. The present long-term follow-up study evaluated the fate of antibody-positive first-degree relatives. Patients and Methods: 25 patients with Crohn's disease, 19 patients with ulcerative colitis and 102 first-degree relatives in whom presence of ASCA, pANCA, pancreatic- and goblet-cell antibodies had been assessed were enrolled. The number of incident cases with inflammatory bowel disease was compared between antibody-positive and antibody-negative first-degree relatives 7 years after storage of serum samples. Results: 34 of 102 (33%) first-degree relatives were positive for at least one of the studied serum antibodies. In the group of first-degree relatives, one case of Crohn's disease and one case of ulcerative colitis were diagnosed during the follow-up period. However, both relatives did not display any of the investigated serum antibodies (p = 1). Discussion: The findings of our pilot study argue against a role of serum antibodies as a marker of disease susceptibility in first-degree relatives of patients with inflammatory bowel disease. However, these data have to await confirmation in larger ideally prospective multicenter studies before definite conclusions can be drawn

Serum antibodies in first-degree relatives of patients with IBD: A marker of disease susceptibility? A follow-up pilot-study after 7 years

Introduction: Various disease-specific serum antibodies were described in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and their yet healthy first-degree relatives. In the latter, serum antibodies are commonly regarded as potential markers of disease susceptibility. The present long-term follow-up study evaluated the fate of antibody-positive first-degree relatives. Patients and Methods: 25 patients with Crohn's disease, 19 patients with ulcerative colitis and 102 first-degree relatives in whom presence of ASCA, pANCA, pancreatic- and goblet-cell antibodies had been assessed were enrolled. The number of incident cases with inflammatory bowel disease was compared between antibody-positive and antibody-negative first-degree relatives 7 years after storage of serum samples. Results: 34 of 102 (33%) first-degree relatives were positive for at least one of the studied serum antibodies. In the group of first-degree relatives, one case of Crohn's disease and one case of ulcerative colitis were diagnosed during the follow-up period. However, both relatives did not display any of the investigated serum antibodies (p = 1). Discussion: The findings of our pilot study argue against a role of serum antibodies as a marker of disease susceptibility in first-degree relatives of patients with inflammatory bowel disease. However, these data have to await confirmation in larger ideally prospective multicenter studies before definite conclusions can be drawn

Solar Weather Event Modelling and Prediction

Key drivers of solar weather and mid-term solar weather are reviewed by considering a selection of relevant physics- and statistics-based scientific models as well as aselection of related prediction models, in order to provide an updated operational scenario for space weather applications. The characteristics and outcomes of the considered scientific and prediction models indicate that they only partially cope with the complex nature of solar activity for the lack of a detailed knowledge of the underlying physics. This is indicated by the fact that, on one hand, scientific models based on chaos theory and non-linear dynamics reproduce better the observed features, and, on the other hand, that prediction models based on statistics and artificial neural networks perform better. To date, the solar weather prediction success at most time and spatial scales is far from being satisfactory, but the forthcoming ground- and space-based high-resolution observations can add fundamental tiles to the modelling and predicting frameworks as well as the application of advanced mathematical approaches in the analysis of diachronic solar observations, that are a must to provide comprehensive and homogeneous data sets.peerReviewe