Spatial trend analysis of gridded temperature data at varying spatial scales

Classical assessments of trends in gridded temperature data perform independent evaluations across the grid, thus, ignoring spatial correlations in the trend estimates. In particular, this affects assessments of trend significance as evaluation of the collective significance of individual tests is commonly neglected. In this article we build a space-time hierarchical Bayesian model for temperature anomalies where the trend coefficient is modeled by a latent Gaussian random field. This enables us to calculate simultaneous credible regions for joint significance assessments. In a case study, we assess summer season trends in 65 years of gridded temperature data over Europe. We find that while spatial smoothing generally results in larger regions where the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected, this is not the case for all sub-regions

Unintended weight loss in the elderly living at home: the aged in homecare project (Adhoc)

Objective: To describe associations between unintended weight loss (UWL) and characteristics of nutritional status. Design: A comparative cross-sectional assessment study at 11 sites in Europe. The target population was a stratified random sample of 4,455 recipients of home care (405 in each random sample from 11 urban areas) aged 65 years and older. Measurements: the Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care, version 2.0. Epidemiological and medical characteristics of clients and service utilisation were recorded in a standardized, comparative manner. UWL was defined as information of 5% or more weight loss in the last 30 days (or 10% or more in the last 180 days). Results: The final sample consisted of 4,010 persons; 74% were female. The mean ages were 80.9 ± 7.5 years (males) and 82.8 ± 7.3 years (females). No associations were found between single diagnoses and UWL, except for cancer. Cancer patients were excluded from further analyses. Persons with a Cognitive Performance Scale value (CPS) > 3 (impaired) had increased risk of UWL (OR = 2.0) compared with those scoring < 3 (less impaired). Only in the oldest group did we find a significant association between UWL and reduction in ADL and IADL functions, comparing those who scored 3 or less with those who scored more than 3 (disabled). A binary logistic regression model explained 26% of UWL: less than one meal/day, reduced appetite, malnutrition, reduced social activity, experiencing a flare-up of a recurrent or chronic problem, and hospitalisation were important indicators. Conclusion: We recommend a regular comprehensive assessment in home care to identify clients with potential risk factors for weight loss and malnutrition, in particular those discharged from hospital, and those with physical dependency or cognitive problems. This study may provide incentives to create tailored preventive strategies

Home care needs of extremely obese elderly european women

Objective: To examine the health and needs of extremely obese women aged over 65 years receiving home care in Europe. Study design: A cross-sectional assessment study based on the Aged in Home Care (AdHOC) project recruited 2974 women aged 65 or over who were receiving home care at 11 sites in European countries. Extreme obesity was defined as ‘Obesity of such a degree as to interfere with normal activities, including respiration’. Main outcome measures: Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC version 2.0); Activity of Daily Living Scale; Instrumental Activity of Daily Living Scale; the Minimum Data Set Cognitive Performance Scale; and a health profile. Results: One hundred and twenty women (4.0%) were extremely obese. They were younger than their thinner counterparts, with a median age of 78.3 versus 83.3 years, and they more often had multiple health complaints and needed more help with mobility outside the home. The extremely obese had received home care longer than the non-extremely obese (median 28.7 versus 36.6 months). Extremely obese women also needed more help with personal care than the other group and, due to lower age, they were less cognitively impaired. Conclusions: Extreme obesity is a problem that increasingly affects home care of elderly women

Caesarean Section among Referred and Self-Referred Birthing Women: A Cohort Study from a Tertiary Hospital, Northeastern Tanzania.

The inequity in emergency obstetric care access in Tanzania is unsatisfactory. Despite an existing national obstetric referral system, many birthing women bypass referring facilities and go directly to higher-level care centres. We wanted to compare Caesarean section (CS) rates among women formally referred to a tertiary care centre versus self-referred women, and to assess the effect of referral status on adverse outcomes after CS. We used data from 21,011 deliveries, drawn from the birth registry of a tertiary hospital in northeastern Tanzania, during 2000-07. Referral status was categorized as self-referred if the woman had bypassed or not accessed referral, or formally-referred if referred by a health worker. Because CS indications were insufficiently registered, we applied the Ten-Group Classification System to determine the CS rate by obstetric group and referral status. Associations between referral status and adverse outcomes after CS delivery were analysed using multiple regression models. Outcome measures were CS, maternal death, obstetric haemorrhage ≥ 750 mL, postpartum stay > 9 days, neonatal death, Apgar score < 7 at 5 min and neonatal ward transfer. Referral status contributed substantially to the CS rate, which was 55.0% in formally-referred and 26.9% in self-referred birthing women. In both groups, term nulliparous singleton cephalic pregnancies and women with previous scar(s) constituted two thirds of CS deliveries. Low Apgar score (adjusted OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.09-1.86) and neonatal ward transfer (adjusted OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35) were significantly associated with formal referral. Early neonatal death rates after CS were 1.6% in babies of formally-referred versus 1.2% in babies of self-referred birthing women, a non-significant difference after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 0.87-2.16). Absolute neonatal death rates were > 2% after CS in breech, multiple gestation and preterm deliveries in both referral groups. Women referred for delivery had higher CS rates and poorer neonatal outcomes, suggesting that the formal referral system successfully identifies high-risk birth, although low volume suggests underutilization. High absolute rates of post-CS adverse outcomes among breech, multiple gestation and preterm deliveries suggest the need to target self-referred birthing women for earlier professional intrapartum care

Penalising model component complexity:A principled, practical approach to constructing priors

In this paper, we introduce a new concept for constructing prior distributions. We exploit the natural nested structure inherent to many model components, which defines the model component to be a flexible extension of a base model. Proper priors are defined to penalise the complexity induced by deviating from the simpler base model and are formulated after the input of a user-defined scaling parameter for that model component, both in the univariate and the multivariate case. These priors are invariant to reparameterisations, have a natural connection to Jeffreys' priors, are designed to support Occam's razor and seem to have excellent robustness properties, all which are highly desirable and allow us to use this approach to define default prior distributions. Through examples and theoretical results, we demonstrate the appropriateness of this approach and how it can be applied in various situations