Voting for Secular Parties in the Middle East: Evidence from the 2014 General Elections in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia

Arab uprisings paved the way for democratic elections in the Middle East and North Africa region. Yet countries in this region, except for Tunisia, were not able to maintain further democratization. Tunisia, regardless of economic turbulence and security problems, managed to hold its second parliamentary elections in October 2014, and Ennahda, the party of the popular Islamist movement, could not keep mass support. A large number of studies have examined the rise of the Islamist parties as their electoral success in the post- Arab Uprisings elections by focusing on their organizational strength as well as their social services. However, the social basis of secular parties in the region has been overlooked in the democratization literature. In this study, four competing arguments, religious–secularism cleavage, nostalgia for the old regime, negative campaign targeting Islamists, and retrospective voting, are considered as the key determinants of citizens’ party choices. By using original election survey data, this study asserts that secular Nidaa Tounes derived its support from secular people, who, at the same time, sympathized with the old regime and disfavoured Islamists

In election years, ballot box success for governors also helps presidential candidates, but not the other way around

The US is not just electing a new president in 2016 – in 12 states voters will also be able to choose their next governor. In new research, Amuitz Garmendia Madariaga and H. Ege Ozen examine how presidential and gubernatorial candidates’ electoral fortunes are intertwined. They find that voters are more likely to cast a straight ticket ballots in presidential election years, and that successful gubernatorial candidates actually provide a vote boost for presidential candidates at the state level, not the other way around

Looking for two-sided coattail effects: Integrated parties and multilevel elections in the U.S.

In the context of the American federalism, integrated parties provide the necessary coordination mechanism for state and federal politicians to be electorally successful. This argument rests on the assumption that voters are able to observe the benefits of voting a straight ticket. We test this individual level explanation by using the CCES data. Moreover, at the aggregate level, we measure the so-called ‘two-sided’ coattail effects in concurrent multilevel elections in the U.S. since 1960. By using a simultaneous equation model, we estimate the reciprocal relationship between presidential and gubernatorial vote shares at the state level. While we find no consistent presidential coattails, we reveal robust and significant gubernatorial coattail effects on state-level presidential vote, underscoring the role of multilevel forces within parties in democratic federations

Incumbency advantage is not restricted to established majoritarian systems

To date, most scholarly works have focused on incumbency advantage in the US and consider how it operates in majoritarian contexts. In a recent paper, Mert Moral, H. Ege Ozen and Efe Tokdemir drew on the case of Turkey to explore whether the incumbency operates in multi member district systems. They found that although it is not as marked as in the US context, considerable incumbency advantage persisted in the more proportional system

Pengaruh Metode Group To Group Exchange Berbantuan Media Gambar terhadap Hasil Belajar Kognitif Siswa pada Materi Ekosistem

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh metode group to group exchange berbantuan media gambar terhadap hasil belajar kognitif siswa pada materi ekosistem di kelas VII Sekolah Menengah Pertama Negeri 4 Sekadau Hilir. Variabel bebas dalam penelitian ini adalah metode group to group exchange dengan media gambar dan variabel terikat adalah hasil belajar kognitif. Pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah kuantitatif. Metode yang diterapkan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode Eksperimen. Bentuk penelitian adalah penelitian Quasi Experimental Design. Desain penelitian yang digunakan adalah Nonequivalent Control GroupDesign. Populasi dalam penelitian adalah seluruh siswa kelas VII SMP Negeri 4 Sekadau Hilir yang berjumlah 57 siswa. Sampel dalam penelitian ini kelas VII A sebagai kelas eksperimen dengan jumlah 28 siswa dan kelas VII B sebagai kelas kontrol dengan jumlah 29 siswa. Teknik sampling yang digunakan adalah Sampling Jenuh. Teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah teknik observasi langsung, teknik pengukuran, dan teknik komunikasi tidak langsung. Alat pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah lembar observasi, soal tes, dan angket. Data yang diperoleh menunjukan proses pembelajaran berlangsung dengan persentase 100%. Nilai hasil belajar kognitif diperoleh nilai rata-rata pretest pada kelas eksperimen 40,80 dan kontrol 39,52. Uji U Mann Whitney data pretest menunjukan –Ztabal-1,96) maka Ha diterima. Hasil angket menunjukan kriteria kuat 85,92%. Disimpulkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan penggunaan metode group to group exchange berbantuan media gambar terhadap hasil belajar kognitif siswa pada materi ekosistem di kelas VII Sekolah Menengah Pertama Negeri 4 Sekadau Hilir

Plastron properties of a superhydrophobic surface

Most insects and spiders drown when submerged during flooding or tidal inundation, but some are able to survive and others can remain submerged indefinitely without harm. Many achieve this by natural adaptations to their surface morphology to trap films of air, creating plastrons which fix the water-vapor interface and provide an incompressible oxygen-carbon dioxide exchange surface. Here the authors demonstrate how the surface of an extremely water-repellent foam mimics this mechanism of underwater respiration and allows direct extraction of oxygen from aerated water. The biomimetic principle demonstrated can be applied to a wide variety of man-made superhydrophobic materials

Mobilizing for what? Polarized citizens and electoral turnout in transitioning Tunisia

In countries that have recently transitioned to democracy, what factors most drive citizens to mobilize and participate in early elections? Many comparative studies on democratization and elections stress the vital importance of early elections in new democracies – with voter turnout inexorably linked to a democracy’s long-term stability and legitimacy – however, much of this literature focuses on aggregate rather than individual-level behaviour, and very little targets the Middle East/North Africa region. This study closely examines individual voting behaviour in democratizing Tunisia’s critical second election in 2014. We argue that amidst great uncertainty, the polarizing issues of national and political identity created systematic disparities in participation – with the most ideologically polarized citizens/social groups more likely to vote. Using original data from a survey conducted in Tunisia right after its November 2014 elections, we find that Tunisians were sharply divided in their support for democracy, the previous regime, and Islamic governance. Specifically, Tunisians who were more ideologically polarized along its secular-Islamist divide and those more satisfied with the new democratic system were more likely to vote – overall suggesting somewhat uneven electoral participation in this critical election and, therefore, the potential for the kind of instability conducive to democratic breakdown