Essays in Empirical Finance

The three chapters of this thesis contain contributions to distinct branches of the finance literature---corporate finance, accounting, and household finance. Although the chapters address questions with little overlap, they share one common element. All chapters emphasise the paramount role of expectations in financial markets. Theoretical arguments, both rational and irrational (e.g., Fama (1970), Shiller (1981)), suggest that investors' expectations are central to the formation of stock prices. Because expectations themselves are rarely directly observable, much research in empirical finance uses changes in stock prices to infer changes in expectations. The first two chapters of this thesis build on the appealing intuition of this approach. In both chapters, I inspect the behaviour of stock prices around events that prior literature considers value-relevant. In neither chapter, however, I treat changes in prices as ends in themselves. Rather, to understand why investors changed their expectations of firm value, both chapters attempt to simultaneously identify changes in fundamentally relevant information. The first chapter takes a purely empirical, exploratory approach to this issue by looking at the long-term consequences of hedge-fund activism in German firms. The second chapter embeds the same rationale in a stylised theoretical model that allows me to empirically analyse the value of sell-side analysts' recommendation revisions in a more structured way. The third chapter of this thesis analyses the role of expectations in investors' decisions to invest in the stock market. Expectations, in particular those about risk and return, are assigned a major part in models of stock market participation. Patterns in empirically elicited expectations, however, suggest that the latter are measured with error (e.g., Manski (2004), Hurd (2009)). In the paper that underlies this chapter, Benjamin Enke, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, and I argue that the magnitude of this measurement error can be used to uncover heterogeneity in households' choice behaviour. We empirically assess this hypothesis using data on expectations and stock market participation specifically collected for this purpose as part of a representative survey.</div

Measurement Error in Subjective Expectations and the Empirical Content of Economic Models

While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We ar-gue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which economic models of portfolio choice provide an ade-quate representation of individual decision processes. In order to explore this conjecture empirically, we estimate a semiparametric double index model on a dataset specifically collected for this purpose. Stock market participation reacts strongly to changes in model parameters for respondents at the lower end of the measurement error distribution; these effects are much less pronounced for individuals at the upper end. Our findings indicate that measurement error in subjective expectations provides useful information to uncover heterogeneity in choice behavior

Sagittal jaw position in relation to body posture in adult humans – a rasterstereographic study

BACKGROUND: The correlations between the sagittal jaw position and the cranio – cervical inclination are described in literature. Only few studies focus on the sagittal jaw position and the body posture using valid and objective orthopaedic examination methods. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that patients with malocclusions reveal significant differences in body posture compared to those without (upper thoracic inclination, kyphotic angle, lordotic angle and lower lumbar inclination). METHODS: Eighty-four healthy adult patients (with a mean age = 25.6 years and ranging from 16.1 to 55.8 years) were examined with informed consent. The orthodontic examination horizontal overjet (distance between upper and lower incisors) was determined by using an orthodontic digital sliding calliper. The subjects were subdivided in respect of the overjet with the following results: 18 revealed a normal overjet (Class I), 38 had an increased overjet (Class II) and 28 had an reversed overjet (Class III). Rasterstereography was used to carry out a three – dimensional back shape analysis. This method is based on photogrammetry. A three-dimensional shape was produced by analysing the distortion of parallel horizontal white light lines projected on the patient's back, followed by mathematical modelling. On the basis of the sagittal profile the upper thoracic inclination, the thoracic angle, the lordotic angle and the pelvic inclination were determined with a reported accuracy of 2.8° and the correlations to the sagittal jaw position were calculated by means of ANOVA, Scheffé and Kruskal-Wallis procedures. RESULTS: Between the different overjet groups, no statistically significant differences or correlations regarding the analysed back shape parameters could be obtained. However, comparing males and females there were statistically significant differences in view of the parameters 'lordotic angle' and 'pelvic inclination'. CONCLUSION: No correlations between overjet and variables of the thoracic, lordotic or the pelvic inclination could be observed

Age- and Gender-Specific Normative Data of Grip and Pinch Strength in a Healthy Adult Swiss Population

Assessment of hand strength is used in a wide range of clinical settings especially during treatment of diseases affecting the function of the hand. This investigation aimed to determine age- and gender-specific reference values for grip and pinch strength in a normal Swiss population with special regard to old and very old subjects as well as to different levels of occupational demand. Hand strength data were collected using a Jamar dynamometer and a pinch gauge with standard testing position, protocol and instructions. Analysis of the data from 1023 tested subjects between 18 and 96 years revealed a curvilinear relationship of grip and pinch strength to age, a correlation to height, weight and significant differences between occupational groups. Hand strength values differed significantly from those of other populations, confirming the thesis that applying normative data internationally is questionable. Age- and gender-specific reference values for grip and pinch strength are presented

Quality of life and clinical characteristics of self-improving congenital ichthyosis within the disease spectrum of autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis

Background Autosomal-recessive congenital ichthyosis (ARCI) is a heterogeneous group of ichthyoses presenting at birth. Self-improving congenital ichthyosis (SICI) is a subtype of ARCI and is diagnosed when skin condition improves remarkably (within years) after birth. So far, there are sparse data on SICI and quality of life (QoL) in this ARCI subtype. This study aims to further delineate the clinical spectrum of SICI as a rather unique subtype of ARCI. Objectives This prospective study included 78 patients (median age: 15 years) with ARCI who were subdivided in SICI (n = 18) and non-SICI patients (nSICI, n = 60) by their ARCI phenotype. Methods Quality of life (QoL) was assessed using the (Children's) Dermatology Life Quality Index. Statistical analysis was performed with chi-squared and t-Tests. Results The genetically confirmed SICI patients presented causative mutations in the following genes: ALOXE3 (8/16; 50.0%), ALOX12B (6/16; 37.5%), PNPLA1 (1/16; 6.3%) and CYP4F22 (1/16; 6.3%). Hypo-/anhidrosis and insufficient vitamin D levels (<30 ng/mL) were often seen in SICI patients. Brachydactyly (a shortening of the 4th and 5th fingers) was statistically more frequent in SICI (P = 0.023) than in nSICI patients. A kink of the ear's helix was seen in half of the SICI patients and tends to occur more frequently in patients with ALOX12B mutations (P = 0.005). QoL was less impaired in patients under the age of 16, regardless of ARCI type. Conclusions SICI is an underestimated, milder clinical variant of ARCI including distinct features such as brachydactyly and kinking of the ears. Clinical experts should be aware of these features when seeing neonates with a collodion membrane. SICI patients should be regularly checked for clinical parameters such as hypo-/anhidrosis or vitamin D levels and monitored for changes in quality of life

Erarbeitung betriebsindividueller Handlungsempfehlungen zur Verbesserung der Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit im Rahmen einer interdisziplinären Interventionsstudie

Kernziel des im Rahmen des Bundesprogramms Ökologischer Landbau initiierten Forschungsvorhabens „Gesundheit und Leistungsfähigkeit von Milchkühen im ökologischen Landbau interdisziplinär betrachtet“ (FKZ 07OE012 - 07OE022) ist - neben der Abschätzung des Risikos für Stoffwechselstörungen und Eutererkrankungen - die Entwicklung eines praxistauglichen, präventiv orientierten Tiergesundheitsmanagements für die Praxis der ökologischen Milchviehhaltung. Basierend auf einer Interventionsstudie auf 106 repräsentativ ausgewählten Milchviehbetrieben soll dieses Managementkonzept in einer zweijährigen Praxisphase validiert und auf seine Praxistauglichkeit überprüft werden. Als Grundlage für die Identifikation einzelbetrieblicher Interventionsmaßnahmen dienen zentrale Indikatoren der Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit, deren Abgleich mit im Vorfeld definierten Zielgrößen sowie Informationen zur Haltungsumwelt und zum Herdenmanagement. Das entwickelte Konzept soll eine einzelbetriebliche Einschätzung des Gesundheitsstatus der Milchviehherde bezüglich der Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit ermöglichen, auf deren Basis Handlungsempfehlungen zur nachhaltigen Verbesserung der Milchviehgesundheit abgeleitet werden können. Die Projektbetriebe setzten zwei Drittel der empfohlenen Maßnahmen um; eine abschließende Effektivitätskontrolle in Bezug auf die Verbesserung der Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit auf den Betrieben auf Basis der Daten des letzten Projektjahres steht noch aus

Measurement of vertebral rotation in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with low-dose CT in prone position - method description and reliability analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To our knowledge there is no report in the literature on measurements of vertebral rotation with low-dose computed tomography (CT) in prone position.</p> <p>Aims</p> <p>To describe and test the reliability of this new method, compare it with other methods in use and evaluate the influence of body position on the degree of vertebral rotation measured by different radiological methods.</p> <p>Study design</p> <p>Retrospective study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>25 consecutive patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis scheduled for surgery (17 girls, 8 boys) aged 15 ± 2 years (mean ± SD) were included in the analysis of this study. The degree of the vertebral rotation was in all patients measured according to the method of Perdriolle on standing plain radiographs and on supine CT scanogram, and according to the method of Aaro and Dahlborn on axial CT images in prone position and on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in supine position. The measurements were done by one neuroradiologist at two different occasions. Bland and Altman statistical approach was used in the reliability assessment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The reliability of measuring vertebral rotation by axial CT images in prone position was almost perfect with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.95, a random error of the intraobserver differences of 2.3°, a repeatability coefficient of 3.2° and a coefficient of variation of 18.4%. Corresponding values for measurements on CT scanogram were 0.83, 5.1°, 7.2°, and 32.8%, respectively, indicating lower reliability of the latter modality and method. The degree of vertebral rotation measured on standing plain radiographs, prone CT scanogram, axial images on CT in prone position and on MRI in supine position were 25.7 ± 9.8°, 21.9 ± 8.3°, 17.4 ± 7.1°, and 16.1 ± 6.5°, respectively. The vertebral rotation measured on axial CT images in prone position was in average 7.5% larger than that measured on axial MRI in supine position.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study has shown that measurements of vertebral rotation in prone position were more reliable on axial CT images than on CT scanogram. The measurement of vertebral rotation on CT (corrected to the pelvic tilt) in prone position imposes lower impact of the recumbent position on the vertebral rotation than did MRI in supine position. However, the magnitude of differences is of doubtful clinical significance.</p

Vertebral rotation measurement: a summary and comparison of common radiographic and CT methods

Current research has provided a more comprehensive understanding of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) as a three-dimensional spinal deformity, encompassing both lateral and rotational components. Apart from quantifying curve severity using the Cobb angle, vertebral rotation has become increasingly prominent in the study of scoliosis. It demonstrates significance in both preoperative and postoperative assessment, providing better appreciation of the impact of bracing or surgical interventions. In the past, the need for computer resources, digitizers and custom software limited studies of rotation to research performed after a patient left the scoliosis clinic. With advanced technology, however, rotation measurements are now more feasible. While numerous vertebral rotation measurement methods have been developed and tested, thorough comparisons of these are still relatively unexplored. This review discusses the advantages and disadvantages of six common measurement techniques based on technology most pertinent in clinical settings: radiography (Cobb, Nash-Moe, Perdriolle and Stokes' method) and computer tomography (CT) imaging (Aaro-Dahlborn and Ho's method). Better insight into the clinical suitability of rotation measurement methods currently available is presented, along with a discussion of critical concerns that should be addressed in future studies and development of new methods

Gesundheit und Leistungsfähigkeit von Milchkühen im ökologischen Landbau interdisziplinär betrachtet – eine (Interventions-) Studie zu Stoffwechselstörungen und Eutererkrankungen unter Berücksichtigung von Grundfuttererzeugung, Fütterungsmanagement und Tierhaltung

Im Mittelpunkt des Projektes stand die Stoffwechsel- und Eutergesundheit von ökologisch gehaltenen Milchkühen im prä- und peripartalen Zeitraum sowie in den ersten 100 Laktationstagen und deren Beeinflussung durch die Futter- und Nährstoffversorgung und die Haltungsumwelt im umfassenden Sinn. In einer bundesweiten Feldstudie auf 106 ökologisch wirtschaftenden Milchviehbetrieben erfolgten Erhebungen mit dem Ziel einer Risikomodellierung zu Stoffwechsel- und Eutererkrankungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurden die Produktionssysteme von der Pflanzenzusammensetzung im Grünland und im Ackerfutter über die Grobfutterproduktion, Futterqualität und Rationsgestaltung, Haltungsumwelt bis hin zur Tiergesundheit und Milchqualität analysiert, um hier einzelbetriebliche Risikoeinschätzungen vorzunehmen, Optimierungspotenziale aufzuzeigen und Handlungsempfehlungen abzuleiten, die anschließend betriebsindividuell implementiert wurden. Die Effektivität des so geschaffenen präventiv orientierten Tiergesundheitsmanagements wurde anhand der Entwicklung ausgewählter Kennzahlen der Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit geprüft. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass sich mit dieser Vorgehensweise auch unter Praxisbedingungen die Tiergesundheitssituation signifikant verbes-sern lässt. Die Feldstudie wurde mit experimentellen Untersuchungen ergänzt, die sich speziellen Fragen der Analyse von nXP in Grasprodukten, des Kraftfuttereinsatzes, der Wahl der geeigneten Rasse, dem Infektionsgeschehen, der Nutzung von Haltungstechniken im Fütterungsmanagement und der Verbesserung der Grasnarbe widmeten. Die im Projekt generierten, aufgrund ihrer Ableitung aus der Praxis widerspruchsarmen Erkenntnisse wurden über vielfältige Formen des Wissenstransfers an die Akteure in der Ökologischen Milchviehhaltung vermittelt. Ein Merkblatt zur Euter- und Stoffwechselgesundheit bei Biomilchkühen und ein modular aufgebautes Wissenstransferkonzept wurden erarbeitet, um die Projektergebnisse nachhaltig nutzen zu können

Effectiveness of Chêneau brace treatment for idiopathic scoliosis: prospective study in 79 patients followed to skeletal maturity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Progressive idiopathic scoliosis can negatively influence the development and functioning of 2-3% of adolescents, with health consequences and economic costs, placing the disease in the centre of interest of the developmental medicine. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Chêneau brace in the management of idiopathic scoliosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective observational study according to SOSORT and SRS recommendations comprised 79 patients (58 girls and 21 boys) with progressive idiopathic scoliosis, treated with Chêneau brace and physiotherapy, with initial Cobb angle between 20 and 45 degrees, no previous brace treatment, Risser 4 or more at the final evaluation and minimum one year follow-up after weaning the brace. Achieving 50° of Cobb angle was considered surgical recommendation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At follow-up 20 patients (25.3%) improved, 18 patients (22.8%) were stable, 31 patients (39.2%) progressed below 50 degrees and 10 patients (12.7%) progressed beyond 50 degrees (2 of these 10 patients progressed beyond 60 degrees). Progression concerned the younger and less skeletally mature patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Conservative treatment with Chêneau orthosis and physiotherapy was effective in halting scoliosis progression in 48.1% of patients. The results of this study suggest that bracing is effective in reducing the incidence of surgery in comparison with natural history.</p