The chaotic behavior of the black hole system GRS 1915+105

A modified non-linear time series analysis technique, which computes the correlation dimension $D_2$, is used to analyze the X-ray light curves of the black hole system GRS 1915+105 in all twelve temporal classes. For four of these temporal classes $D_2$ saturates to $\approx 4-5$ which indicates that the underlying dynamical mechanism is a low dimensional chaotic system. Of the other eight classes, three show stochastic behavior while five show deviation from randomness. The light curves for four classes which depict chaotic behavior have the smallest ratio of the expected Poisson noise to the variability ($< 0.05$) while those for the three classes which depict stochastic behavior is the highest ($> 0.2$). This suggests that the temporal behavior of the black hole system is governed by a low dimensional chaotic system, whose nature is detectable only when the Poisson fluctuations are much smaller than the variability.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

The Deficit of Distant Galaxy Clusters in the RIXOS X-ray Survey

Clusters of galaxies are the largest gravitationally bound systems and therefore provide an important way of studying the formation and evolution of the large scale structure of the Universe. Cluster evolution can be inferred from observations of the X-ray emission of the gas in distant clusters, but interpreting these data is not straightforward. In a simplified view, clusters grow from perturbations in the matter distribution: their intracluster gas is compressed and shock-heated by the gravitational collapse$^{1}$. The resulting X-ray emission is determined by the hydrostatic equilibrium of the gas in the changing gravitational potential. However, if processes such as radiative cooling or pre-collapse heating of the gas are important, then the X-ray evolution will be strongly influenced by the thermal history of the gas. Here we present the first results from a faint flux-limited sample of X-ray selected clusters compiled as part of the ROSAT International X-ray and Optical Survey (RIXOS). Very few distant clusters have been identified. Most importantly, their redshift distribution appears to be inconsistent with simple models based on the evolution of the gravitational potential. Our results suggest that radiative cooling or non-gravitational heating of the intracluster gas must play an important role in the evolution of clusters.Comment: uuencoded compressed postscript. The preprint is also available at http://www.ast.cam.ac.uk/preprint/PrePrint.htm

Leeway for the loyal: a model of employee discretion

This article examines the factors underlying task discretion from an economist's perspective. It argues that the key axis for understanding discretion is the trade-off between the positive effects of discretion on potential output per employee and the negative effects of greater leeway on work effort. In empirical analysis using matched employer-employee data, it is shown that discretion is strongly affected by the level of employee commitment. In addition, discretion is generally greater in high-skilled jobs, although not without exceptions, and lower where employees are under-skilled. Homeworking and flexitime policies raise employee discretion. The impact of teamworking is mixed. In about half of cases team members do not jointly decide about work matters, and the net effect of teams on task discretion in these cases is negative. In other cases, where team members do decide matters jointly, the impact is found to be neutral according to employees' perceptions, or positive according to managers' perceptions. There are also significant and substantial unobserved establishment-level factors which affect task discretion

Photometric Variability in the Ultracool Dwarf BRI 0021-0214: Possible Evidence for Dust Clouds

We report CCD photometric monitoring of the nonemission ultracool dwarf BRI 0021-0214 (M9.5) obtained during 10 nights in 1995 November and 4 nights in 1996 August, with CCD cameras at 1 m class telescopes on the observatories of the Canary Islands. We present differential photometry of BRI 0021-0214, and we report significant variability in the I-band light curve obtained in 1995. A periodogram analysis finds a strong peak at a period of 0.84 day. This modulation appears to be transient because it is present in the 1995 data but not in the 1996 data. We also find a possible period of 0.20 day, which appears to be present in both the 1995 and 1996 datasets. However, we do not find any periodicity close to the rotation period expected from the spectroscopic rotational broadening (< 0.14 day). BRI 0021-0214 is a very inactive object, with extremely low levels of Halpha and X-ray emission. Thus, it is unlikely that magnetically induced cool spots can account for the photometric variability. The photometric variability of BRI 0021-0214 could be explained by the presence of an active meteorology that leads to inhomogeneous clouds on the surface. The lack of photometric modulation at the expected rotational period suggests that the pattern of surface features may be more complicated than previously anticipated.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 26 pages, 13 figures include

The association between bacterial infections and the risk of coronary heart disease in type 1 diabetes

Background Diabetes increases the risk of infections as well as coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether infections increase the risk of CHD and how this applies to individuals with diabetes is unclear. Objectives To investigate the association between bacterial infections and the risk of CHD in type 1 diabetes. Methods Individuals with type 1 diabetes (n = 3781) were recruited from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy Study (FinnDiane), a prospective follow-up study. CHD was defined as incident events: fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass surgery or percutaneous coronary intervention, identified through national hospital discharge register data. Infections were identified through national register data on all antibiotic purchases from outpatient care. Register data were available from 1.1.1995-31.12.2015. Bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) activity was measured from serum samples at baseline. Data on traditional risk factors for CHD were collected during baseline and consecutive visits. Results Individuals with an incident CHD event (n = 370) had a higher mean number of antibiotic purchases per follow-up year compared to those without incident CHD (1.34 [95% CI: 1.16-1.52], versus 0.79 [0.76-0.82],P <0.001), as well as higher levels of LPS activity (0.64 [0.60-0.67], versus 0.58 EU mL(-1)[0.57-0.59],P <0.001). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, the mean number of antibiotic purchases per follow-up year was an independent risk factor for incident CHD (HR 1.21, 95% CI: 1.14-1.29,P <0.0001). High LPS activity was a risk factor for incident CHD (HR 1.93 [1.34-2.78],P <0.001) after adjusting for static confounders. Conclusion Bacterial infections are associated with an increased risk of incident CHD in individuals with type 1 diabetes.Peer reviewe

Solar-insolation-induced changes in the coma morphology of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Optical monitoring with the Nordic Optical Telescope

Context. 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G) is a short-period Jupiter family comet with an orbital period of 6.55 years. Being the target comet of ESA’s Rosetta mission, 67P/C-G has become one of the most intensively studied minor bodies of the Solar System. The Rosetta Orbiter and the Philae Lander have brought us unique information about the structure and activity of the comet nucleus, as well as its activity along the orbit, composition of gas, and dust particles emitted into the coma. However, as Rosetta stayed in very close proximity to the cometary nucleus (less than 500 km with a few short excursions reaching up to 1500 km), it could not see the global picture of a coma at the scales reachable by telescopic observations (103 - 105 km). Aims. In this work we aim to connect in-situ observations made by Rosetta with the morphological evolution of the coma structures monitored by the ground-based observations. In particular, we concentrate on causal relationships between the coma morphology and evolution observed with the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) in the Canary Islands, and the seasonal changes of the insolation and the activity of the comet observed by the Rosetta instruments. Methods. Comet 67P/C-G was monitored with the NOT in imaging mode in two colors. Imaging optical observations were performed roughly on a weekly basis, which provides good coverage of short- and long-term variability. With the three dimensional modeling of the coma produced by active regions on the Southern Hemisphere, we aim to qualify the observed morphology by connecting it to the activity observed by Rosetta. Results. During our monitoring program, we detected major changes in the coma morphology of comet 67P/C-G. These were longterm and long-lasting changes. They do not represent any sudden outburst or short transient event, but are connected to seasonal changes of the surface insolation and the emergence of new active regions on the irregular shaped comet nucleus. We have also found significant deviations in morphological changes from the prediction models based on previous apparitions of 67P/C-G, like the time delay of the morphology changes and the reduced activity in the Northern Hemisphere. According to our modeling of coma structures and geometry of observations, the changes are clearly connected with the activity in the Southern Hemisphere observed by the Rosetta spacecraft

Testing black hole no-hair theorem with OJ287

We examine the ability to test the black hole no-hair theorem at the 10% level in this decade using the binary black hole in OJ287. In the test we constrain the value of the dimensionless parameter q that relates the scaled quadrupole moment and spin of the primary black hole: q2 = -q 2 . At the present we can say that q = 1 \pm 0.3 (one), in agreement with General Relativity and the no-hair theorems. We demonstrate that this result can be improved if more observational data is found in historical plate archives for the 1959 and 1971 outbursts. We also show that the predicted 2015 and 2019 outbursts will be crucial in improving the accuracy of the test. Space-based photometry is required in 2019 July due the proximity of OJ287 to the Sun at the time of the outburst. The best situation would be to carry out the photometry far from the Earth, from quite a different vantage point, in order to avoid the influence of the nearby Sun. We have considered in particular the STEREO space mission which would be ideal if it has a continuation in 2019 or LORRI on board the New Horizons mission to Pluto.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figure

Measuring Black Hole Spin in OJ287

We model the binary black hole system OJ287 as a spinning primary and a non-spinning secondary. It is assumed that the primary has an accretion disk which is impacted by the secondary at specific times. These times are identified as major outbursts in the light curve of OJ287. This identification allows an exact solution of the orbit, with very tight error limits. Nine outbursts from both the historical photographic records as well as from recent photometric measurements have been used as fixed points of the solution: 1913, 1947, 1957, 1973, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2007 outbursts. This allows the determination of eight parameters of the orbit. Most interesting of these are the primary mass of $1.84\cdot 10^{10} M_\odot$, the secondary mass $1.46\cdot 10^{8} M_\odot$, major axis precession rate $39^\circ.1$ per period, and the eccentricity of the orbit 0.70. The dimensionless spin parameter is $0.28\:\pm\:0.01$ (1 sigma). The last parameter will be more tightly constrained in 2015 when the next outburst is due. The outburst should begin on 15 December 2015 if the spin value is in the middle of this range, on 3 January 2016 if the spin is 0.25, and on 26 November 2015 if the spin is 0.31. We have also tested the possibility that the quadrupole term in the Post Newtonian equations of motion does not exactly follow Einstein's theory: a parameter $q$ is introduced as one of the 8 parameters. Its value is within 30% (1 sigma) of the Einstein's value $q = 1$. This supports the $no-hair theorem$ of black holes within the achievable precision. We have also measured the loss of orbital energy due to gravitational waves. The loss rate is found to agree with Einstein's value with the accuracy of 2% (1 sigma).Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, IAU26