An Application of Price and Quantity Indexes in the Analysis of Changes in Expenditures on Physician Services

Price and quantity indexes are applied in the analysis of expenditure on physician services in the province of Ontario, Canada, using newly available data files for 1992 and 2004. Price indexes for such services are found to have increased less rapidly than indexes of general inflation and quantity indexes are found to account for the largest share of physician expenditure increases. The quantity indexes imply substantial gains in services per capita, especially for older adults. They imply also an increase in labour productivity for physicians that is somewhat greater than the corresponding increase for the economy at large.physician services; price and quantity indexes

Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".fertility; population; labour force; dependency ratio

Projections of the Population and Labour Force to 2046: The Provinces and Territories

This report makes available projections of the population and labour force of each of the provinces and territories of Canada. The projections extend to 2046, and are based on information that is up-to-date at the time of release. The report provides an indication of the capabilities of the MEDS software on which the projections are based.population; labour force; projection

MEDS-E Users' Manual

This report is the Users' Manual that accompanies MEDS-E, the economic component of a new Windows-based version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) software. MEDS-E is designed to make use of the all-Canada population and labour force projections from MEDS-D in projecting various Canadian macro-economic aggregates. The projections, which are made year-to-year, extend as far as 2051. The time paths of the economic projections are determined by the population and labour inputs, type of aggregate production function chosen, rates of depreciation, and investment, consumption, and other parameters. A set of "standard" assumptions is provided, but users can change those assumptions.macroeconomic projections, economic-demographic system

Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy

This report has two purposes: (1) to introduce a new version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic Demographic System) software; and (2) to apply it in a series of illustrative projections. The software is designed to illustrate the medium- to longer-term responses of the Canadian population and economy to a wide range of factors on either the demographic side, such as changes in rates of fertility, migration, and mortality, or the economic side, such as changes in the rate of technical progress or the educational attainment of young people or of new immigrants. "Standard" projections are provided, together with nineteen alternative projections. (For some illustrative projections, see http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep.) The range of projections indicates the breadth of applications for which MEDS has been designed. It serves also to provide some quantitative measures of the likely demographic and economic consequences of population aging, and indicates the scope for evaluating policy initiatives by means of simulation.population, labour force, economy, projection system

Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Poulation and Labour Force

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden".fertility; population; labour force; dependency ratio

Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.mortality; life expectancy; stochastic forecasting

MEDS-E Users' Manual

This report is the Users' Manual that accompanies MEDS-E, the economic component of a new Windows-based version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) software. MEDS-E is designed to make use of the all-Canada population and labour force projections from MEDS-D in projecting various Canadian macro-economic aggregates. The projections, which are made year-to-year, extend as far as 2051. The time paths of the economic projections are determined by the population and labour inputs, type of aggregate production function chosen, rates of depreciation, and investment, consumption, and other parameters. A set of "standard" assumptions is provided, but users can change those assumptions.macroeconomic projections, economic-demographic system

MEDS-D Users' Manual

This report is the Users' Manual that accompanies MEDS-D, the demographic component of a new Windows-based version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) software. MEDS-D is designed for projecting the population, labour force, and number of households for Canada as a whole, for each of the provinces, and for the territories. The projections are made year-by-year, and extend as far as 2051. The time path of projections is determined by assumptions about fertility, mortality, international and interprovincial migration, household formation, labour force participation and unemployment. "Standard", "high growth", and "slow growth" projections are provided. It is easy to explore the implications of alternative assumptions and to input newly available data.population, labour force, projection