A project to investigate mechanisms and methodologies for the design and construction of communicating concurrent processes in real-time environments

Research undertaken in 1979 into effective and appropriate mechanisms to aid in the design and construction of software for use in the flight research programs undertaken by NASA is presented

Statistical Outlier Detection (SOD): A computer program for detecting outliers in data

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [-5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [-5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Influence of wave phase difference between surface soil heat flux and soil surface temperature on land surface energy balance closure

The sensitivity of climate simulations to the diurnal variation in surface energy budget encourages enhanced inspection into the energy balance closure failure encountered in micrometeorological experiments. The diurnal wave phases of soil surface heat flux and temperature are theoretically characterized and compared for both moist soil and absolute dry soil surfaces, indicating that the diurnal wave phase difference between soil surface heat flux and temperature ranges from 0 to π/4 for natural soils. Assuming net radiation and turbulent heat fluxes have identical phase with soil surface temper- ature, we evaluate potential contributions of the wave phase difference on the surface energy balance closure. Results show that the sum of sensible heat flux (H ) and latent heat flux (LE ) is always less than surface available energy (Rn − G0) even if all energy components are accurately measured, their footprints are strictly matched, and all cor- rections are made. The energy balance closure ratio (ε) is extremely sensitive to the ratio of soil surface heat flux amplitude (A4) to net radiation flux amplitude (A1), and large value of A4/A1 causes a significant failure in surface energy balance closure. An experimental case study confirms the theoretical analysis

Avaliação de ganho de peso e peso a desmama em bezerros pantaneiros e pantaneiro X nelore, criados a pasto.

O bovino Pantaneiro é uma raça local brasileira que possui entre outras características, grande adaptabilidade às condições ambientais extremas aos quais são submetidos esses animais, no seu habitat natural, o Pantanal. Devido ao sério risco de extinção, a Embrapa Pantanal e parceiros têm dedicado suas pesquisas a conservação e uso desse patrimônio genético, divulgando suas potencialidades como forma de estimular a criação dessa raça em diferentes sistemas produtivos. Com o objetivo de avaliar o ganho de peso diário (GPD) e peso a desmama (PD) de animais da raça Pantaneiro e mestiços Pantaneiro X Nelore, foram coletados pesos de machos e fêmeas ao nascimento e próximo a idade de desmama. Não houve diferença de GPD entre os grupamentos raciais para ambos os sexos. A média de GPD de bezerras Pantaneiras e mestiças foi 0,575 kg/dia e 0,654 kg/dia, respectivamente. Para bezerros Pantaneiros e mestiços, os valores encontrados foram 0,643 kg/dia e 0,692 kg/dia, respectivamente. Não houve diferença de médias comparadas para o peso a desmama entre os grupamentos raciais para ambos os sexos. A média de PD, ajustado para 205 dias, de bezerras Pantaneiras e mestiças foi 148,3 kg e 161,6 kg, respectivamente. Para bezerros Pantaneiros e mestiços, os valores encontrados foram 161,7 kg e 172,3 kg, respectivamente. Os resultados encontrados foram semelhantes aos descritos na literatura para raça Nelore, principal raça bovina criada em sistema extensivo a pasto, em áreas de Cerrado. Sendo assim, considera-se que a inclusão de bovinos Pantaneiros pode ser uma alternativa viável do uso desse patrimônio genético em sistemas produtivos de cria

Single live-cell imaging for systems biology

Understanding how mammalian cells function requires a dynamic perspective. However, due to the complexity of signalling networks these non-linear systems can easily elude human intuition. The central aim of systems biology is to improve our understanding of the temporal complexity of cell signalling pathways, using a combination of experimental and computational approaches. Live cell imaging and computational modelling are compatible techniques which allow quantitative analysis of cell signalling pathway dynamics. Non-invasive imaging techniques, based on the use of various luciferases and fluorescent proteins, trace cellular events such as gene expression, protein-protein interactions and protein localisation in cells. By employing a number of markers in a single assay, multiple parameters can be measured simultaneously in the same cell. Following acquisition using specialised microscopy, analysis of multi-parameter time-lapse images facilitates the identification of important qualitative and quantitative relationships – linking intracellular signalling, gene expression and cell fate. Improvements in reporter genes coupled with significant advances in detector technologies, are now allowing us to image gene expression non-invasively in individual living cells. These methods are providing remarkable insights into the dynamics of gene expression during complex processes, such as the cell cycle and the responses of cells to hormones, growth factors and nutrients. On a larger scale, dynamics of gene expression may also be monitored in living organisms. This new technology will greatly assist attempts to decipher the complex behaviours exhibited by biological signalling networks, for instance the ability to integrate multiple input signals over time, and generate specific outputs

Modus Vivendi Beyond the Social Contract: Peace, Justice, and Survival in Realist Political Theory

This essay examines the promise of the notion of modus vivendi for realist political theory. I interpret recent theories of modus vivendi as affirming the priority of peace over justice, and explore several ways of making sense of this idea. I proceed to identify two key problems for modus vivendi theory, so conceived. Normatively speaking, it remains unclear how this approach can sustain a realist critique of Rawlsian theorizing about justice while avoiding a Hobbesian endorsement of absolutism. And conceptually, the theory remains wedded to a key feature of social contract theory: political order is conceived as based on agreement. This construes the horizontal tensions among individual or group agents in society as prior to the vertical, authoritative relations between authorities and their subjects. Political authority thereby appears from the start as a solution to societal conflict, rather than a problem in itself. I argue that this way of framing the issue abstracts from political experience. Instead I attempt to rethink the notion of modus vivendi from within the lived experience of political conflict, as oriented not primarily toward peace, but political survival. With this shift of perspective, the idea of modus vivendi shows us, pace Bernard Williams, that the “first political question” is not how to achieve order and stability, but rather: what can I live with

Spatial patterns of western flower thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in apple orchards and associated fruit damage

Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), is an economic pest of apples in orchards of North America. Western flower thrips causes damage (“pansy spot”) to apples by its egglaying activities during the bloom and immediate post—bloom periods. Difficulties in monitoring this pest and incomplete understanding of its biology during the bloom period have complicated control efforts in apple orchards. Densities of western flower thrips were monitored in seven (2003) or eight (2004) apple orchards at each of four bloom stages; in each orchard, thrips counts in blossom clusters were estimated at four to six distances into the orchard from an orchard edge that abutted native sagebrush-steppe habitat. We hypothesized that numbers of thrips in blossoms would decline with increasing distance along transects into orchards if the native habitat acted as a source of thrips. Thrips numbers in blossom clusters peaked at full bloom and petal fall. Densities showed a linear drop with increasing distance into the orchard, which we interpreted as evidence that the native habitat adjacent to each orchard did indeed act as a source of thrips moving into the orchards. Pansy spot incidence declined with increasing distance into the orchard. The major drop in damage occurred between the border row trees and samples taken at the adjacent distance (nine m away), suggesting that border rows adjacent to native habitats should be monitored with particular care. Regression analyses showed that damage and thrips density were positively correlated, albeit with substantial levels of unexplained variation in levels of damage