The Production Rate and Employment of Ph.D. Astronomers

In an effort to encourage self-regulation of the astronomy job market, I examine the supply of, and demand for, astronomers over time. On the supply side, I document the production rate of Ph.D. astronomers from 1970 to 2006 using the UMI Dissertation Abstracts database, along with data from other independent sources. I compare the long-term trends in Ph.D. production with federal astronomy research funding over the same time period, and I demonstrate that additional funding is correlated with higher subsequent Ph.D. production. On the demand side, I monitor the changing patterns of employment using statistics about the number and types of jobs advertised in the AAS Job Register from 1984 to 2006. Finally, I assess the sustainability of the job market by normalizing this demand by the annual Ph.D. production. The most recent data suggest that there are now annual advertisements for about one postdoctoral job, half a faculty job, and half a research/support position for every new domestic Ph.D. recipient in astronomy and astrophysics. The average new astronomer might expect to hold up to 3 jobs before finding a steady position.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, PASP accepte

The abundance of HCN in circumstellar envelopes of AGB stars of different chemical types

A multi-transition survey of HCN (sub-) millimeter line emission from a large sample of AGB stars of different chemical type is presented. The data are analysed and circumstellar HCN abundances are estimated. The sample stars span a large range of properties such as mass-loss rate and photospheric C/O-ratio. The analysis of the new data allows for more accurate estimates of the circumstellar HCN abundances and puts new constraints on chemical models. In order to constrain the circumstellar HCN abundance distribution a detailed non-LTE excitation analysis, based on the Monte Carlo method, is performed. Effects of line overlaps and radiative excitation from dust grains are included. The median values for the derived abundances of HCN (with respect to H2) are 3x10-5, 7x10-7 and 10-7 for carbon stars (25 stars), S-type AGB stars (19 stars) and M-type AGB stars (25 stars), respectively. The estimated sizes of the HCN envelopes are similar to those obtained in the case of SiO for the same sample of sources and agree well with previous results from interferometric observations, when these are available. We find that there is a clear dependence of the derived circumstellar HCN abundance on the C/O-ratio of the star, in that carbon stars have about two orders of magnitude higher abundances than M-type AGB stars, on average. The derived HCN abundances of the S-type AGB stars have a larger spread and typically fall in between those of the two other types, however, slightly closer to the values for the M-type AGB stars. For the M-type stars, the estimated abundances are much higher than what would be expected if HCN is formed in thermal equilibrium. However, the results are also in contrast to predictions from recent non-LTE chemical models, where very little difference is expected in the HCN abundances between the various types of AGB stars.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

A simulation-enhanced lean design process

A traditional lean transformation process does not validate the future state before implementation, relying instead on a series of iterations to modify the system until performance is satisfactory. An enhanced lean process that includes future state validation before implementation is presented. Simulation modeling and experimentation is proposed as the primary validation tool. Simulation modeling and experimentation extends value stream mapping to include time, the behavior of individual entities, structural variability, random variability, and component interaction effects. Experiments to analyze the model and draw conclusions about whether the lean transformation effectively addresses the current state gap can be conducted. Industrial applications of the enhanced lean process show it effectivenessPeer Reviewe

Analysis of a continuous-time model of structural balance

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X^2 where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: either all relationships become friendly, or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions, and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

Invariant submanifold for series arrays of Josephson junctions

We study the nonlinear dynamics of series arrays of Josephson junctions in the large-N limit, where N is the number of junctions in the array. The junctions are assumed to be identical, overdamped, driven by a constant bias current and globally coupled through a common load. Previous simulations of such arrays revealed that their dynamics are remarkably simple, hinting at the presence of some hidden symmetry or other structure. These observations were later explained by the discovery of (N - 3) constants of motion, each choice of which confines the resulting flow in phase space to a low-dimensional invariant manifold. Here we show that the dimensionality can be reduced further by restricting attention to a special family of states recently identified by Ott and Antonsen. In geometric terms, the Ott-Antonsen ansatz corresponds to an invariant submanifold of dimension one less than that found earlier. We derive and analyze the flow on this submanifold for two special cases: an array with purely resistive loading and another with resistive-inductive-capacitive loading. Our results recover (and in some instances improve) earlier findings based on linearization arguments.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

The 3-D kinematics of water masers around the semiregular variable RT Virginis

We report observations of water masers around the semiregular variable RT Virginis (RT Vir), which have been made with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) at five epochs, each separated by three weeks of time. We detected about 60 maser features at each epoch. Overall, 61 features, detected at least twice, were tracked by their radial velocities and proper motions. The 3-D maser kinematics exhibited a circumstellar envelope that is expanding roughly spherically with a velocity of about 8 km/s. Asymmetries in both the spatial and velocity distributions of the maser features were found in the envelope, but less significant than that found in other semiregular variables. Systematic radial-velocity drifts of individual maser features were found with amplitudes of <= 2 km/s/yr. For one maser feature, we found a quadratic position shift with time along a straight line on the sky. This apparent motion indicates an acceleration with an amplitude of 33 km/s/yr, implying the passage of a shock wave driven by the stellar pulsation of RT Vir. The acceleration motion is likely seen only on the sky plane because of a large velocity gradient formed in the accelerating maser region. We estimated the distance to RT Vir to be about 220 pc on the basis of both the statistical parallax and model-fitting methods for the maser kinematics.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures. Accepted to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

The vacuum bubbles in de Sitter background and black hole pair creation

We study the possible types of the nucleation of vacuum bubbles. We classify vacuum bubbles in de Sitter background and present some numerical solutions. The thin-wall approximation is employed to obtain the nucleation rate and the radius of vacuum bubbles. With careful analysis we confirm that Parke's formula is also applicable to the large true vacuum bubbles. The nucleation of the false vacuum bubble in de Sitter background is also evaluated. The tunneling process in the potential with degenerate vacua is analyzed as the limiting cases of the large true vacuum bubble and false vacuum bubble. Next, we consider the pair creation of black holes in the background of bubble solutions. We obtain static bubble wall solutions of junction equation with black hole pair. The masses of created black holes are uniquely determined by the cosmological constant and surface tension on the wall. Finally, we obtain the rate of pair creation of black holes.Comment: 3 figures, minor including errors and typos corrected, and refs. adde

The magnetic field of the proto-planetary nebula candidate IRAS 19296+2227

Context: Magnetic fields are thought to be one of the possible mechanisms responsible for shaping the generally spherical outflow of evolved stars into often aspherical planetary nebulae. However, direct measurements of magnetic fields during the transition to the planetary nebula phase are rare. Aims: The aim of this project is to expand the number of magnetic field measurements of stars in the (proto-)planetary nebula phase and find if the magnetic field strength is sufficient to affect the stellar outflow. Methods: We used Very Long Baseline Array observations to measure the circular polarization due to the Zeeman splitting of 22 GHz water masers in the envelope of the proto-planetary nebula candidate star IRAS 19296+2227 and the planetary nebula K3-35. Results: A strong magnetic field of B||=-135+-28 is detected in the water maser region of the proto-planetary nebula candidate IRAS 19296+2227. The water masers of K3-35 are too weak to detect circular polarization although we do present the measurements of weak linear polarization in those masers. Conclusions: The field measured in the masers of IRAS 19296+2227 is dynamically important and, if it is representative of the large scale field, is an important factor in driving the stellar mass loss and shaping the stellar outflow.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; A&A accepte