Estimating flood forecast performance using inundation data in Soroti, Uganda

This work explores the question “How can data on flood extents derived from Earth Observations (EO) be used to assess the performance of a global flood forecasting model in the ungauged catchment of the Okere and Okok Rivers in Uganda?”. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), is a global hydrological forecast and monitoring system. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa the performance of GloFAS has not been assessed. GloFAS is being used in some parts of Uganda to forecast floods. Recently Africa Risk Capacity has been developing a pan-African flood model for use in underpinning parametric flood insurance. The African Flood Extent Depiction Model (AFED) is a daily depiction of temporarily flooded areas everywhere in Africa over the past 20 years. The AFED uses satellite remote sensing from microwave sensors to map floods. The AFED data set was used to assess the performance of GloFAS for two rivers in Uganda. The AFED flood data consists of a flooded fraction per pixel which ranges from 0 to 1. This is not directly comparable to the river discharges produced by the GloFAS flood forecasting model. In order to compare both datasets and assess GloFAS’s performance, the following steps were taken: Extracting the flooded fraction of the Okok and Okere Rivers. Five methods were explored: Flooded fraction of the most downstream pixel; Catchment average flooded fraction for all non-zero pixels; Maximum flooded fraction in catchment; Number of pixels that are non-zero in the catchment; Sum of flooded fraction of all the pixels in the catchment. Comparing the recorded floods derived from newspaper articles with the EO data to establish if the AFED captures the flooding of the Okok and Okere Rivers. Establishing the range of the flood fraction that signifies flooding in recorded events. Extracting flood events using the peaks of the AFED data and the range of flooding from step 3. Assessing the performance of GloFAS and calculating its skill scores using this extended flood events. Results show that AFED data successfully identifies flooding for the two rivers and can be used to assess GloFAS’s performance

The challenges of developing rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves and national flood hazard maps for the Caribbean

In many Caribbean countries a lack of established good practice methods means that engineers and planners are often unable to plan for and mitigate floods effectively. In most Caribbean states rainfall intensity – duration – frequency (IDF) curves are not readily available. This is a result of the limited quantity of short duration rainfall data available and also because the few IDF curves that have been developed in the region are generally not in the public domain. The lack of readily available IDF curves in the region often results in engineers responsible for the design of key infrastructure inappropriately “transferring” IDF curves developed for islands, where rainfall is less intense, for use in their designs. There are no countries in the Caribbean with nationally consistent flood hazard maps. This often leaves spatial and emergency planners with insufficient information to make important strategic decisions. This paper details the challenges that were faced in producing rainfall IDF curves for return periods up to 1 in 50 years and nationally consistent extreme fluvial flood extent maps with limited data for selected countries within the Caribbean. Recommendations are made for the future development of rainfall IDF curves and national flood maps in the region both in terms of data and organisational requirements

Performance of GloFAS Flood Forecasts using proxy data in Uganda

Capabilities to forecast fluvial flooding are not equality spread across the globe and forecasting systems are especially limited in flood-prone low-income countries (Revilla Romero et al., 2014). The availability of higher spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data and the increase in post processing technology have opened opportunities for fluvial forecasting at a continental and global scale (Emerton et al., 2016a) (Revilla-Romero et al., 2015). This means flood forecasts are available for regions where previously there were no forecasting capabilities. The availability of flood forecasts for flood-prone low-income countries does not directly lead to action being taken in case of flooding. The forecast based financing program of the Red Cross Climate Centre enables early action to be taken using probabilistic forecast information, with the aim of reducing the impacts of flooding (Coughlan de Perez et al 2015). The program uses a combination of forecast models including the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) and is active in multiple location including Tongo, Peru and Uganda. There are many factors at play to create an effective early warning system, including the performance of the forecast. Analysing the performance of forecasts is essential for the further improvement and development of an effective early warning system. However, in low-income countries with a low data availability this is a major challenge. This poster shows the performance of the GloFAS forecast using proxy flood event data in the North East of Uganda and poses the question: “How can the performance of forecasts be analysed when data is limited and uncertain?”

A review of the understanding of uncertainty in a flood forecasting system and the available methods of dealing with it

The increased availability and application of probabilistic weather forecasts in flood forecasting means that the uncertainty arising from the precipitation forecast can be assessed. This has led to a wider interest in how uncertainty is affecting flood forecast systems. In literature there are general techniques and principles available on how to deal with uncertainty. However, there are no of well-accepted guidelines on the implementation these principles and techniques. There is neither coherent terminology nor a systematic approach which means that it is difficult and perhaps even impossible to assess the characteristics and limitations of uncertainty quantification methods. Selecting the most appropriate method to match a specific flood forecasting system is therefore a challenge. The main findings of this review are that there are remaining mathematical and theoretical challenges in uncertainty quantification methods and that this leads to the use of assumptions which in turn could lead to a misrepresentation of the predictive uncertainty

Current Indications of Secondary Enucleation in Retinoblastoma Management: A Position Paper on Behalf of the European Retinoblastoma Group (EURbG).

Secondary enucleation (SE) puts an irreversible end to eye-preserving therapies, whenever their prolongation is expected to violate the presumed state of metastatic grace. At present, it must be acknowledged that clear criteria for SE are missing, leading to empiric and subjective indications commonly related to disease progression or relapse, disease persistence masking the optic nerve head or treatment-related complications obscuring the fundus view. This absence of evidence-based consensus regarding SE is explained by the continuously moving frontiers of the conservative management as a result of diagnostic and therapeutic advances, as well as by the lack of studies sufficiently powered to accurately stratify the risk of metastasis in conservatively treated patients. In this position paper of the European Retinoblastoma Group (EURbG), we give an overview of the progressive shift in the indications for SE over the past decades and propose guidelines to assist decision-making with respect to when SE becomes imperative or recommended, with corresponding absolute and relative SE indications. Further studies and validation of biologic markers correlated with the risk of metastasis are expected to set more precisely the frontiers of conservative management and thus consensual criteria for SE in the future

Summary of the Standards, Options and Recommendations for the use of positron emission tomography with 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDP-PET scanning) in oncology (2002)

GuidelinePractice GuidelineResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Clinical relevance of nine transcriptional molecular markers for the diagnosis of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in tissue and saliva rinse

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Analysis of 23 published transcriptome studies allowed us to identify nine genes displaying frequent alterations in HNSCC (<it>FN1, MMP1, PLAU, SPARC</it>, <it>IL1RN, KRT4, KRT13, MAL</it>, and <it>TGM3</it>). We aimed to independently confirm these dysregulations and to identify potential relationships with clinical data for diagnostic, staging and prognostic purposes either at the tissue level or in saliva rinse.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For a period of two years, we systematically collected tumor tissue, normal matched mucosa and saliva of patients diagnosed with primary untreated HNSCC. Expression levels of the nine genes of interest were measured by RT-qPCR in tumor and healthy matched mucosa from 46 patients. <it>MMP1 </it>expression level was measured by RT-qPCR in the salivary rinse of 51 HNSCC patients and 18 control cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Dysregulation of the nine genes was confirmed by the Wilcoxon test. <it>IL1RN, MAL </it>and <it>MMP1 </it>were the most efficient diagnostic markers of HNSCC, with ROC AUC > 0.95 and both sensitivity and specificity above 91%. No clinically relevant correlation was found between gene expression level in tumor and T stage, N stage, tumor grade, global survival or disease-free survival. Our preliminary results suggests that with 100% specificity, <it>MMP1 </it>detection in saliva rinse is potentially useful for non invasive diagnosis of HNSCC of the oral cavity or oropharynx, but technical improvement is needed since sensitivity was only 20%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>IL1RN, MAL </it>and <it>MMP1 </it>are prospective tumor diagnostic markers for HNSCC. <it>MMP1 </it>overexpression is the most promising marker, and its detection could help identify tumor cells in tissue or saliva.</p

Criteria for evaluation of disease extent by 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine scans in neuroblastoma: a report for the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) Task Force

BackgroundNeuroblastoma is an embryonic tumour of the sympathetic nervous system, metastatic in half of the patients at diagnosis, with a high preponderance of osteomedullary disease, making accurate evaluation of metastatic sites and response to therapy challenging. Metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG), taken into cells via the norepinephrine transporter, provides a sensitive and specific method of assessing tumour in both soft tissue and bone sites. The goal of this report was to develop consensus guidelines for the use of mIBG scans in staging, response assessment and surveillance in neuroblastoma.MethodsThe International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) Task Force, including a multidisciplinary group in paediatric oncology of North and South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia, formed a subcommittee on metastatic disease evaluation, including expert nuclear medicine physicians and oncologists, who developed these guidelines based on their experience and the medical literature, with approval by the larger INRG Task Force.ResultsGuidelines for patient preparation, radiotracer administration, techniques of scanning including timing, energy, specific views, and use of single photon emission computed tomography are included. Optimal timing of scans in relation to therapy and for surveillance is reviewed. Validated semi-quantitative scoring methods in current use are reviewed, with recommendations for use in prognosis and response evaluation.ConclusionsMetaiodobenzylguanidine scans are the most sensitive and specific method of staging and response evaluation in neuroblastoma, particularly when used with a semi-quantitative scoring method. Use of the optimal techniques for mIBG in staging and response, including a semi-quantitative score, is essential for evaluation of the efficacy of new therapy