A Bayesian approach for statistical–physical bulk parameterization of rain microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov chain Monte Carlo experiments

Observationally informed development of a new framework for bulk rain microphysics, the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS; described in Part I of this study), is demonstrated. This scheme’s development is motivated by large uncertainties in cloud and weather simulations associated with approximations and assumptions in existing microphysics schemes. Here, a proof-of-concept study is presented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with BOSS to probabilistically estimate microphysical process rates and parameters directly from a set of synthetically generated rain observations. The framework utilized is an idealized steady-state one-dimensional column rainshaft model with specified column-top rain properties and a fixed thermodynamical profile. Different configurations of BOSS—flexibility being a key feature of this approach—are constrained via synthetic observations generated from a traditional three-moment bulk microphysics scheme. The ability to retrieve correct parameter values when the true parameter values are known is illustrated. For cases when there is no set of true parameter values, the accuracy of configurations of BOSS that have different levels of complexity is compared. It is found that addition of the sixth moment as a prognostic variable improves prediction of the third moment (proportional to bulk rain mass) and rain rate. In contrast, increasing process rate formulation complexity by adding more power terms has little benefit—a result that is explained using further-idealized experiments. BOSS rainshaft simulations are shown to well estimate the true process rates from constraint by bulk rain observations, with the additional benefit of rigorously quantified uncertainty of these estimates

Estimation of age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting of the varicella zoster virus

Studies into the impact of vaccination against the varicella zoster virus (VZV) have increasingly focused on herpes zoster (HZ), which is believed to be increasing in vaccinated populations with decreasing infection pressure. This idea can be traced back to Hope-Simpson's hypothesis, in which a person's immune status determines the likelihood that he/she will develop HZ. Immunity decreases over time, and can be boosted by contact with a person experiencing varicella (exogenous boosting) or by a reactivation attempt of the virus (endogenous boosting). Here we use transmission models to estimate age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting, exogenous as well as endogenous, using zoster incidence data from the Netherlands (2002–2011, n = 7026). The boosting and reactivation rates are estimated with splines, enabling these quantities to be optimally informed by the data. The analyses show that models with high levels of exogenous boosting and estimated or zero endogenous boosting, constant rate of loss of immunity, and reactivation rate increasing with age (to more than 5% per year in the elderly) give the best fit to the data. Estimates of the rates of immune boosting and reactivation are strongly correlated. This has important implications as these parameters determine the fraction of the population with waned immunity. We conclude that independent evidence on rates of immune boosting and reactivation in persons with waned immunity are needed to robustly predict the impact of varicella vaccination on the incidence of HZ.PIENTER2 serological stud

Otimização dos parâmetros hidráulicos do solo por meio de modelagem inversa utilizando o programa "PEST".

As informações dos parâmetros hidráulicos de solo constituem em dados importantes em estudos com modelagem do fluxo de água, transporte de solutos ou contaminantes bem como em simulação de crescimento vegetal. O objetivo desse estudo foi otimizar os parâmetros hidráulicos do solo pelo método de modelagem inversa. Os solos pertencem a duas áreas experimentais conduzidos em área comercial de cana-de-açúcar. O programa PEST (Parameter ESTimation) foi utilizado com o intuito de minimizar a soma dos quadrados dos resíduos entre o conteúdo de água no solo medido nos dois experimentos pelo método gravimétrico, com o conteúdo de água no solo simulada pelo modelo SWAP/WOFOST. A variação do índice estatístico RMSE entre o conteúdo de água no solo medida em campo com o simulado pelo modelo foi semelhante em ambos os locais e em média apresentou valor de 0,0281 e 0,0274 m3 m-3. O método de modelagem inversa realizado pelo programa PEST mostrou ser eficaz na otimização dos parâmetros hidráulicos do solo em ambos os locais de estudo

Bioremoval of humic acid from water by white rot fungi : exploring the removal mechanisms

Altres ajuts: This Research is part of research program "Increasing the utilization of organic waste and low value feeds with help of lignin degrading fungi" with project number 11611, and is supported by the Dutch Technology Foundation STW, which is part of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), and which is partly funded by the Ministry of Economic Affairs.Twelve white rot fungi (WRF) strains were screened on agar plates for their ability to bleach humic acid (HA). Four fungal strains were selected and tested in liquid media for removal of HA. Bioremediation was investigated by HA color removal and changes in the concentration and molecular size distribution of HA by size exclusion chromatography. Trametes versicolor and Phanerochaete chrysosporium showed the highest HA removal efficiency, reaching about 80%. Laccase and manganese peroxidase were measured as extracellular enzymes and their relation to the HA removal by WRF was investigated. Results indicated that nitrogen limitation could enhance the WRF extracellular enzyme activity, but did not necessarily increase the HA removal by WRF. The mechanism of bioremediation by WRF was shown to involve biosorption of HA by fungal biomass and degradation of HA to smaller molecules. Also, contradicting previous reports, it was shown that the decolorization of HA by WRF could not necessarily be interpreted as degradation of HA. Biosorption experiments revealed that HA removal by fungal biomass is dependent not only on the amount of biomass as the sorbent, but also on the fungal species. The involvement of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes was confirmed by comparing the HA removal capability of fungi with and without the presence of a CYP inhibitor. The ability of purified laccase from WRF to solely degrade HA was proven and the importance of mediators was also demonstrated

Pedotransfer functions to estimate water retention parameters of soils in northeastern Brazil.

Abstract: Pedotransfer functions (PTF) were developed to estimate the parameters of the van Genuchten model (1980) to describe soil water retention curves. The data came from various sources, mainly from studies conducted by universities in Northeast Brazil, by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and by a corporation for the development of the São Francisco and Parnaíba river basins (Codevasf), totaling 786 retention curves, which were divided into two data sets: 85 % for the development of PTFs, and 15 % for testing and validation, considered independent data. Aside from the development of general PTFs for all soils together, specific PTFs were developed for the soil classes Ultisols, Oxisols, Entisols, and Alfisols by multiple regression techniques, using a stepwise procedure (forward and backward) to select the best predictors. Two types of PTFs were developed: the first included all predictors (soil density, proportions of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter), and the second only the proportions of sand, silt and clay. The evaluation of adequacy of the PTFs was based on the correlation coefficient (R) and Willmott index (d). To evaluate the PTF for the moisture content at specific pressure heads, we used the root mean square error (RMSE). The PTF- predicted retention curve is relatively poor, except for the residual water content. The inclusion of organic matter as a PTF predictor improved the prediction of parameter (alfa) of van Genuchten. The performance of soil-class-specific PTFs was not better than of the general PTF. Except for the water content of saturated soil estimated by particle size distribution, the tested models for water content prediction at specific pressure heads proved satisfactory. Predictions of water content at pressure heads more negative than -0.6 m, using a PTF considering particle size distribution, are only slightly lower than those obtained by PTFs including bulk density and organic matter content. Resumo: Foram desenvolvidas funções de pedotransferência (PTFs) para estimar os parâmetros do modelo de van Genuchten (1980), utilizados para descrever curvas de retenção de água no solo. Os dados usados foram provenientes de diversas fontes, principalmente de estudos realizados na Região Nordeste pelas universidades, pela Embrapa e Codevasf, totalizando 786 curvas de retenção, que foram divididas em dois conjuntos de dados: 85 %, para desenvolvimento das PTFs, e 15 %, para teste e validação, considerados como dados independentes. Além do desenvolvimento das PTFs de caráter geral para todos os solos conjuntamente, desenvolveram-se PTFs específicas para as classes Argissolos, Latossolos, Neossolos e Planossolos, utilizando técnicas de regressão múltipla, com o uso do procedimento stepwise (forward e backward), para selecionar os melhores preditores. Dois tipos de PTFs foram desenvolvidos: o primeiro inclui todos os preditores, densidade do solo, teores de areia, silte, argila e de matéria orgânica, e o segundo, apenas com os teores de areia, silte e argila. A avaliação da adequação das PTFs foi com base no coeficiente de correlação (R) e índice de Willmott (d). Para avaliar as PTFs, para o teor de água em potenciais matriciais específicos, utilizou-se a raiz do erro médio quadrado (RMSE). A predição da curva de retenção por PTF é relativamente fraca, exceto para o teor de água residual. A inclusão do teor de matéria orgânica como preditor da PTF melhora a predição do parâmetro (alfa) de van Genuchten. Não houve melhora de desempenho das PTFs específicas por classe de solo, em comparação com uma PTF geral. Exceto no caso do teor de água do solo saturado, estimado pela distribuição granulométrica, modelos para a predição do teor de água em potenciais matriciais específicos são bons. Predições do teor de água em potenciais matriciais mais negativos do que -0,6 m, usando uma PTF contendo a distribuição granulométrica, são somente um pouco inferiores àquelas obtidas por PTFs, que incluem densidade do solo e teor de matéria orgânica

Risk-sensitive events during laparoscopic cholecystectomy: the influence of the integrated operating room and a preoperative checklist tool

Background - Awareness of the relative high rate of adverse events in laparoscopic surgery created a need to safeguard quality and safety of performance better. Technological innovations, such as integrated operating room (OR) systems and checklists, have the potential to improve patient safety, OR efficiency, and surgical outcomes. This study was designed to investigate the influence of the integrated OR system and Pro/cheQ, a digital checklist tool, on the number and type of equipment- and instrument-related risk-sensitive events (RSE) during laparoscopic cholecystectomies. Methods - Forty-five laparoscopic cholecystectomies were analyzed on the number and type of RSE; 15 procedures were observed in the cart-based OR setting, 15 in an integrated OR setting, and 15 in the integrated OR setting while using Pro/cheQ. Results - In the cart-based OR setting and the integrated OR setting, at least one event occurred in 87% of the procedures, which was reduced to 47% in the integrated OR setting when using Pro/cheQ. During 45 procedures a total of 57 RSE was observed—most were caused by equipment that was not switched on or with the wrong settings. In the integrated OR while using Pro/cheQ the number of RSE was reduced by 65%. Conclusions - Using both an integrated OR and Pro/cheQ has a stronger reducing effect on the number of RSE than using an integrated OR alone. The Pro/cheQ tool supported the optimal workflow in a natural way and raised the general safety awareness amongst all members of the surgical team. For tools such as integrated OR systems and checklists to succeed it is pivotal not to underestimate the value of the implementation process. To further improve safety and quality of surgery, a multifaceted approach should be followed, focusing on the performance and competence of the surgical team as a whole.Industrial DesignIndustrial Design Engineerin

Coronary Revascularization Induces a Shift From Cardiac Toward Noncardiac Mortality Without Improving Survival in Vascular Surgery Patient

OBJECTIVE: Although evidence has shown that ischemic heart disease (IHD) in vascular surgery patients has a negative impact on the prognosis after surgery, it is unclear whether directed treatment of IHD may influence cause-specific and overall mortality. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic implication of coronary revascularization (CR) on overall and cause-specific mortality in vascular surgery patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysm, carotid artery stenosis, or peripheral artery disease in a university hospital in The Netherlands between January 2003 and December 2011 were retrospectively included. Survival estimates were obtained by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1104 patients were included. Adjusted survival analyses showed that IHD significantly increased the risk of overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.87) and cardiovascular death (HR, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.76). Compared with those without CR, patients previously undergoing CR had similar overall mortality (HR, 1.38 vs 1.62; P = .274) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.83 vs 2.02; P = .656). Nonrevascularized IHD patients were more likely to die of IHD (6.9% vs 35.7%), whereas revascularized IHD patients more frequently died of cardiovascular causes unrelated to IHD (39.1% vs 64.3%; P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the significance of IHD for postoperative survival of vascular surgery patients. CR was associated with lower IHD-related death rates. However, it failed to provide an overall survival benefit because of an increased rate of cardiovascular mortality unrelated to IHD. Intensification of secondary prevention regimens may be required to prevent this shift toward non-IHD-related death and thereby improve life expectancy

Seascape Configuration and Fine-Scale Habitat Complexity Shape Parrotfish Distribution and Function across a Coral Reef Lagoon

Structural complexity spanning fine to broad spatial scales can influence the distribution and activity of key organisms within marine ecosystems. However, the relative importance of hard (e.g., corals) and/or soft (e.g., macroalgae) structural complexity for marine organisms is often unclear. This study shows how both broad-scale (seascape configuration of coral structure) and fine-scale habitat complexity (structure height, number of holes, and presence of macroalgae) can influence the abundance and spatial ecology of reef fish. Underwater visual census of fish, surveys of habitats, remote underwater videos, and behavioral observations by following individual fish were used to quantify fine-scale habitat characteristics (e.g., complexity, coral structure height, macroalgae presence) and the abundance, size structure, and behavior (rates of herbivory, tortuosity ratios and total distance travelled) of abundant parrotfish. Both seascape configuration and macroalgae influenced the patterns of fish abundance and rates of herbivory. However, these relationships varied with trophic groups and ontogenetic stages. Abundance of adult and intermediate-phase parrotfishes was positively influenced by densely aggregated coral structures, whereas juvenile abundance was positively influenced by the presence of macroalgae. Foraging path and bite rates of an abundant parrotfish, Chlorurus spilurus, were not influenced by coral structure configuration or height, but the presence of macroalgae increased the bite rates of all juvenile parrotfish. Our results suggest that a combination of seascape configuration, fine-scale habitat complexity, and microhabitat selectivity influence reef fish community structure and foraging behavior, thus altering herbivory. However, these relationships can differ among functional groups of fish and life-history stages. Information on these fish-habitat interactions is critical for identifying habitats that facilitate ecological functions and ensures the successful management and conservation of essential habitats