Effects of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins

This study quantifies the uncertainty in discharge calculations caused by uncertainty in precipitation input for 294 river basins worldwide. Seven global gridded precipitation datasets are compared at river basin scale in terms of mean annual and seasonal precipitation. The representation of seasonality is similar in all datasets, but the uncertainty in mean annual precipitation is large, especially in mountainous, arctic, and small basins. The average precipitation uncertainty in a basin is 30%, but there are strong differences between basins. The effect of this precipitation uncertainty on mean annual and seasonal discharge was assessed using the uncalibrated dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL), yielding even larger uncertainties in discharge (average 90%). For 95 basins (out of 213 basins for which measurements were available) calibration of model parameters is problematic because the observed discharge falls within the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. A method is presented to account for precipitation uncertainty in discharge simulations

Thermal diffractive corrections to Casimir energies

We study the interplay of thermal and diffractive effects in Casimir energies. We consider plates with edges, oriented either parallel or perpendicular to each other, as well as a single plate with a slit. We compute the Casimir energy at finite temperature using a formalism in which the diffractive effects are encoded in a lower dimensional non-local field theory that lives in the gap between the plates. The formalism allows for a clean separation between direct or geometric effects and diffractive effects, and makes an analytic derivation of the temperature dependence of the free energy possible. At low temperatures, with Dirichlet boundary conditions on the plates, we find that diffractive effects make a correction to the free energy which scales as T^6 for perpendicular plates, as T^4 for slits, and as T^4 log T for parallel plates.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures, LaTeX. v2: minor typos fixed, version to appear in PR

Holographic Construction of Excited CFT States

We present a systematic construction of bulk solutions that are dual to CFT excited states. The bulk solution is constructed perturbatively in bulk fields. The linearised solution is universal and depends only on the conformal dimension of the primary operator that is associated with the state via the operator-state correspondence, while higher order terms depend on detailed properties of the operator, such as its OPE with itself and generally involve many bulk fields. We illustrate the discussion with the holographic construction of the universal part of the solution for states of two dimensional CFTs, either on $R \times S^1$ or on $R^{1,1}$. We compute the 1-point function both in the CFT and in the bulk, finding exact agreement. We comment on the relation with other reconstruction approaches.Comment: 26 pages, 4 figures, v2: comments adde

Effects of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins

This study quantifies the uncertainty in discharge calculations caused by uncertainty in precipitation input for 294 river basins worldwide. Seven global gridded precipitation datasets are compared at river basin scale in terms of mean annual and seasonal precipitation. The representation of seasonality is similar in all datasets, but the uncertainty in mean annual precipitation is large, especially in mountainous, arctic, and small basins. The average precipitation uncertainty in a basin is 30%, but there are strong differences between basins. The effect of this precipitation uncertainty on mean annual and seasonal discharge was assessed using the uncalibrated dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL), yielding even larger uncertainties in discharge (average 90%). For 95 basins (out of 213 basins for which measurements were available) calibration of model parameters is problematic because the observed discharge falls within the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. A method is presented to account for precipitation uncertainty in discharge simulations

Holographic representation of local bulk operators

The Lorentzian AdS/CFT correspondence implies a map between local operators in supergravity and non-local operators in the CFT. By explicit computation we construct CFT operators which are dual to local bulk fields in the semiclassical limit. The computation is done for general dimension in global, Poincare and Rindler coordinates. We find that the CFT operators can be taken to have compact support in a region of the complexified boundary whose size is set by the bulk radial position. We show that at finite N the number of independent commuting operators localized within a bulk volume saturates the holographic bound.Comment: 36 pages, LaTeX, 4 eps figure

Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments

As the water requirement for food production and other human needs grows, quantification of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) is necessary to assess the amount of water needed to sustain freshwater ecosystems. EFRs are the result of the quantification of water necessary to sustain the riverine ecosystem, which is calculated from the mean of an environmental flow (EF) method. In this study, five EF methods for calculating EFRs were compared with 11 case studies of locally assessed EFRs. We used three existing methods (Smakhtin, Tennant, and Tessmann) and two newly developed methods (the variable monthly flow method (VMF) and the Q90-Q50 method). All methods were compared globally and validated at local scales while mimicking the natural flow regime. The VMF and the Tessmann methods use algorithms to classify the flow regime into high, intermediate, and low-flow months and they take into account intra-annual variability by allocating EFRs with a percentage of mean monthly flow (MMF). The Q90-Q50 method allocates annual flow quantiles (Q90 and Q50) depending on the flow season. The results showed that, on average, 37% of annual discharge was required to sustain environmental flow requirement. More water is needed for environmental flows during low-flow periods (46-71% of average low-flows) compared to high-flow periods (17-45% of average high-flows). Environmental flow requirements estimates from the Tennant, Q90-Q50, and Smakhtin methods were higher than the locally calculated EFRs for river systems with relatively stable flows and were lower than the locally calculated EFRs for rivers with variable flows. The VMF and Tessmann methods showed the highest correlation with the locally calculated EFRs (R2 = 0.91). The main difference between the Tessmann and VMF methods is that the Tessmann method allocates all water to EFRs in low-flow periods while the VMF method allocates 60% of the flow in low-flow periods. Thus, other water sectors such as irrigation can withdraw up to 40% of the flow during the low-flow season and freshwater ecosystems can still be kept in reasonable ecological condition. The global applicability of the five methods was tested using the global vegetation and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL) hydrological model. The calculated global annual EFRs for fair ecological conditions represent between 25 and 46% of mean annual flow (MAF). Variable flow regimes, such as the Nile, have lower EFRs (ranging from 12 to 48% of MAF) than stable tropical regimes such as the Amazon (which has EFRs ranging from 30 to 67% of MAF)

Systematic study of the SO(10) symmetry breaking vacua in the matrix model for type IIB superstrings

We study the properties of the space-time that emerges dynamically from the matrix model for type IIB superstrings in ten dimensions. We calculate the free energy and the extent of space-time using the Gaussian expansion method up to the third order. Unlike previous works, we study the SO(d) symmetric vacua with all possible values of d within the range $2 \le d \le 7$, and observe clear indication of plateaus in the parameter space of the Gaussian action, which is crucial for the results to be reliable. The obtained results indeed exhibit systematic dependence on d, which turns out to be surprisingly similar to what was observed recently in an analogous work on the six-dimensional version of the model. In particular, we find the following properties: i) the extent in the shrunken directions is given by a constant, which does not depend on d; ii) the ten-dimensional volume of the Euclidean space-time is given by a constant, which does not depend on d except for d = 2; iii) The free energy takes the minimum value at d = 3. Intuitive understanding of these results is given by using the low-energy effective theory and some Monte Carlo results.Comment: 33 pages, 10 figures; minor corrections, reference added. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1007.088

Conclusions and recommendations

Work will continue. The Water-and-Climate ball is rolling and there is a strong commitment to keep it going. This wrapup chapter contains a ten-point action agenda for countries, river basin authorities, regional organisations and the international development community. Contents: 6.1 Undeniable evidence; 6.2 Challenges for water managers; 6.3 Stakeholder partnerships; 6.4 Assessing vulnerability to climate extremes; 6.5 Capacity building and financial support; 6.6 A Water and Climate Alliance; 6.7 Recommendations for Actio