Moderate Growth Time Series for Dynamic Combinatorics Modelisation

Here, we present a family of time series with a simple growth constraint. This family can be the basis of a model to apply to emerging computation in business and micro-economy where global functions can be expressed from local rules. We explicit a double statistics on these series which allows to establish a one-to-one correspondence between three other ballot-like strunctures

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the urban population of Qatar: An analysis of antibody testing on a sample of 112,941 individuals

ABSTRACTBackgroundQatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Our first objective was to assess the proportion of the urban population that has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, by measuring the prevalence of detectable antibodies. Our second objective was to identify predictors for infection and for having higher antibody titers.MethodsResidual blood specimens from individuals receiving routine and other clinical care between May 12-September 9, 2020 were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Associations with seropositivity and higher antibody titers were identified through regression analyses. Probability weights were applied in deriving the epidemiological measures.ResultsWe tested 112,941 individuals (∼10% of Qatar’s urban population), of whom 51.6% were men and 66.0% were 20-49 years of age. Seropositivity was 13.3% (95% CI: 13.1-13.6%) and was significantly associated with sex, age, nationality, clinical-care type, and testing date. The proportion with higher antibody titers varied by age, nationality, clinical-care type, and testing date. There was a strong correlation between higher antibody titers and seroprevalence in each nationality, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.47-0.96), suggesting that higher antibody titers may indicate repeated exposure to the virus. The percentage of antibody-positive persons with prior PCR-confirmed diagnosis was 47.1% (95% CI: 46.1-48.2%), severity rate was 3.9% (95% CI: 3.7-4.2%), criticality rate was 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1-1.4%), and fatality rate was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.2-0.3%).ConclusionsFewer than two in every 10 individuals in Qatar’s urban population had detectable antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 between May 12-September 9, 2020, suggesting that this population is still far from the herd immunity threshold and at risk from a subsequent epidemic wave.</jats:sec

Combining Gram stain and 16S qPCR improved diagnostic accuracy for suspected pneumonia and could become a new metric in the rapid diagnosis of lower respiratory tract infections

Introduction. The frequency of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in hospitals and the risk of delaying effective treatment result in the culture of respiratory secretions for nearly all patients with suspected pneumonia. Culture delays contribute to over prescribing and use of broader spectrum antibiotics.Gap statement. The need for improved rapid diagnostics for early assessment of suspected hospital pneumonia. Aim. To validate a new metric, enhanced Gram stain (EGS), to provide a rapid diagnostic test of high diagnostic accuracy that could be assessed in clinical trials of the use of antibiotics in suspected pneumonia.Methodology. Ninety-two residual lower respiratory samples previously tested by culture and Gram stain were re-tested by 16S ribosomal DNA real-time polymerase chain reaction (16S qPCR) and reported as a combined metric with Gram stain termed EGS. The EGS was assessed for diagnostic accuracy, standard performance measurements and correlation against culture. For samples with discordance between culture and EGS, 16S ribosomal DNA whole operon sequencing (16S rDNA WOS) was used for test resolution. An amended EGS (A-EGS was reassessed against culture. Results. Gram stain, 16S qPCR, EGS and A-EGS had respective diagnostic accuracies of 77.01 %, 82.76 %, 84.04 % and 94.19 %. The same platforms had respective correlation with culture of r = 0.67, r = 0.71, r = 0.81 and r = 0.89. EGS had the highest negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.18 % (81.99 %–97.62 %). Adding an 16S qPCR result is achievable in most routine laboratories and, combined with Gram stain, could improve early decision-making in patients with suspected hospital pneumonia. Conclusion. EGS could improve early decision-making in patients with suspected hospital pneumonia and could be assessed in clinical trials. The 16S rDNA WOS results in the A-EGS also supported the use of pathogen genomic sequencing in early decision making of suspected pneumonia