Innovative inorganic synthesis

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Real Estate Asset Allocations and International Real Estate Markets

In this paper we examine the institutional real estate ownership patterns of life insurance companies for 10 countries over the period 1986-96. The countries included are ustralia, Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that most institutional investors worldwide have shifted out of real estate assets and into stocks and bonds over the last decade. We then investigate whether this behavior is the result of changing investor perceptions or a shift in stock market apitalization. To test this hypothesis, the paper derives measures of ex ante real estate returns following previous empirical work in finance. The results indicate that only a small proportion of what is driving institutional investors' real estate portfolio decisions is actually explained by changing investor perceptions and lagged unexpected excess returns.Institutions, International Investment, Portfolio Diversification

What does Newcomb's paradox teach us?

In Newcomb's paradox you choose to receive either the contents of a particular closed box, or the contents of both that closed box and another one. Before you choose, a prediction algorithm deduces your choice, and fills the two boxes based on that deduction. Newcomb's paradox is that game theory appears to provide two conflicting recommendations for what choice you should make in this scenario. We analyze Newcomb's paradox using a recent extension of game theory in which the players set conditional probability distributions in a Bayes net. We show that the two game theory recommendations in Newcomb's scenario have different presumptions for what Bayes net relates your choice and the algorithm's prediction. We resolve the paradox by proving that these two Bayes nets are incompatible. We also show that the accuracy of the algorithm's prediction, the focus of much previous work, is irrelevant. In addition we show that Newcomb's scenario only provides a contradiction between game theory's expected utility and dominance principles if one is sloppy in specifying the underlying Bayes net. We also show that Newcomb's paradox is time-reversal invariant; both the paradox and its resolution are unchanged if the algorithm makes its `prediction' after you make your choice rather than before

Degeneration of Dynamical Degrees in Families of Maps

The dynamical degree of a dominant rational map $f:\mathbb{P}^N\rightarrow\mathbb{P}^N$ is the quantity $\delta(f):=\lim(\text{deg} f^n)^{1/n}$. We study the variation of dynamical degrees in 1-parameter families of maps $f_T$. We make a conjecture and ask two questions concerning, respectively, the set of $t$ such that: (1) $\delta(f_t)\le\delta(f_T)-\epsilon$; (2) $\delta(f_t)<\delta(f_T)$; (3) $\delta(f_t)<\delta(f_T)$ and $\delta(g_t)<\delta(g_T)$ for "independent" families of maps. We give a sufficient condition for our conjecture to hold and prove that it is true for monomial maps. We describe non-trivial families of maps for which our questions have affirmative and negative answers.Comment: 18 pages. This is an expanded version of the article publishd in Acta Arithmetica. It contains a corrected statement and full proof of Propostion 11(c

Music and dance as a coalition signaling system

Evidence suggests that humans have neurological specializations for music processing, but a compelling adaptationist account of music and dance is lacking. The sexual selection hypothesis cannot easily account for the widespread performance of music and dance in groups (especially synchronized performances), and the social bonding hypothesis has severe theoretical difficulties. Humans are unique among the primates in their ability to form cooperative alliances between groups in the absence of consanguineal ties. We propose that this unique form of social organization is predicated on music and dance. Music and dance may have evolved as a coalition signaling system that could, among other things, credibly communicate coalition quality, thus permitting meaningful cooperative relationships between groups. This capability may have evolved from coordinated territorial defense signals that are common in many social species, including chimpanzees. We present a study in which manipulation of music synchrony significantly altered subjects’ perceptions of music quality, and in which subjects’ perceptions of music quality were correlated with their perceptions of coalition quality, supporting our hypothesis. Our hypothesis also has implications for the evolution of psychological mechanisms underlying cultural production in other domains such as food preparation, clothing and body decoration, storytelling and ritual, and tools and other artifacts

Optimizing outcomes in ADHD treatment: From clinical targets to novel delivery systems

Our knowledge and understanding of the underlying neurobiology and symptomatic expression of ADHD has advanced dramatically over the past decade. Associated with these advances has been a similar explosion of new treatment options to individualize treatment for our patients.This article will:∙review strategies to measure ADHD symptoms and functional difficulties while seeking to achieve full symptomatic remission throughout the day∙summarize recent findings regarding the management and prioritization of ADHD and comorbid conditions and∙discuss the various pharmacologic treatment options with a focus on recently developed molecules and novel delivery systems</jats:p

Adolescent Triangulation into Parental Conflicts: Longitudinal Implications for Appraisals and Adolescent-Parent Relations

Although triangulation into parental conflict is a risk factor for child and adolescent maladjustment, little is known about how triangulation affects adolescents’ functioning or the factors that lead children to be drawn into parental disagreements. This prospective study examined the relations between triangulation, appraisals of conflict, and parent-child relations in a sample of 171 adolescents, ages 14 to 19 years, at 2 time points. Cross-lagged path analyses revealed that youths who experienced greater threat in response to conflict reported increases in triangulation over time, and triangulation was associated with increased self-blame and diminished parent-adolescent relations. This study highlights links between intrapersonal, dyadic, and triadic processes and suggests a mechanism by which interparental discord spills over into parent-adolescent relations

Major Outcomes in Atrial Fibrillation Patients with One Risk Factor: Impact of Time in Therapeutic Range

BACKGROUND: The benefits and harms of oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy in patients with only one stroke risk factor (i.e. CHA2DS2-VASc= 1 in males, or 2 in females) has been subject of debate. METHODS: We analysed all patients with only one stroke risk factor from the merged datasets of SPORTIF III and V trials. Anticoagulation control was defined according to time in therapeutic range (TTR). RESULTS: Of the original trial cohort, 1,097 patients had only one stroke risk factor. Stroke/systemic thromboembolic event had an incidence of 0.9 per 100 patient-years, with an incidence of 1.6 per 100 patient-years for all-cause death and 2.3%/patient-years for the composite outcome of stroke/systemic thromboembolic event/all-cause death. There were no significant differences in the risk for stroke/systemic thromboembolic event between sexes, nor between the different stroke risk factors amongst these atrial fibrillation patients with only one stroke risk factor. Cox regression analysis in patients treated with warfarin only found TTR to be inversely associated with stroke/systemic thromboembolic event (p=0.034) and all-cause death (p=0.015). Chronic heart failure was significantly associated with the outcome of all-cause death (p=0.0019) and the composite outcome of stroke/systemic thromboembolic event/all-cause death (p=0.021). There was a significant inverse linear association between TTR and the cumulative risk for both stroke/systemic thromboembolic event and all-cause death (both p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In atrial fibrillation patients with only one additional stroke risk factor (i.e. CHA2DS2-VASc= 1 in males or 2 in females), rates of major adverse events (stroke/systemic thromboembolic event, mortality) were high, despite anticoagulation. TTR in warfarin-treated patients was inversely associated with the occurrence of both stroke/systemic thromboembolic event and all-cause death

Emotional, Cognitive, and Family Systems Mediators of Children\u27s Adjustment to Interparental Conflict

Emotional, cognitive, and family systems processes have been identified as mediators of the association between interparental conflict and children\u27s adjustment. However, little is known about how they function in relation to one another because they have not all been assessed in the same study. This investigation examined the relations among children\u27s exposure to parental conflict, their appraisals of threat and blame, their emotional reaction, and triangulation into parental disagreements. One hundred fifty ethnically diverse 8- to 12-year-old children and both of their parents participated in the study. Comparisons of 3 models proposing different relations among these processes indicated that they function as parallel and independent mediators of children\u27s adjustment. Specifically, children\u27s self-blaming attributions and emotional distress were uniquely associated with both internalizing and externalizing problems, whereas perceived threat uniquely predicted internalizing problems and triangulation uniquely predicted externalizing problems