Sequential Data-Adaptive Bandwidth Selection by Cross-Validation for Nonparametric Prediction

We consider the problem of bandwidth selection by cross-validation from a sequential point of view in a nonparametric regression model. Having in mind that in applications one often aims at estimation, prediction and change detection simultaneously, we investigate that approach for sequential kernel smoothers in order to base these tasks on a single statistic. We provide uniform weak laws of large numbers and weak consistency results for the cross-validated bandwidth. Extensions to weakly dependent error terms are discussed as well. The errors may be {\alpha}-mixing or L2-near epoch dependent, which guarantees that the uniform convergence of the cross validation sum and the consistency of the cross-validated bandwidth hold true for a large class of time series. The method is illustrated by analyzing photovoltaic data.Comment: 26 page

Stories of Critical Moments Contributing to the Development of Applied Sport Psychology Practitioners

This study explored the stories of critical moments experienced by applied sport psychology practitioners. The 13 recruited practitioners (eight male and five female) were in different stages of their development (trainee, neophyte, and experienced) and were asked to tell one story about a critical moment that significantly contributed to their development as applied practitioners. Narrative analysis was used to explore the stories of critical moments. Four distinct narrative structures were evident; Re-birth, Rags to Riches, Tragedy, and The Quest. There was one consistent narrative feature that supported these plots: critical moments contribute towards an alignment between a practitioner’s beliefs and behaviour, which supports the development of a congruent philosophy of practice and the environment they choose to work within. We recommend future research, such as the use of narrative analysis to explore alternative narrative structures and the investigation of successful and unsuccessful consultancy experiences

Multiscale mobility networks and the large scale spreading of infectious diseases

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In order to study the interplay between small-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of a global epidemic we i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms; ii) integrate in a worldwide structured metapopulation epidemic model a time-scale separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short range mobility increases however the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multi-scale framework.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

The Rocky Road to Individuation: Sport Psychologists’ Perspectives on Professional Development

Objective: The purpose of this research was to gain an insight into UK trainee sport psychologists’ (TSP) and experienced sport psychologists’ (ESP) perspectives of their professional development by drawing on a counsellor development framework (Rønnestad & Skovholt, 2012). Design: A longitudinal qualitative design using semi-structured interviews (Study I) and a multi-interview qualitative design (Study II). Methods: Nine UK TSPs enrolled on the British Psychological Society (BPS), Stage 2 Qualification in Sport and Exercise Psychology (QSEP) participated in Study I. TSPs participated in three individual interviews regarding their professional development during the first 2 years of training. Five UK BPS-chartered ESPs with a minimum of 15 years consulting experience participated in Study II. ESPs took part in two separate interviews regarding their professional development. Study I themes were developed using an abductive thematic content analysis to interpret TSPs’ perspectives about their development. We examined Study II data through the lens of the themes generated from Study I. Results: Participants’ development reflected factors that underlie the process of individuation, such as personal interactions with peers and a broadening of influences outside of training (e.g., personal therapy, life experiences). Participants perceived professional development in sport psychology as intermittent and cyclical due to their varied work responsibilities. Conclusion: Individuation represents a dynamic ongoing process where practitioners attempt to understand better, who they are and the influence they have on service delivery. Individuation can be a deliberate process that can assist practitioners in realising professional satisfaction and meaning

Understanding your water test report (1995)

"New 7/93, Reprinted 4/95/5M.""Water Quality.""Focus area : drinking water.""Published by University Extension. University of Missouri-Columbia.""Reviewed and adapted for Missouri by Wanda Eubank, Jerry Carpenter, Bev Maltsberger, University of Missouri-Columbia, and Nix Anderson, Missouri Department of Health, from Understanding Your Water Test Report by Michael H. Bradshaw, Health and Safety Extension Specialist and G. Morgan Powell, Natural Resource Engineer, Kansas State University.

On the Computational Complexity of Measuring Global Stability of Banking Networks

Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current and past decade has shown that one important cause of instability in global markets is the so-called financial contagion, namely the spreading of instabilities or failures of individual components of the network to other, perhaps healthier, components. This leads to a natural question of whether the regulatory authorities could have predicted and perhaps mitigated the current economic crisis by effective computations of some stability measure of the banking networks. Motivated by such observations, we consider the problem of defining and evaluating stabilities of both homogeneous and heterogeneous banking networks against propagation of synchronous idiosyncratic shocks given to a subset of banks. We formalize the homogeneous banking network model of Nier et al. and its corresponding heterogeneous version, formalize the synchronous shock propagation procedures, define two appropriate stability measures and investigate the computational complexities of evaluating these measures for various network topologies and parameters of interest. Our results and proofs also shed some light on the properties of topologies and parameters of the network that may lead to higher or lower stabilities.Comment: to appear in Algorithmic

Singular Value Decomposition of Operators on Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) play an important role in many statistics and machine learning applications ranging from support vector machines to Gaussian processes and kernel embeddings of distributions. Operators acting on such spaces are, for instance, required to embed conditional probability distributions in order to implement the kernel Bayes rule and build sequential data models. It was recently shown that transfer operators such as the Perron-Frobenius or Koopman operator can also be approximated in a similar fashion using covariance and cross-covariance operators and that eigenfunctions of these operators can be obtained by solving associated matrix eigenvalue problems. The goal of this paper is to provide a solid functional analytic foundation for the eigenvalue decomposition of RKHS operators and to extend the approach to the singular value decomposition. The results are illustrated with simple guiding examples

Don't bleach chaotic data

A common first step in time series signal analysis involves digitally filtering the data to remove linear correlations. The residual data is spectrally white (it is ``bleached''), but in principle retains the nonlinear structure of the original time series. It is well known that simple linear autocorrelation can give rise to spurious results in algorithms for estimating nonlinear invariants, such as fractal dimension and Lyapunov exponents. In theory, bleached data avoids these pitfalls. But in practice, bleaching obscures the underlying deterministic structure of a low-dimensional chaotic process. This appears to be a property of the chaos itself, since nonchaotic data are not similarly affected. The adverse effects of bleaching are demonstrated in a series of numerical experiments on known chaotic data. Some theoretical aspects are also discussed.Comment: 12 dense pages (82K) of ordinary LaTeX; uses macro psfig.tex for inclusion of figures in text; figures are uufile'd into a single file of size 306K; the final dvips'd postscript file is about 1.3mb Replaced 9/30/93 to incorporate final changes in the proofs and to make the LaTeX more portable; the paper will appear in CHAOS 4 (Dec, 1993

Toroidal plasma rotation in the PLT tokamak with neutral-beam injection

Toroidal plasma rotation in the Princeton Large Torus, PLT, has been measured for various plasma and neutral beam injection conditions. Measurements of the plasma rotational velocities were made from Doppler shifts of appropriate spectral lines and include data from both hydrogen and deuterium beams and co- and counter-injection at several electron densities. Without injection, a small but consistent toroidal rotation exists in a direction opposite to the plasma current (counter-direction) in the plasma center but parallel to the current (co-direction) in the plasma periphery. Using these measured velocities and the plasma density and temperature gradients, radial electron fields can be determined from theory, giving E/sub r / approx. = 40 V/cm near the plasma center and E/sub r/ approx. = 10 V/cm near the plasma edge. Insertion of a local, 2.5 percent magnetic well produced no observable effect on the beam driven rotation. Modeling of the time evolution and radial distribution of the rotation allows one to deduce an effective viscosity of the order of (1 to 5) x 10/sup 4/ cm/sup 2//sec