How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.This work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support

Adapting agriculture to climate change

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists

Coupling Between Magnetic and Transport Properties in Magnetic Layered Material Mn2-xZnxSb

We synthesized single crystals for Mn2-xZnxSb and studied their magnetic and electronic transport properties. This material system displays rich magnetic phase tunable with temperature and Zn composition. In addition, two groups of distinct magnetic and electronic properties, separated by a critical Zn composition of x = 0.6, are discovered. The Zn-less samples are metallic and characterized by a resistivity jump at the magnetic ordering temperature, while the Zn-rich samples lose metallicity and show a metal-to-insulator transition-like feature tunable by magnetic field. Our findings establish Mn2-xZnxSb as a promising material platform that offers opportunities to study how the coupling of spin, charge, and lattice degrees of freedom governs interesting transport properties in 2D magnets, which is currently a topic of broad interest.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, Figures are at the end of the manuscrip

Case Report Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in a Branchial Cleft Cyst without a Thyroid Primary: Navigating a Diagnostic Dilemma

We report a rare case of papillary thyroid carcinoma incidentally found within a branchial cleft cyst. Only four other cases have been described in the literature. A total thyroidectomy and selective neck dissection was performed, and no evidence of occult primary disease was found after review of fine sections. Branchial cleft cysts are the most common lateral neck masses. Ectopic thyroid tissue within a branchial cleft cyst is an unusual phenomenon, and papillary thyroid carcinoma arising from this tissue is extremely rare. Clinicians are left with a diagnostic dilemma when presented with thyroid tissue neoplasm within a neck cyst in the absence of a thyroid primary-is this a case of metastatic disease with a missed primary or rather carcinoma arising in ectopic thyroid tissue? A thorough discussion of the etiologies of these lateral neck masses is reviewed including the embryogenesis of thyroid tissue in a branchial cleft cyst. The prognosis of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma in lateral neck cysts without a primary site identified appears to be good following excision of the cyst and total thyroidectomy. Other management recommendations regarding these unique lateral neck malignancies are also presented

Laryngeal Reinnervation Using Ansa Cervicalis for Thyroid Surgery-Related Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis: A Long-Term Outcome Analysis of 237 Cases

To evaluate the long-term efficacy of delayed laryngeal reinnervation using the main branch of the ansa cervicalis in treatment of unilateral vocal fold paralysis (UVFP) caused by thyroid surgery.UVFP remains a serious complication of thyroid surgery. Up to now, a completely satisfactory surgical treatment of UVFP has been elusive.From Jan. 1996 to Jan. 2008, a total of 237 UVFP patients who underwent ansa cervicalis main branch-to-recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) anastomosis were enrolled as UVFP group; another 237 age- and gender-matched normal subjects served as control group. Videostroboscopy, vocal function assessment (acoustic analysis, perceptual evaluation and maximum phonation time), and electromyography were performed preoperatively and postoperatively. The mean follow-up period was 5.2±2.7 years, ranging from 2 to 12 years.>0.05, respectively). Postoperative laryngeal electromyography confirmed successful reinnervation of laryngeal muscle.Delayed laryngeal reinnervation with the main branch of ansa cervicalis is a feasible and effective approach for treatment of thyroid surgery-related UVFP; it can restore the physiological laryngeal phonatory function to the normal or a nearly normal voice quality

The FLASH pilot survey: an HI absorption search against MRC 1-Jy radio sources

We report an ASKAP search for associated HI 21-cm absorption against bright radio sources from the Molonglo Reference Catalogue (MRC) 1-Jy sample. The search uses pilot survey data from the ASKAP First Large Absorption Survey in \hi (FLASH) covering the redshift range $0.42 < z < 1.00$. From a sample of 62 MRC 1-Jy radio galaxies and quasars in this redshift range we report three new detections of associated HI 21-cm absorption, yielding an overall detection fraction of $1.8\%^{+4.0\%}_{-1.5\%}$. The detected systems comprise two radio galaxies (MRC 2216$-$281 at $z=0.657$ and MRC 0531$-$237 at $z=0.851$) and one quasar (MRC 2156$-$245 at $z=0.862$). The MRC 0531$-$237 absorption system is the strongest found to date, with a velocity integrated optical depth of $\rm 143.8 \pm 0.4 \ km \ s^{-1}$. All three objects with detected HI 21-cm absorption are peaked-spectrum or compact steep-spectrum (CSS) radio sources, classified based on our SED fits to the spectra. Two of them show strong interplanetary scintillation at 162 MHz, implying that the radio continuum source is smaller than 1 arcsec in size even at low frequencies. Among the class of peaked-spectrum and compact steep-spectrum radio sources, the HI detection fraction is $23\%^{+22\%}_{-13\%}$. This is consistent within $1\sigma$ with a detection fraction of $\approx 42\%^{+21\%}_{-15\%}$ in earlier reported GPS and CSS samples at intermediate redshifts ($0.4 < z < 1.0$). All three detections have a high 1.4 GHz radio luminosity, with MRC 0531$-$237 and MRC 2216$-$281 having the highest values in the sample, $\rm > 27.5 \ W \ Hz^{-1}$. The preponderance of extended radio sources in our sample could partially explain the overall low detection fraction, while the effects of a redshift evolution in gas properties and AGN UV luminosity on the neutral gas absorption still need to be investigated.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures and 7 Tables. Submitted to MNRA

Acceptance and Commitment Therapy for people living with motor neuron disease: an uncontrolled feasibility study

Background: Motor neuron disease (MND) is a fatal, progressive neurodegenerative disease that causes progressive weakening and wasting of limb, bulbar, thoracic and abdominal muscles. Clear evidence-based guidance on how psychological distress should be managed in people living with MND (plwMND) is lacking. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) is a form of psychological therapy that may be particularly suitable for this population. However, to the authors' knowledge, no study to date has evaluated ACT for plwMND. Consequently, the primary aim of this uncontrolled feasibility study was to examine the feasibility and acceptability of ACT for improving the psychological health of plwMND. Methods: PlwMND aged ≥ 18 years were recruited from 10 UK MND Care Centres/Clinics. Participants received up to 8 one-to-one ACT sessions, developed specifically for plwMND, plus usual care. Co-primary feasibility and acceptability outcomes were uptake (≥ 80% of the target sample [N = 28] recruited) and initial engagement with the intervention (≥ 70% completing ≥ 2 sessions). Secondary outcomes included measures of quality of life, anxiety, depression, disease-related functioning, health status and psychological flexibility in plwMND and quality of life and burden in caregivers. Outcomes were assessed at baseline and 6 months. Results: Both a priori indicators of success were met: 29 plwMND (104%) were recruited and 76% (22/29) attended ≥ 2 sessions. Attrition at 6-months was higher than anticipated (8/29, 28%), but only two dropouts were due to lack of acceptability of the intervention. Acceptability was further supported by good satisfaction with therapy and session attendance. Data were possibly suggestive of small improvements in anxiety and psychological quality of life from baseline to 6 months in plwMND, despite a small but expected deterioration in disease-related functioning and health status. Conclusions: There was good evidence of acceptability and feasibility. Limitations included the lack of a control group and small sample size, which complicate interpretation of findings. A fully powered RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ACT for plwMND is underway