Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August---which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80\% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015

Analyses of ACPL thermal/fluid conditioning system

Results of engineering analyses are reported. Initial computations were made using a modified control transfer function where the systems performance was characterized parametrically using an analytical model. The analytical model was revised to represent the latest expansion chamber fluid manifold design, and systems performance predictions were made. Parameters which were independently varied in these computations are listed. Systems predictions which were used to characterize performance are primarily transient computer plots comparing the deviation between average chamber temperature and the chamber temperature requirement. Additional computer plots were prepared. Results of parametric computations with the latest fluid manifold design are included

An analytical investigation of NO sub x control techniques for methanol fueled spark ignition engines

A thermokinetic SI engine simulation was used to study the effects of simple nitrogen oxide control techniques on performance and emissions of a methanol fueled engine. As part of this simulation, a ring crevice storage model was formulated to predict UBF emissions. The study included spark retard, two methods of compression ratio increase and EGR. The study concludes that use of EGR in high turbulence, high compression engines will both maximize power and thermal efficiency while minimizing harmful exhaust pollutants

Conservative buffering of approximate nonlinear constraints

In engineering design practice behavior is usually predicted based on some known nominal design. However, when the design is fabricated it will differ from the nominal design because of manufacturing tolerances. In order to generate nominal designs that will still satisfy behavior constraints in the presence of manufacturing tolerances, engineers resort to the use of safety factors, over and above those introduced to account for other uncertainties (e.g., in load conditions, material properties, analysis modeling). The accurate selection of the values of these manufacturing tolerances safety factors is dependent on the capability of the engineer to determine the sensitivity of the critical constraints to changes in the design variables. This process usually leads to overly conservative designs. The task of choosing safety factors is much more difficult in structural synthesis because: (1) it is not known which constraints will be active at the final design, (2) as the design changes during the synthesis process the sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variables also change, and (3) the imposition of the safety factors themselves may change the set of critical constraints. These difficulties can be overcome with the approximation concepts approach to structural synthesis by buffering the approximate constraints with quantities that are related to the design variable tolerances and the accurate sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variable. Designs generated by this approach tend to be feasible but not overly conservative

Is There a Relationship between the Density of Primordial Black Holes in a Galaxy and the Rate of Cosmological Gamma-Ray Bursts?

The rate of accretion of matter from a solar-type star onto a primordial black hole (PBH) that passes through it is calculated. The probability that a PBH is captured into an orbit around a star in a galaxy is found. The mean lifetime of the PBH in such an orbit and the rate of orbital captures of PBHs in the galaxy are calculated. It is shown that this rate does not depend on the mass of the PBH. This mechanism cannot make an appreciable contribution to the rate of observed gamma-ray bursts. The density of PBHs in the galaxy can reach a critical value - the density of the mass of dark matter in the galaxy.Comment: 7 page

Spectral Properties of the Generalized Spin-Fermion Models

In order to account for competition and interplay of localized and itinerant magnetic behaviour in correlated many body systems with complex spectra the various types of spin-fermion models have been considered in the context of the Irreducible Green's Functions (IGF) approach. Examples are generalized d-f model and Kondo-Heisenberg model. The calculations of the quasiparticle excitation spectra with damping for these models has been performed in the framework of the equation- of-motion method for two-time temperature Green's Functions within a non-perturbative approach. A unified scheme for the construction of Generalized Mean Fields (elastic scattering corrections) and self-energy (inelastic scattering) in terms of the Dyson equation has been generalized in order to include the presence of the two interacting subsystems of localized spins and itinerant electrons. A general procedure is given to obtain the quasiparticle damping in a self-consistent way. This approach gives the complete and compact description of quasiparticles and show the flexibility and richness of the generalized spin-fermion model concept.Comment: 37 pages, Late