Trade Liberalisation and Poverty : A Case Study on Ukraine

The Washington consensus reform package for developing countries initiated in the early 90’s, came to be a leading paradigm in the international community. One of the principle ideas, that trade liberalisation would alleviate people from poverty, has been pursued by many policy makers dealing with developing countries. This thesis estimates the effects on poverty induced by trade via three channels – economic growth, prices and employment & wages. As trade liberalisation implies distributional effects on the economy and general validity on how this effects poor has not been possible to establish - we have conducted a  qualitative case study in order to accumulate to the available research and reach understanding of the phenomena. Ukraine has been selected as case due to its recent trade liberalisations and proximity to attractive trade partners. With poverty as a focal point, the trade liberalisation and the international trade in Ukraine is examined together with a wide range of macro variables in order to trace down the effects trade has had on poverty. The result show that a factual trade liberalisation has occurred, both in terms of policy change and trade output, and that large productivity gains has been achieved. Although difficult to determine, increased competition and new technology plays a significant part in the increased productivity which most probably has been due partly to the increased trade. These productivity gains have expressed themselves as increased dynamics in the labour market - boosting real wages, and with it reducing a great share of poverty in Ukraine

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty : A Case Study on Ukraine

The Washington consensus reform package for developing countries initiated in the early 90’s, came to be a leading paradigm in the international community. One of the principle ideas, that trade liberalisation would alleviate people from poverty, has been pursued by many policy makers dealing with developing countries. This thesis estimates the effects on poverty induced by trade via three channels – economic growth, prices and employment & wages. As trade liberalisation implies distributional effects on the economy and general validity on how this effects poor has not been possible to establish - we have conducted a  qualitative case study in order to accumulate to the available research and reach understanding of the phenomena. Ukraine has been selected as case due to its recent trade liberalisations and proximity to attractive trade partners. With poverty as a focal point, the trade liberalisation and the international trade in Ukraine is examined together with a wide range of macro variables in order to trace down the effects trade has had on poverty. The result show that a factual trade liberalisation has occurred, both in terms of policy change and trade output, and that large productivity gains has been achieved. Although difficult to determine, increased competition and new technology plays a significant part in the increased productivity which most probably has been due partly to the increased trade. These productivity gains have expressed themselves as increased dynamics in the labour market - boosting real wages, and with it reducing a great share of poverty in Ukraine

History of Previous Fracture and Imminent Fracture Risk in Swedish Women Aged 55 to 90 Years Presenting With a Fragility Fracture

The term “fracture cascade” refers to the sequence of fragility fractures resulting from the increased fracture risk that occurs with aging and following fractures. Here, we evaluate the sequence of previous fractures in women aged 55 to 90 years presenting with a fragility fracture and subsequent (12 to 24 months) fracture incidence. In this retrospective, observational study, women aged 55 to 90 years with an “index” fragility fracture in 2013 were identified from Swedish national registries. A history of previous fractures (2001 to 2012) and osteoporosis treatment was used to characterize fracture cascade patterns. Cumulative incidence of new fractures within 12 to 24 months following the index fracture, based on index fracture type and age, were used to describe the risk of subsequent fractures. A total of 35,146 women with a mean age of 73.8 years were included (7180 hip, 2786 clinical vertebral, and 25,180 nonhip/nonvertebral [NHNV] index fractures); 38% of women with hip, 38% with clinical vertebral, and 25% with NHNV index fractures had one or more previous fractures. Across all index fracture types, the proportion of women with any previous fracture increased with age; 34% to 46% of index hip or clinical vertebral fractures in women ≥70 years were not their first fracture. Following any index fracture, cumulative incidence of a new fracture over 24 months was over 11% (index clinical vertebral 18%; index hip 14%). Osteoporosis treatment rates were low both in patients with (27%) and without (18%) a previous fracture. These descriptive data demonstrate that almost one-third of women aged 55 to 90 years suffering a new fracture have had a previous fragility fracture. Fracture location influences incidence and type of subsequent fracture during the 24 months following a fragility fracture, with clinical vertebral fractures carrying the greatest imminent fracture risk. These data highlight the clinical impact and need for early, effective treatment soon after any fragility fracture

Elimination of hepatitis C virus in Germany: modelling the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening strategies

Background: Chronic hepatitis C is a major public health burden. With new interferon-free direct-acting agents (showing sustained viral response rates of more than 98%), elimination of HCV seems feasible for the first time. However, as HCV infection often remains undiagnosed, screening is crucial for improving health outcomes of HCV-patients. Our aim was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of a nationwide screening strategy in Germany. Methods: We used a Markov cohort model to simulate disease progression and examine long-term population outcomes, HCV associated costs and cost-effectiveness of HCV screening. The model divides the total population into three subpopulations: general population (GEP), people who inject drugs (PWID) and HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM), with total infection numbers being highest in GEP, but new infections occurring only in PWIDs and MSM. The model compares four alternative screening strategies (no/basic/advanced/total screening) differing in participation and treatment rates. Results: Total number of HCV-infected patients declined from 275,000 in 2015 to between 125,000 (no screening) and 14,000 (total screening) in 2040. Similarly, lost quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were 320,000 QALYs lower, while costs were 2.4 billion EUR higher in total screening compared to no screening. While incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased sharply in GEP and MSM with more comprehensive strategies (30,000 EUR per QALY for total vs. advanced screening), ICER decreased in PWIDs (30 EUR per QALY for total vs. advanced screening). Conclusions: Screening is key to have an efficient decline of the HCV-infected population in Germany. Recommendation for an overall population screening is to screen the total PWID subpopulation, and to apply less comprehensive advanced screening for MSM and GEP

Cost-effectiveness of intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis based on FRAX(R) in Portugal

Cost-effective intervention thresholds (ITs) based on FRAX® were determined for Portugal. Assuming a willingness to pay (WTP) of €32,000 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment with generic alendronate is cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic fractures and hip above 8.8 and 2.5 %, respectively. The aim of the present study was to identify the 10-year probabilities of a major and hip osteoporotic fracture using FRAX® validated for Portugal, above which pharmacologic interventions become cost effective in the Portuguese context. A previously developed and validated state transition Markov cohort model was populated with epidemiologic, economic and quality-of-life fracture data from Portugal. Cost-effectiveness of FRAX®-based ITs was calculated for generic alendronate and proprietary zoledronic acid, denosumab and teriparatide were compared to “no intervention”, assuming a WTP of €32,000 (two times national Gross Domestic Product per capita) per QALYs. In the Portuguese epidemiological and economic context, treatment with generic alendronate was cost effective for men and women aged 50 years or more, with 10-year probabilities at or above 8.8 % for major osteoporotic fractures and 2.5 % for hip fractures. Cost-effective threshold 10-year probabilities for major osteoporotic and hip fractures were higher for zoledronic acid (20.4 and 10.1 %), denosumab (34.9 and 10.1 %) and teriparatide (77.8 and 62.6 %), respectively. A tool is provided to perform the calculation of cost-effective ITs for different medications, according to age group and diverse levels of WTP. Cost-effective ITs, for different medications, age groups and WTP, based on 10-year probabilities of major and hip fracture probabilities calculated with FRAX are provided

Differing impact of clinical factors on the risk of fracture in younger and older women in the general population and an osteoporosis clinic population

Summary: This study assesses the impact of risk factors for fracture in women aged 80+ and 60–79. The results suggest that risk assessment which fits younger women may not be suited for the 80+ strata as many common risk factors are less predictive in the older compared to the younger cohort. Purpose: This study assesses whether the impact of classical risk factors for fracture due to osteoporosis is different in women aged 80+ and women aged 60–79. Since most prior research on the contribution of risk factors is based on patients below 80 years of age, this study aims to fill this knowledge gap to increase the accuracy of risk assessment in the oldest old. Methods: Retrospective, observational cohort study using Swedish national health register data and BMD data from osteoporosis clinics. Women aged at least 60 were identified from a random sample of the general population and from the BMD databases and allocated to two populations representing patients at different stages of risk assessment. The relative impact of risk factors on fracture risk was assessed using multivariate competing risk regression with fracture as outcome and death as competing event. Results: A total of 163,329 women were included from the general population (52,499 aged 80+) and 22,378 from the BMD databases (4563 aged 80+). The clinical risk factors with relatively highest effect on fracture risk in the older patients were prior fracture and hip T-score below − 2.5 SD. Other included risk factors showed lower impact in the older compared to the younger strata. Conclusions: This study confirms our understanding of the key risk factors for fracture: age, prior fracture, and a low T-score. Regarding remaining risk factors, risk assessment which fits younger women may not be suited for the 80+ strata as many common risk factors are less predictive in the older compared to the younger cohort

Total Hip Bone Mineral Density as an Indicator of Fracture Risk in Bisphosphonate-Treated Patients in a Real-World Setting

Bone mineral density (BMD) is an established measure used to diagnose patients with osteoporosis. In clinical trials, change in BMD has been shown to provide a reliable estimate of fracture risk reduction, and achieved BMD T-score has been shown to reflect the near-term risk of fracture. We aimed to test the association between BMD T-score and fracture risk in patients treated for osteoporosis in a real-world setting. This retrospective, observational cohort study included Swedish females aged &amp;gt;= 55 years who had a total hip BMD measurement at one of three participating clinics. Patients were separated into two cohorts: bisphosphonate-treated and bisphosphonate-naive prior to BMD measurement, stratified by age and prior nonvertebral fracture status. The primary outcome was cumulative incidence of clinical fractures within 24 months of BMD measurement, with other fracture types included as secondary outcomes. Associations between T-score and fracture risk were estimated using proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic splines. A total of 15,395 patients were analyzed: 11,973 bisphosphonate-naive and 3422 bisphosphonate-treated. In the 24 months following BMD measurement, 6.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9-6.7) of bisphosphonate-naive and 8.4% (95% CI, 7.5-9.4) of bisphosphonate-treated patients experienced a clinical fracture. Strong inverse relationships between BMD T-score and fracture incidence were observed in both cohorts. Among bisphosphonate-naive patients, this relationship appeared to plateau around T-score -1.5, indicating smaller marginal reductions in fracture risk above this value; bisphosphonate-treated patients showed a more consistent marginal change in fracture risk across the evaluated T-scores (-3.0 to -0.5). Trends remained robust regardless of age and prior fracture status. This real-world demonstration of a BMD-fracture risk association in both bisphosphonate-naive and bisphosphonate-treated patients extends evidence from clinical trials and recent meta-regressions supporting the suitability of total hip BMD as a meaningful outcome for the clinical management of patients with osteoporosis. (c) 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).Funding Agencies|UCB PharmaUCB Pharma SA; Amgen Inc.Amgen</p

Validation of Patient Identification Algorithms for Atopic Dermatitis Using Healthcare Databases

Introduction: The use of real-world data offers a possibility to perform large-scale epidemiological studies in actual clinical settings. Despite their many advantages, administrative databases were not designed to be used in research, and the validation of diagnoses and treatments in administrative databases is needed. The primary objective of this study was to validate an existing algorithm based on dispensed prescriptions and diagnoses of skin conditions to identify pediatric patients with atopic dermatitis (AD), using a diagnosis of AD in primary care as a gold standard. Methods: Retrospective observational data were collected from nation-wide secondary care and pharmacy-dispensed medication databases and two regional primary care databases in Sweden. An existing algorithm and a Modified algorithm, using skin-specific diagnoses from secondary care and/or pharmacy-dispensed prescriptions to identify patients with AD, were assessed. To verify the presence of AD, diagnoses from primary care were used in the base case and complemented with diagnoses from secondary care in a sensitivity analysis. Results: The sensitivity (30.0%) and positive predictive value (PPV) (40.7%) of the existing algorithm were low in the pediatric patient population when using primary care data only but increased when secondary care visits were also included in the Modified algorithm (sensitivity, 62.1%; PPV, 66.3%). The specificity of the two algorithms was high in both the base case and sensitivity analysis (95.1% and 94.1%). In the adult population, sensitivity and PPV were 20.4% and 8.7%, respectively, and increased to 48.3% and 16.9% when secondary care visits were also included in the Modified algorithm. Conclusion: The Modified algorithm can be used to identify pediatric AD populations using primary and secondary administrative data with acceptable sensitivity and specificity, but further modifications are needed to accurately identify adult patients with AD

Societal economic burden and determinants of costs for atopic dermatitis

Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common inflammatory skin disease while the economic burden of AD by severity is not adequately understood. Objective: To estimate the societal economic burden and to identify cost determinants of AD. Methods: In this population-based, controlled cohort study in Sweden, patients with AD were identified through diagnosis codes in primary or secondary care or by dispensed medications using administrative healthcare registers. A reference cohort without AD was randomly selected from the general population. Healthcare costs (primary/secondary care visits and dispensed medication) and indirect costs (care for sick children and long-term sick leave for adults) were calculated annually. AD patients were stratified by age (paediatric [age &lt; 12], adolescent [12 ≤ age &lt; 18] or adult [age ≥ 18]), and severity (mild-to-moderate [M2M] or severe AD) and matched to the reference cohort. Results: Compared with controls, the annual mean per-patient direct healthcare costs in the first year following diagnosis were €941 and €1259 higher in paediatric patients with M2M and severe AD, respectively. In the first year following diagnosis, the mean indirect cost for care of sick children was €69 and €78 higher per patient in M2M and severe AD, respectively. In adolescents with M2M and severe AD, direct healthcare costs were €816 and €1260 higher, respectively. In adults, healthcare costs were €1583 and €2963 higher in patients with M2M and severe AD, respectively and indirect costs were €148 and €263 higher compared with controls. Management of comorbid medical conditions was an important driver of incremental healthcare costs. Total incremental societal economic burden for AD was €351 and €96 million higher in patients with M2M and severe AD, respectively, compared to controls. Conclusion: AD is associated with a significant societal economic burden primarily driven by the cost burden of M2M AD due to the high prevalence of this population. Regardless of severity level, management of non-AD comorbidities is a major driver of total costs

Comorbidity burden in adult atopic dermatitis : a population-based study

Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease that has been shown to be associated with allergic comorbidities. However, studies examining comorbidities in patients with AD are incomplete, which may contribute to suboptimal care. Objectives: The objective was to compare the risk of developing different allergic and nonallergic comorbidities among adult patients with AD to that of a matched reference cohort in Sweden. Methods: This was a nationwide population-based cohort study using longitudinal data from primary and specialist care registers. AD patients were identified by confirmed diagnosis in primary or specialist care. A non-AD reference cohort was randomly drawn from the general population and matched 1:1 with the AD patients on age, gender, and geographical region. The risk of developing the following conditions was evaluated: asthma, food hypersensitivity, allergic rhinitis, neurological disorders, psychiatric disorders, infections, immunological &amp; inflammatory disorders, type 1 diabetes (T1D), type 2 diabetes (T2D), endocrine &amp; metabolic disorders, skeletal disorders, ocular disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and malignancies. Results: This study included 107,774 AD patients [mild-to-moderate (n = 92,413) and severe (n = 15,361)] and an equally-sized reference cohort. AD patients displayed a higher risk of developing comorbid conditions for all investigated categories, except for T1D, compared with the reference cohort. The highest risk compared with the reference cohort was observed for allergic comorbidities followed by immunological &amp; inflammatory disorders (hazard ratio: 2.15) and infections (hazard ratio: 2.01). Patients with AD also had higher risk of developing multiple comorbidities (2 or more). The risk of comorbidity onset increased alongside AD severity and patients with active AD were associated with increased risk of comorbidity onset compared with patients in remission. Conclusions: AD patients are at an increased risk of developing many comorbidities that extend beyond allergic conditions. This study highlights the need for interdisciplinary follow-up of comorbidities in the management of AD patients to reduce overall patient burden