A Mixture of Regressions Model of COVID-19 Death Rates and Population Comorbidities

As the COVID-19 pandemic spread worldwide, it has become clearer that prevalence of certain comorbidities in a given population could make it more vulnerable to serious outcomes of that disease, including fatality. Indeed, it might be insightful from a health policy perspective to identify clusters of populations in terms of the associations between their prevalent comorbidities and the observed COVID-19 specific death rates. In this study, we described a mixture of polynomial time series (MoPTS) model to simultaneously identify (a) three clusters of 86 U.S. cities in terms of their dynamic death rates, and (b) the different associations of those rates with 5 key comorbidities among the populations in the clusters. We also described an EM algorithm for efficient maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters

Transition from Social Vulnerability to Resiliency vis-à-vis COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed systemic deficiencies in preparing and planning for disasters, with profound health, economic, social, political, and humanitarian consequences. When preparing for pandemics, social vulnerability needs to be assessed using vulnerability indices to identify which populations are at greater risk. In this context, we examined the possible association of social vulnerabilities in U.S. cities with COVID-19 case fatality ratios. Post-pandemic return to normalcy is fraught with uncertainty over the ability of different communities to recover with varying degrees of resilience. Towards this, we recommend use of a community resiliency planning framework, along with modeling and eval

Infertility treatment outcome in sub groups of obese population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity is a common disorder with a negative impact on IVF treatment outcome. It is not clear whether morbidly obese women (BMI >= 35 kg/m2) respond to treatment differently as compared to obese women (BMI = 30–34.9 kg/m2) in IVF. Our aim was to compare the outcome of IVF or ICSI treatments in obese patients to that in morbidly obese patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This retrospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care centre. Patients inclusion criteria were as follows; BMI ≥ 30, age 20–40 years old, first cycle IVF/ICSI treatment with primary infertility and long follicular pituitary down regulation protocol.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 406 obese patients (group A) and 141 morbidly obese patients (group B) satisfied the inclusion criteria. Average BMI was 32.1 ± 1.38 kg/m2 for group A versus 37.7 ± 2.99 kg/m²for group B. Patient age, cause of infertility, duration of stimulation, fertilization rate, and number of transferred embryos were similar in both groups. Compared to group A, group B had fewer medium size and mature follicles (14 vs. 16), fewer oocytes collected (7 vs. 9) and required higher doses of HMG (46.2 vs. 38.5 amps). There was also a higher cancellation rate in group B (28.3% vs. 19%) and lower clinical pregnancy rate per started cycle (19.9% vs. 28.6%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In a homogenous infertile and obese patient population stratified according to their BMI, morbid obesity is associated with unfavorable IVF/ICSI cycle outcome as evidenced by lower pregnancy rates. It is recommended that morbidly obese patients undergo appropriate counseling before the initiation of this expensive and invasive therapy.</p

Stretching the spines of gymnasts: a review

Gymnastics is noted for involving highly specialized strength, power, agility and flexibility. Flexibility is perhaps the single greatest discriminator of gymnastics from other sports. The extreme ranges of motion achieved by gymnasts require long periods of training, often occupying more than a decade. Gymnasts also start training at an early age (particularly female gymnasts), and the effect of gymnastics training on these young athletes is poorly understood. One of the concerns of many gymnastics professionals is the training of the spine in hyperextension-the ubiquitous 'arch' seen in many gymnastics positions and movements. Training in spine hyperextension usually begins in early childhood through performance of a skill known as a back-bend. Does practising a back-bend and other hyperextension exercises harm young gymnasts? Current information on spine stretching among gymnasts indicates that, within reason, spine stretching does not appear to be an unusual threat to gymnasts' health. However, the paucity of information demands that further study be undertaken