Stochastic Dominance Approach to Evaluate Optimism Bias in Truck Toll Forecasts

Optimism bias is a consistent feature associated with truck toll forecasts, à la Standard & Poor’s and the NCHRP synthesis reports. Given the persistent problem, two major sources of this bias are explored. In particular, the ignorance of operating cost as a demand-side factor and lack of attention to user heterogeneity are found to contribute to this bias. To address it, stochastic dominance analysis is used to assess the risk associated with toll revenue forecasts. For a hypothetical corridor, it is shown that ignorance of operating cost savings can lead to upward bias in the threshold value of time distribution. Furthermore, dominance analysis demonstrates that there is greater risk associated with the revenue forecast when demand heterogeneity is factored in. The approach presented can be generally applied to all toll forecasts and is not restricted to trucks.Forecast Bias; Operating costs; Risk assessment; Savings; Stochastic Dominance; Tolls;Trucks

Estimating Cost of Conflict and Increasing Food Security In Southern Sudan

In order to meet humanitarian assistance programs, donor organizations like WFP need to procure food either locally or import it. Internal conflict may pose significant barriers to local and regional procurement programs like P4P. We develop a methodology to estimate the cost of conflict using a microeconomic setting. We examine the use of forward contracts to procure locally and derive a) what price should be paid to the suppliers, b) how should contracts be designed so that agents relinquish conflict and sign P4P contracts.Food Security and Poverty,

Kinetics of Os(VIII)-catalysed Oxidation of Neutralized Glyoxylic & Pyruvic Acids by Alkaline Hexacyanoferrate(III)

586-58

Marine pollution in the Indian Ocean: problems, prospects and perspectives

Following a brief outline of the physiography of the Indian Ocean, an examination is made of the current situation regarding contamination of the environment. Prominent marine pollutants and the consequences of the marine disposal are discussed, considering in particular oil pollution, heavy metal pollution, agricultural wastes and domestic wastes. Research activities conducted in the area investigating the levels of marine pollution are detailed, and an evaluation made of future prospects concerning the monitoring and control of pollution

Kinetics of Oxidation of Neutralized Glyoxylic & Pyruvic Acids by Alkaline Hexacyanoferrate(III)

583-58

Conflict, Aid and Poverty: Cause, Effect and Prediction

Recent studies and reports suggest that foreign aid/intervention has been somewhat futile in eradicating conflict. In this study, we develop a simultaneous donor/recipient model of foreign aid and terrorism. Thereafter, we extend our theoretical propositions through a machine learning algorithm of inductive causation. We find that terrorism increases foreign aid, however foreign assistance is futile in mitigating terrorism. Additionally, socio-economic factors influence foreign aid given by the donors. But foreign assistance is unsuccessful in enhancing the livelihoods of the underprivileged. We conclude that foreign aid policies need to be more efficient.Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,

Pseudomyxoma peritonei: an unusual complication of ovarian tumor

No Abstrac

Coastal management to protect the fisheries resources of Gujarat coast - a case study

Gujarat, a unique maritime state has the longest coastline of 1 ,663 km length and characterized by presence of two gulfs namely the Gulf of Kachchh and the Gulf of Khambhat. The four major rivers of Gujarat (Sabarmati, Mahi, Narmada and Tapti) discharged 70387 Mm3IYear to the Gulf of Khambhat as of 1975. Since then several dams have been constructed on these rivers and their tributaries reducing the volumes of the outflow. It can, safely be assumed that the outflow of nutrient-laden silt from these rivers has, also reduced proportionately/ significantly changing the hydrological cycles