Hydroclimatic vulnerability of peat carbon in the central Congo Basin

The forested swamps of the central Congo Basin store approximately 30 billion metric tonnes of carbon in peat1,2. Little is known about the vulnerability of these carbon stocks. Here we investigate this vulnerability using peat cores from a large interfluvial basin in the Republic of the Congo and palaeoenvironmental methods. We find that peat accumulation began at least at 17,500 calibrated years before present (cal. yr BP; taken as AD 1950). Our data show that the peat that accumulated between around 7,500 to around 2,000 cal. yr BP is much more decomposed compared with older and younger peat. Hydrogen isotopes of plant waxes indicate a drying trend, starting at approximately 5,000 cal. yr BP and culminating at approximately 2,000 cal. yr BP, coeval with a decline in dominant swamp forest taxa. The data imply that the drying climate probably resulted in a regional drop in the water table, which triggered peat decomposition, including the loss of peat carbon accumulated prior to the onset of the drier conditions. After approximately 2,000 cal. yr BP, our data show that the drying trend ceased, hydrologic conditions stabilized and peat accumulation resumed. This reversible accumulation–loss–accumulation pattern is consistent with other peat cores across the region, indicating that the carbon stocks of the central Congo peatlands may lie close to a climatically driven drought threshold. Further research should quantify the combination of peatland threshold behaviour and droughts driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions that may trigger this positive carbon cycle feedback in the Earth system

Empirical validation of the New Zealand serious non-fatal injury outcome indicator for 'all injury'

Our purpose was to empirically validate the official New Zealand (NZ) serious non-fatal 'all injury' indicator. To that end, we aimed to investigate the assumption that cases selected by the indicator have a high probability of admission. Using NZ hospital in-patient records, we identified serious injury diagnoses, captured by the indicator, if their diagnosis-specific survival probability was ≤0.941 based on at least 100 admissions. Corresponding diagnosis-specific admission probabilities from regions in Canada, Denmark and Greece were estimated. Aggregate admission probabilities across those injury diagnoses were calculated and inference made to New Zealand. The admission probabilities were 0.82, 0.89 and 0.90 for the regions of Canada, Denmark and Greece, respectively. This work provides evidence that the threshold set for the official New Zealand serious non-fatal injury indicator for 'all injury' captures injuries with high aggregate admission probability. If so, it is valid for monitoring the incidence of serious injuries. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted

An initial investigation into the organic matter biogeochemistry of the Congo River

The Congo River, which drains pristine tropical forest and savannah and is the second largest exporter of terrestrial carbon to the ocean, was sampled in early 2008 to investigate organic matter (OM) dynamics in this historically understudied river basin. We examined the elemental (%OC, %N, C:N), isotopic (δ13C, Δ14C, δ15N) and biochemical composition (lignin phenols) of coarse particulate (>63 μm; CPOM) and fine particulate (0.7–63 μm; FPOM) OM and DOC, δ13C, Δ14C and lignin phenol composition with respect to dissolved OM (<0.7 μm; DOM) from five sites in the Congo River Basin. At all sample locations the organic carbon load was dominated by the dissolved phase (∼82–89% of total organic carbon) and the total suspended sediment load was principally fine particulate material (∼81–91% fine suspended sediment). Distinct compositional and isotopic differences were observed between all fractions. Congo CPOM, FPOM and DOM all originated from vegetation and soil inputs as evidenced by elemental, isotopic and lignin phenol data, however FPOM was derived from much older carbon pools (mean Δ14C = −62.2 ± −13.2‰, n = 5) compared to CPOM and DOM (mean Δ14C = 55.7 ± 30.6‰, n = 4 and 73.4 ± 16.1‰, n = 5 respectively). The modern radiocarbon ages for DOM belie a degraded lignin compositional signature (i.e. elevated acid:aldehyde ratios (Ad:Al) relative to CPOM and FPOM), and indicate that the application of OM degradation patterns derived from particulate phase studies to dissolved samples needs to be reassessed: these elevated ratios are likely attributable to fractionation processes during solubilization of plant material. The relatively low DOM carbon-normalized lignin yields (Λ8; 0.67–1.12 (mg(100 mg OC)−1)) could also reflect fractionation processes, however, they have also been interpreted as an indication of significant microbial or algal sources of DOM. CPOM appears to be well preserved higher vascular plant material as evidenced by its modern radiocarbon age, elevated C:N (17.2–27.1) and Λ8 values (4.56–7.59 (mg(100 mg OC)−1)). In relation to CPOM, the aged FPOM fraction (320–580 ybp 14C ages) was comparatively degraded, as demonstrated by its nitrogen enrichment (C:N 11.4–14.3), lower Λ8 (2.80–4.31 (mg(100 mg OC)−1)) and elevated lignin Ad:Al values similar to soil derived OM. In this study we observed little modification of the OM signature from sample sites near the cities of Brazzaville and Kinshasa to the head of the estuary (∼350 km) highlighting the potential for future studies to assess seasonal and long-term OM dynamics from this logistically feasible location and derive relevant information with respect to OM exported to the Atlantic Ocean. The relative lack of OM data for the Congo River Basin highlights the importance of studies such as this for establishing baselines upon which to gauge future change

Simulating carbon accumulation and loss in the central Congo peatlands

Peatlands of the central Congo Basin have accumulated carbon over millennia. They currently store some 29 billion tonnes of carbon in peat. However, our understanding of the controls on peat carbon accumulation and loss and the vulnerability of this stored carbon to climate change is in its infancy. Here we present a new model of tropical peatland development, DigiBog_Congo, that we use to simulate peat carbon accumulation and loss in a rain-fed interfluvial peatland that began forming ~20,000 calendar years Before Present (cal. yr BP, where ‘present’ is 1950 CE). Overall, the simulated age-depth curve is in good agreement with palaeoenvironmental reconstructions derived from a peat core at the same location as our model simulation. We find two key controls on long-term peat accumulation: water at the peat surface (surface wetness) and the very slow anoxic decay of recalcitrant material. Our main simulation shows that between the Late Glacial and early Holocene there were several multidecadal periods where net peat and carbon gain alternated with net loss. Later, a climatic dry phase beginning ~5200 cal. yr BP caused the peatland to become a long-term carbon source from ~3975 to 900 cal. yr BP. Peat as old as ~7000 cal. yr BP was decomposed before the peatland's surface became wetter again, suggesting that changes in rainfall alone were sufficient to cause a catastrophic loss of peat carbon lasting thousands of years. During this time, 6.4 m of the column of peat was lost, resulting in 57% of the simulated carbon stock being released. Our study provides an approach to understanding the future impact of climate change and potential land-use change on this vulnerable store of carbon