Tradeoffs in Trade Data: Do Our Assumptions Affect Our Results?

Researchers investigating the link between trade and peace often face a severe problem of list-wise deletion from missing trade data. Attempts to mitigate this problem include assuming that most observations are zero or imputing the values of such flows. We compare two frequently used trade data sets (the Gleditsch data set and the Correlates of War Project data set). We classify individual observations as observed, constructed or missing. We demonstrate that state attributes are systematically related to different categories of trade data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we also find that replacing some missing data with estimated values tends to inflate the effects of trade in conflict models, although the effects differ by data set

Mass media attention to welfare state reforms: evidence from Britain, 1996–2014

One of the core questions facing political scientists is how politicians are able to implement cutbacks without suffering electoral backlash. A possible explanation might be that the mass media refrain from reporting on welfare state reforms in a consistent way. In order to explore this, two unique datasets have been collected: one contains information on all policy reforms of British old age pensions and unemployment protection from 1996 to 2014, and the other contains hand-coded media articles that allow the tracking on a monthly basis of what reforms are picked up. It is found that the mass media report on cutbacks, but not on expansions, and that they prioritise easy-to-understand cutbacks over cutbacks that are more technical in nature

Um modelo para análise socioeconômica da criminalidade no município de Aracaju

Este trabalho tem por objetivo investigar as razões socioeconômicas da criminalidade em Aracaju, a partir de fontes primárias e secundárias de informação. Para tanto, parte-se de uma análise teórica, na qual foram identificadas quatro hipóteses explicativas para a criminalidade: (i) ato racional deliberado; (ii) relacionada com o ciclo econômico; (iii) decorrente da maior desigualdade social existente na economia contemporânea e; (iv) não diretamente relacionada com variáveis socioeconômicas. A seção seguinte descreve a metodologia empregada para a construção do banco de dados e para a análise por meio de regressão do tipo stepwise. Na última seção são apresentados os resultados: o modelo explica 90% do comportamento dos crimes contra o patrimônio, e as variáveis responsáveis por tal comportamento são: a concentração de renda, características da infra-estrutura existente nos bairros, a baixa densidade demográfica e a menor participação dos jovens no total da população.________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT: This paper aims to investigate the socioeconomic reasons of criminality in Aracaju/SE, using primary and secondary sources of information. Beginning with a theoretical analysis, we identified four hyphotesis to the criminality which are: (i) a deliberated rational action; (ii) related to the economic cycle; (iii) consequence of the growing social inequality in the contemporary economy and (iv) not directly related to the socioeconomic reasons. The next section describes the methodology employed to construct the database and for analysis through stepwise regression. The results are presented in the last section: our model explains 90% of the property crime behavior, mainly due: income inequality, existing characteristics of infrastructure in the city districts, low demographic density and low rate of youths participation in the whole population

Dasar dasar ekonometrika : jilid 2 edisi ketiga

xiv, 210 hlm.:ilus.: 26 c