Modeling COVID-19 pandemic with financial markets models: The case of Ja\'en (Spain)

The main objective of this work is to test whether some stochastic models typically used in financial markets could be applied to the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end we have implemented the ARIMAX and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) models originally designed for interest rate pricing but transformed by us into a forecasting tool. For the latter, which we denoted CIR*, both the Euler-Maruyama method and the Milstein method were used. Forecasts obtained with the maximum likelihood method have been validated with 95\% confidence intervals and with statistical measures of goodness of fit, such as the root mean square error (RMSE). We demonstrate that the accuracy of the obtained results is consistent with the observations and sufficiently accurate to the point that the proposed CIR* framework could be considered a valid alternative to the classical ARIMAX for modelling pandemics.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, Latex documen

Análisis del comportamiento sísmico y reforzamiento estructural del bloque I de Centro Comercial Ripley del distrito y provincia Chiclayo, departamento de Lambayeque, 2017

La siguiente investigación parte de la construcción de una edificación de acero con uso de centro comercial cuyo antecedente es un patrimonio cultural de adobe la que actualmente está convertido solo en una fachada en condiciones estructurales desconocidas, sabiendo solo que se cuenta con una junta mínima entre fachada y estructura de acero se analizó el comportamiento sísmico de la estructura interior de acero para controlar sus desplazamientos para que este no sea motivo de derrumbe de la fachada de adobe durante un sismo, para ello se propuso según los resultados del análisis un reforzamiento estructural

Quercus airborne pollen tendencies in the south of Iberian Peninsula, its correlation with meteorological trends and possible effect of the climatic change in Mediterranean forests

Resumen enviado, aceptado y publicado en el libro de resúmenes titulado "Pollen3013. 2nd International APLE APLF Congres", celebrado en septiembre de 2'13 en Madrid.Universidad de Málag

Características Epidemiológicas de los brotes de Hepatitis A en España (años 2015-2019).

[ES] Aunque España sea considerada actualmente como un país de baja endemicidad de hepatitis A, en los últimos años se siguen produciendo en nuestro país brotes causados por este virus. Se realizó una revisión de los brotes de hepatitis A notificados a la Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica (RENAVE) de 2015 a 2019, periodo durante el cual se notificaron 500 brotes. El principal ámbito de exposición fue el hogar familiar y el principal mecanismo de transmisión el contacto directo persona-persona. La mediana del tamaño y duración de los brotes fue de 2 casos y 26 días respectivamente, siendo superior en determinados ámbitos como las escuelas o guarderías y la restauración colectiva. Además, el 8% de los brotes fueron declarados como importados, fundamentalmente de países del norte de África (Marruecos y Argelia). En el 91% de los brotes con información sobre vacunación post-exposición de contactos susceptibles constaba la aplicación de esta medida. [EN] In recent years, major hepatitis A outbreaks continue to occur in Spain, even in a context of low endemicity. Hepatitis A outbreaks reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE in Spanish) from 2015 to 2019 were reviewed. During that period, 500 outbreaks were reported, most of them in households and transmitted from person-to-person. Median size and duration of outbreaks were 2 cases and 26 days, respectively, being greater in certain settings such as kindergartens/schools and restaurants/bars/canteens. Furthermore, 8% of the outbreaks were notified as imported, mainly from North African countries (Morocco and Algeria). In 91% of outbreaks with information on post-exposure vaccination of susceptible contacts, this measure was applied.N

“Education Network” a new way to teach Chemistry

The complexity of chemistry has implications for the teaching of chemistry. That chemistry is a very complex subject. The majority of the students at University think that chemistry is a difficult discipline and they have difficulty in understanding the concepts. Moreover, students' interest in chemistry decreases the first year at university. The reason for this decrease might be that the contents of chemistry laboratory classes are boring, out of date and lacking of dynamism that students experience through visual media tools. For these reasons, new programs and methodologies should be developed. Those are based on making chemistry relevant through problem solving and collaborative learning hold promise for reforming chemistry education. It is about an education according to circumstances, which is adapted to context and virtual behaviour of people. It's time to CRUSH boredom by transforming your classroom into an Escape Room adventure. School-based escape games are a great teaching tool. The students while playing, learn. The most important point is that they won’t realize they’re doing both at the same time. In this work, an educational gamification experience based on the escape room concept was developed. The first (Do It Yourself) DIY Escape Room was built the year before at Mechanical Engineer Degree started, that took more than three weeks of work. It was presented to other professors to the same subject at different degrees. That DIY Escape Room was modified and adapted to each group. Each professor changed the clues, problems and so on in order to orientate the topic as much as possible to their students.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Respiratory infection by Corynebacterium striatum: Epidemiological and clinical determinants

© 2014 The Authors. The increasing prevalence of advanced chronic respiratory disease, with frequent exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics for repeated and prolonged hospitalizations, favours the emergence of nosocomial respiratory infection by Gram-positive bacteria, such as outbreaks of Corynebacterium striatum. There is little evidence about patterns of respiratory infection, transmission and adaptive ability of this pathogen. Seventy-two C. striatum isolates from 51 advanced respiratory patients, mainly chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, were studied during 38 months. Patients were 74.8 ± 8.6 years old and 81.9% were men, who had required an average of 2.2 hospitalizations and 63.5 days in the hospital in the previous year. Of 49 isolates from 42 patients we were able to identify 12 clones by multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA), nine phenotypic variants and 22 antibiotic susceptibility patterns, and we determined their clinical and epidemiological determinants. MLSA allows identification of the existence of nosocomial outbreaks by transmission of the same or different clones, the persistence of the same clone in the environment or in patient airways for months. The study showed the high variability and adaptive capacity of the isolates, the antibiotic multidrug-resistance in all of them, and their contribution to a high morbidity and mortality (41%) during the study period.This work was supported by the General Board for Research, Technological Development and Innovation of the Department of Finance and Innovation of the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands (Direcció General de Recerca, Desenvolupament Tecnològic i Innovació, de la Conselleria d'Hisenda i Innovació, de la Comunitat Autònoma de les Illes Balears). This work was supported also by funding from Spanish MINECO through Consolider CSD2009-00006. Margarita Gomila was supported by a postdoctoral contract from the University of the Balearic Islands, with funds from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports through the International Excellence Campus ProgrammePeer Reviewe

Identification and diversity of multiresistant Corynebacterium striatum clinical isolates by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and by a multigene sequencing approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The genus <it>Corynebacterium </it>is composed of Gram-positive bacteria that are widely distributed throughout the environment; these bacteria are also part of the normal microbiota of human skin and mucous membranes. Multiple studies have shown that species of this genus, including <it>C. striatum</it>, become pathogenic to humans under special conditions. Our aim was to determine the characteristics of clinical multiresistant strains of <it>C. striatum </it>that were isolated in our geographical region, to determine their diversity, and to compare them with the type strain and with related species. We studied fifty-two strains of <it>C. striatum </it>isolated from different hospitals from Mallorca, Spain, mainly from the Hospital Joan March in Bunyola, Mallorca. Most of the strains were isolated from sputum cultures of respiratory samples from patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. To gain further insight into the genetic diversity of the strains, we analysed several housekeeping genes and other genes associated with antibiotic resistance. Strains were also characterised phenotypically by their antibiotic resistance profiles and by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The ITS1 region, <it>gyrA </it>and <it>rpoB </it>were chosen as the appropriate genes in the <it>C. striatum </it>genome to study the genetic diversity of <it>C. striatum </it>species and to discriminate between strains. After analysing these three genes, four sequence types (ST2, ST4, ST1 and ST11) were found to be the most abundant. Splits tree analysis of the strains demonstrated that these clinical isolates did not share any alleles with the type strain of the species. Recombination was detected within all of the <it>C. striatum </it>isolates, and different clonal populations were detected within the samples.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results demonstrate that the isolates were best identified using gene-based molecular methods; using these methods, the isolated strains were determined to be different from the type strain of <it>C. striatum</it>. The ITS1 region and the <it>gyrA </it>and <it>rpoB </it>genes were selected because of their variability and were the most useful tools for discriminating between strains. The phenotype and antibiotype characteristics of the strains did not seem suitable for typing purposes. MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry can be a useful method for identifying and discriminating between <it>C. striatum </it>strains.</p

Sensitivity analysis of the botulism surveillance system in Spain between 1997 and 2019

Artículo BES V.31 N.1Introducción: El botulismo es una enfermedad de baja incidencia, grave y capaz de producir brotes. Las Comunidades Autónomas notifican casos sospechosos, probables y confirmados a la Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica (RENAVE), gestionada por el Centro Nacional de Epidemiología (CNE). El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar la sensibilidad del sistema de vigilancia de botulismo alimentario, intestinal y de heridas. Método: Se empleó metodología captura-recaptura, utilizando como fuentes de información todos los casos notificados en RENAVE y los registros del Conjunto Mínimo Básico de Datos (CMBD) con diagnóstico principal de botulismo. Debido a cambios metodológicos en CMBD se dividió el periodo en dos tramos: 1997-2015 y 2016-2019. Se identificaron los casos coincidentes en ambas bases mediante las variables fecha de nacimiento, sexo y fecha y provincia de hospitalización. Se estimó el número total de casos aplicando el método Chapman-Seber. Los casos incluidos en el CMBD pero ausentes en RENAVE se analizaron en un estudio complementario utilizando información procedente de otras fuentes. Resultados: La sensibilidad de la RENAVE fue del 64,4% y del 78,7% para el botulismo alimentario, siendo inferior a la obtenida por el CMBD. Para botulismo intestinal la RENAVE fue más sensible que el CMBD en el segundo periodo, con un nivel cercano al 90%. No se identificaron casos asociados a heridas en la RENAVE. Conclusiones: La sensibilidad de RENAVE aumentó en el segundo periodo, aunque es necesario reforzar la notificación individualizada para reducir la pérdida de casos.N

Botulism in Spain: Epidemiology and Outcomes of Antitoxin Treatment, 1997-2019

Background: Botulism is a low incidence but potentially fatal infectious disease caused by neurotoxins produced mainly by Clostridium botulinum. There are different routes of acquisition, food-borne and infant/intestinal being the most frequent presentation, and antitoxin is the treatment of choice in all cases. In Spain, botulism is under surveillance, and case reporting is mandatory. Methods: This retrospective study attempts to provide a more complete picture of the epidemiology of botulism in Spain from 1997 to 2019 and an assessment of the treatment, including the relationship between a delay in antitoxin administration and the length of hospitalization using the Cox proportional hazards test and Kruskal-Wallis test, and an approach to the frequency of adverse events, issues for which no previous national data have been published. Results: Eight of the 44 outbreaks were associated with contaminated commercial foods involving ≤7 cases/outbreak; preserved vegetables were the main source of infection, followed by fish products; early antitoxin administration significantly reduces the hospital stay, and adverse reactions to the antitoxin affect around 3% of treated cases.S

Cognitive impairment in a murine model of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis with relapsing-remitting course

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neuroinflammatory disorder characterized by demyelination and progressive axonal loss that affects the central nervous system. In addition of physical disability and the neurodegenerative process, MS associates with co-morbid behavioral, neuropsychiatric and cognitive impairment, including learning and memory deficits. The study of cognitive impairment in the currently most suitable experimental animal model of MS, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), constitutes a very valuable tool to translate ultimately into clinical a better diagnosis and more effective treatment protocols. In our study, we analyzed the behavioral profile of a murine model of EAE induced by myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein peptide (MOG35-55) which develops a relapsing-remitting course. In the early neuroinflammatory phase of the disease, i.e. 19-21 days post immunization (dpi), EAE mice exhibited deficits in motor coordination/skill learning (Rotarod test), and spatial working memory (spontaneous alternation in Y-maze), as well as depressive symptoms (tail suspension test) and anxiety-like behavior (elevated plus-maze). EAE mice did not yet show object recognition memory impairments, suggesting that reference memory was not altered in this phase. However, from 33-35 dpi until late phases (49-52 dpi), independently of clinical score, EAE mice exhibited a memory decline showing lower discrimination index in the object recognition test. EAE late phase was also characterized by motor coordination and spatial working memory impairments as well as higher anxiety-like behavior. Overall, these data demonstrates a differential pattern of gradual cognitive dysfunctions during the relapsing-remitting EAE course that could help to understand the development of progressive cognitive decline in MS patients. Funding: Andalusian Regional Ministries of Economy, Innovation, Science and Employment (SEJ-1863; CTS643) and of Health (PI-0234-2013; Nicola´s Monardes Programme).Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech