The Importance of Social and Government Learning in Ex Ante Policy Evaluation

We provide two methodological insights on \emph{ex ante} policy evaluation for macro models of economic development. First, we show that the problems of parameter instability and lack of behavioral constancy can be overcome by considering learning dynamics. Hence, instead of defining social constructs as fixed exogenous parameters, we represent them through stable functional relationships such as social norms. Second, we demonstrate how agent computing can be used for this purpose. By deploying a model of policy prioritization with endogenous government behavior, we estimate the performance of different policy regimes. We find that, while strictly adhering to policy recommendations increases efficiency, the nature of such recipes has a bigger effect. In other words, while it is true that lack of discipline is detrimental to prescription outcomes (a common defense of failed recommendations), it is more important that such prescriptions consider the systemic and adaptive nature of the policymaking process (something neglected by traditional technocratic advice)

Recovering Latent Signals from a Mixture of Measurements using a Gaussian Process Prior

In sensing applications, sensors cannot always measure the latent quantity of interest at the required resolution, sometimes they can only acquire a blurred version of it due the sensor's transfer function. To recover latent signals when only noisy mixed measurements of the signal are available, we propose the Gaussian process mixture of measurements (GPMM), which models the latent signal as a Gaussian process (GP) and allows us to perform Bayesian inference on such signal conditional to a set of noisy mixture of measurements. We describe how to train GPMM, that is, to find the hyperparameters of the GP and the mixing weights, and how to perform inference on the latent signal under GPMM; additionally, we identify the solution to the underdetermined linear system resulting from a sensing application as a particular case of GPMM. The proposed model is validated in the recovery of three signals: a smooth synthetic signal, a real-world heart-rate time series and a step function, where GPMM outperformed the standard GP in terms of estimation error, uncertainty representation and recovery of the spectral content of the latent signal.Comment: Published on IEEE Signal Processing Letters on Dec. 201

La evaluación ambiental estratégica: desafíos y propuestas tras su incorporación al ordenamiento jurídico chileno

This article discusses what should be the policies and plans to the Strategic Environmental Assessment that apply, highlighting what the role of the environmental authority and the promoter of the policy and / or plan in the process. It also seeks to clarify how the principles should be part of the Administrative Procedure Act in the Strategic Environmental Assessment. Finally, it is intended to propose what the milestones that should take into consideration the administrative procedure of Strategic Environmental Assessment, identifying the possible effects that could generate the full operation of the Strategic Environmental Assessment in our legal system.El presente artículo analiza cuáles deberían ser las políticas y planes a los que la Evaluación Ambiental Estratégica se aplicaría, destacando cuál sería el papel de la autoridad ambiental y del promotor de la política y/o plan dentro del proceso. Asimismo, se pretende en dilucidar cómo debería integrarse los principios de la Ley de Procedimiento Administrativo en la Evaluación Ambiental Estratégica. Por último, se pretende proponer cuáles serán los hitos que debería tener en consideración el procedimiento administrativo de la Evaluación Ambiental Estratégica, identificando los posibles efectos que podría generar el pleno funcionamiento de la Evaluación Ambiental Estratégica en nuestro ordenamiento jurídico

How does government expenditure impact sustainable development? Studying the multidimensional link between budgets and development gaps

Abstract We develop a bottom-up causal framework to study the impact of public spending on high-dimensional and interdependent policy spaces in the context of socioeconomic and environmental development. Using data across 140 countries, we estimate the indicator-country-specific development gaps that will remain open in 2030. We find large heterogeneity in development gaps, and non-linear responses to changes in the total amount of government expenditure. Importantly, our method identifies bounds to how much a gap can be reduced by 2030 through sheer increments in public spending. We show that these structural bottlenecks cannot be addressed through expenditure on the existing government programs, but require novel micro-policies intended to affect behaviors, technologies, and organizational practices. One particular set of bottlenecks that stands out relates to the environmental issues contained in the sustainable development goals 14 and 15

La conversación sobre big data en Twitter. Una primera aproximación al análisis del discurso dominante

L'anàlisi de grans quantitats de dades (big data) s'albira com el nou paradigma d'accés al coneixement en camps tan diversos de la ciència com la medicina, la biologia, la física o les ciències socials. El processament de les dades obtingudes de cercadors i xarxes socials s'ha convertit en una peça essencial per a la definició d'estratègies en política, economia o màrqueting. Aquest treball analitza la presència d'informacions sobre big data en una de les principals xarxes socials, Twitter. Els seus objectius són la jerarquització d'usuaris i missatges en funció de la seva influència en la conversa sobre big data, així com la identificació dels temes dominants a la xarxa, a partir de l'anàlisi del contingut dels missatges analitzats. Els resultats indiquen una clara orientació de la informació sobre big data cap als negocis, la predicció i la presa de decisions.Big data analysis is emerging as the new paradigm of access to knowledge in such diverse fields of science as physics, medicine, genetics, social sciences, economy and communication. The analysis of data collected from social networks or search engines has become essential to know how humans communicate, as well as to define strategies in politics, economics or marketing. This paper analyses the presence of information about big data in one of today’s major social networks, the microblogging site Twitter. The main objective of this paper is the classification of users and posts in terms of their influence on the conversation about big data, and the identification of the dominant discourse in Twitter by analyzing the content of the messages posted. Our results point out a clear orientation of the information about big data towards business, prediction and decision making.El análisis de grandes cantidades de datos (big data) se vislumbra como el nuevo paradigma de acceso al conocimiento en campos tan diversos de la ciencia como la medicina, la biología, la física o las ciencias sociales. El procesamiento de los datos obtenidos de buscadores y redes sociales se ha convertido en una pieza esencial para la definición de estrategias en política, economía o marketing. Este trabajo analiza la presencia de informaciones sobre big data en una de las principales redes sociales, Twitter. Sus objetivos son la jerarquización de usuarios y mensajes en función de su influencia en la conversación sobre big data, así como la identificación de los temas dominantes en la red, a partir del análisis del contenido de los mensajes analizados. Los resultados indican una clara orientación de la información sobre big data hacia los negocios, la predicción y la toma de decisiones

Aspectos Críticos de la Invalidación Administrativa en la Ley 19.880: Análisis en la jurisprudencia de la Contraloría General de la República a 8 años de su vigencia

El presente artículo analiza aspectos de la invalidación administrativa que han suscitado discusión. En efecto, a 8 años de la entrada en vigencia de la Ley 19.880, la jurisprudencia de la Contraloría General de la República se ha manifestado a través de numerosos cuestionamientos respecto de aquella institución, los cuales dicen relación con diversos ámbitos de su aplicación, como la obligatoriedad de la audiencia previa, los casos en que la Contraloría General de la República dispone la necesidad u ordena, derechamente, invalidar un acto administrativo.Además, analiza aspectos como la invalidación de los actos administrativos que se producen dentro del contexto de procedimientos reglados, el plazo para invalidar, si cabe la preclusión en la invalidación, y la relación existente entre la invalidación y la nulidad de derecho público

Wearable Structured Light System in Non-Rigid Configuration

Traditionally, structured light methods have been studied in rigid configurations. In these configurations the position and orientation between the light emitter and the camera are fixed and known beforehand. In this paper we break with this rigidness and present a new structured light system in non-rigid configuration. This system is composed by a wearable standard perspective camera and a simple laser emitter. Our non-rigid configuration permits free motion of the light emitter with respect to the camera. The point-based pattern emitted by the laser permits us to easily establish correspondences between the image from the camera and a virtual one generated from the light emitter. Using these correspondences, our method computes rotation and translation up to scale of the planes of the scene where the point pattern is projected and reconstructs them. This constitutes a very useful tool for navigation applications in indoor environments, which are mainly composed of planar surfaces