Estimating the Burden of Malaria: The Need for Improved Surveillance

Ivo Mueller, Laurence Slutsker, and Marcel Tanner highlight the importance of using complementary methods to estimate the burden of malaria and call for a renewed focus on efficient malaria surveillance

Analysis of student´s proficiency evaluation model for adaptative testing / Analysis of student's proficiency evaluation model for adaptive testing

A evolução da Internet e sua adoção transformou e continua transformando cada vez mais o contexto humano e, a educação, também está inserida nessa situação. Devido a isso, há ferramentas de apoio ao estudante, como sistemas avaliativos online. Apresentaremos nesse trabalho os resultados da simulação de uma avaliação online feita por um aluno com dada proficiência, a fim de coletar todos os dados a respeito do desempenho deste aluno – sua nota final – utilizando a teoria de Resposta ao Item em duas abordagens para cômputo da nota final. Uma primeira abordagem usando a questão subsequente a uma respondida de um nível de dificuldade superior ou inferior dependendo do acerto da questão anterior. E uma segunda usando a questão subsequente a uma respondida de um nível de dificuldade entre a anterior e a do limite máximo ou mínimo dependendo do acerto da questão anterior. Foram analisados resultados de simulação para diferentes tamanhos de provas e para diferentes proficiências dos respondentes simulados. Após análise multivariada de clusterização dos resultados por K-means, verifica-se que ambas as abordagens são subótimas para situações diferentes de tamanhos de prova na busca da nota final mais próxima da proficiência simulada

Predictive Demand Service for Public Transit Using CNN/ Atendimento Preditivo de Demanda do Transporte Público Coletivo Usando CNN

Several cities in Brazil undergo a territorial expansion and inhabitants constantly, this process is called urbanization. An uncontrolled urbanization generates many difficulties, highlighting the mobility of public transport, since many citizens depend on this mobility, we have, for example, public transport in Goiânia, which directly affects the living conditions of passengers. For your foreknowledge, a model capable of mirroring the performance of your demand is essential, providing that the system meets users in an acceptable way. A two-dimensional CNN is a CNN model that has a hidden convolutional layer that operates on a 1D sequence, it is a convenient mechanism to simulate a univariate forecast of time series of the predictive service of Goiânia's public transport. The method is equivalent to an analysis of the focal parts that make up the public transport system and how to represent it in the 1D convolutional neural network. Actual data of the systems and their results were compared to those expected, showing the model's effectiveness. This work manifests a forecast of the demand for public transport in Goiânia, to make it susceptible to users of the system.

Post-vaccination COVID-19: A case-control study and genomic analysis of 119 breakthrough infections in partially vaccinated individuals

BACKGROUND: Post-vaccination infections challenge the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We matched 119 cases of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection with BNT162b2 mRNA, or ChAdOx1 nCOV-19, to 476 unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 (Sept 2020-March 2021), according to age and sex. Differences in 60-day all-cause mortality, hospital admission, and hospital length of stay were evaluated. Phylogenetic, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and minority variant allele (MVA) full genome sequencing analysis was performed. RESULTS: 116/119 cases developed COVID-19 post first vaccination dose (median 14 days, IQR 9 - 24 days). Overall, 13/119 (10∙9%) cases and 158/476 (33∙2%) controls died (p<0.001), corresponding to 4∙5 number needed to treat (NNT). Multivariably, vaccination was associated with 69∙3% (95%CI 45∙8 - 82∙6) relative risk (RR) reduction in mortality. Similar results were seen in subgroup analysis for patients with infection onset ≥14 days after first vaccination (RR reduction 65∙1%, 95%CI 27∙2 - 83∙2, NNT 4∙5), and across vaccine subgroups (BNT162b2: RR reduction 66%, 95%CI 34∙9 - 82∙2, NNT 4∙7, ChAdOx1: RR reduction 78∙4%, 95%CI 30∙4 - 93∙3, NNT 4∙1). Hospital admissions (OR 0∙80, 95%CI 0∙51 - 1∙28), and length of stay (-1∙89 days, 95%CI -4∙57 - 0∙78) were lower for cases, while Ct values were higher (30∙8 versus 28∙8, p = 0.053). B.1.1.7 was the predominant lineage in cases (100/108, 92.6%) and controls (341/446, 76.5%). Genomic analysis identified one post-vaccination case harboring the E484K vaccine escape mutation (B.1.525 lineage). CONCLUSIONS: Previous vaccination reduces mortality when B.1.1.7 is the predominant lineage. No significant lineage-specific genomic changes during phylogenetic, SNP and MVA analysis were detected

Using Whole Genome Sequences to Investigate Adenovirus Outbreaks in a Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Unit

A recent surge in human mastadenovirus (HAdV) cases, including five deaths, amongst a haematopoietic stem cell transplant population led us to use whole genome sequencing (WGS) to investigate. We compared sequences from 37 patients collected over a 20-month period with sequences from GenBank and our own database of HAdVs. Maximum likelihood trees and pairwise differences were used to evaluate genotypic relationships, paired with the epidemiological data from routine infection prevention and control (IPC) records and hospital activity data. During this time period, two formal outbreaks had been declared by IPC, while WGS detected nine monophyletic clusters, seven were corroborated by epidemiological evidence and by comparison of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. One of the formal outbreaks was confirmed, and the other was not. Of the five HAdV-associated deaths, three were unlinked and the remaining two considered the source of transmission. Mixed infection was frequent (10%), providing a sentinel source of recombination and superinfection. Immunosuppressed patients harboring a high rate of HAdV positivity require comprehensive surveillance. As a consequence of these findings, HAdV WGS is being incorporated routinely into clinical practice to influence IPC policy contemporaneously

Prospective strategies to delay the evolution of anti-malarial drug resistance: weighing the uncertainty

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The evolution of drug resistance in malaria parasites highlights a need to identify and evaluate strategies that could extend the useful therapeutic life of anti-malarial drugs. Such strategies are deployed to best effect before resistance has emerged, under conditions of great uncertainty.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Here, the emergence and spread of resistance was modelled using a hybrid framework to evaluate prospective strategies, estimate the time to drug failure, and weigh uncertainty. The waiting time to appearance was estimated as the product of low mutation rates, drug pressure, and parasite population sizes during treatment. Stochastic persistence and the waiting time to establishment were simulated as an evolving branching process. The subsequent spread of resistance was simulated in simple epidemiological models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using this framework, the waiting time to the failure of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) for malaria was estimated, and a policy of multiple first-line therapies (MFTs) was evaluated. The models quantify the effects of reducing drug pressure in delaying appearance, reducing the chances of establishment, and slowing spread. By using two first-line therapies in a population, it is possible to reduce drug pressure while still treating the full complement of cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>At a global scale, because of uncertainty about the time to the emergence of ACT resistance, there was a strong case for MFTs to guard against early failure. Our study recommends developing operationally feasible strategies for implementing MFTs, such as distributing different ACTs at the clinic and for home-based care, or formulating different ACTs for children and adults.</p

Prevalence and Predictors of Urinary Tract Infection and Severe Malaria Among Febrile Children Attending Makongoro Health Centre in Mwanza City, North-Western Tanzania.

In malaria endemic areas, fever has been used as an entry point for presumptive treatment of malaria. At present, the decrease in malaria transmission in Africa implies an increase in febrile illnesses related to other causes among underfives. Moreover, it is estimated that more than half of the children presenting with fever to public clinics in Africa do not have a malaria infection. Thus, for a better management of all febrile illnesses among under-fives, it becomes relevant to understand the underlying aetiology of the illness. The present study was conducted to determine the relative prevalence and predictors of P. falciparum malaria, urinary tract infections and bacteremia among under-fives presenting with a febrile illness at the Makongoro Primary Health Centre, North-Western Tanzania. From February to June 2011, a cross-sectional analytical survey was conducted among febrile children less than five years of age. Demographic and clinical data were collected using a standardized pre-tested questionnaire. Blood and urine culture was done, followed by the identification of isolates using in-house biochemical methods. Susceptibility patterns to commonly used antibiotics were investigated using the disc diffusion method. Giemsa stained thin and thick blood smears were examined for any malaria parasites stages. A total of 231 febrile under-fives were enrolled in the study. Of all the children, 20.3% (47/231, 95%CI, 15.10-25.48), 9.5% (22/231, 95%CI, 5.72-13.28) and 7.4% (17/231, 95%CI, 4.00-10.8) had urinary tract infections, P. falciparum malaria and bacteremia respectively. In general, 11.5% (10/87, 95%CI, 8.10-14.90) of the children had two infections and only one child had all three infections. Predictors of urinary tract infections (UTI) were dysuria (OR = 12.51, 95% CI, 4.28-36.57, P < 0.001) and body temperature (40-41 C) (OR = 12.54, 95% CI, 4.28-36.73, P < 0.001). Predictors of P. falciparum severe malaria were pallor (OR = 4.66 95%CI, 1.21-17.8, P = 0.025) and convulsion (OR = 102, 95% CI, 10-996, P = 0.001). Escherichia coli were the common gram negative isolates from urine (72.3%, 95% CI, 66.50-78.10) and blood (40%, 95%CI, and 33.70-46.30). Escherichia coli from urine were 100% resistant to ampicillin, 97% resistant to co-trimoxazole, 85% resistant to augmentin and 32.4% resistant to gentamicin; and they were 100%, 91.2% and 73.5% sensitive to meropenem, ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone respectively. Urinary tract infection caused by multi drug resistant Escherichia coli was the common cause of febrile illness in our setting. Improvement of malaria diagnosis and its differential diagnosis from other causes of febrile illnesses may provide effective management of febrile illnesses among children in Tanzania

Liver transplantation for type I and type IV glycogen storage disease

Progressive liver failure or hepatic complications of the primary disease led to orthotopic liver transplantation in eight children with glycogen storage disease over a 9-year period. One patient had glycogen storage disease (GSD) type I (von Gierke disease) and seven patients had type IV GSD (Andersen disease). As previously reported [19], a 16.5-year-old-girl with GSD type I was successfully treated in 1982 by orthotopic liver transplantation under cyclosporine and steroid immunosuppression. The metabolic consequences of the disease have been eliminated, the renal function and size have remained normal, and the patient has lived a normal young adult life. A late portal venous thrombosis was treated successfully with a distal splenorenal shunt. Orthotopic liver transplantation was performed in seven children with type N GSD who had progressive hepatic failure. Two patients died early from technical complications. The other five have no evidence of recurrent hepatic amylopectinosis after 1.1–5.8 postoperative years. They have had good physical and intellectual maturation. Amylopectin was found in many extrahepatic tissues prior to surgery, but cardiopathy and skeletal myopathy have not developed after transplantation. Postoperative heart biopsies from patients showed either minimal amylopectin deposits as long as 4.5 years following transplantation or a dramatic reduction in sequential biopsies from one patient who initially had dense myocardial deposits. Serious hepatic derangement is seen most commonly in types T and IV GSD. Liver transplantation cures the hepatic manifestations of both types. The extrahepatic deposition of abnormal glycogen appears not to be problematic in type I disease, and while potentially more threatening in type IV disease, may actually exhibit signs of regression after hepatic allografting

Translocation t(1;6)(p35;p25) in B-cell lymphoproliferative disorder with evolution to Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma

Case report of a translocation : Translocation t(1;6)(p35;p25) in B-cell lymphoproliferative disorder with evolution to Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma