A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives

The paper reports on a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). All together three cases of economic and energy developments were developed that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, the energy resource base, environmental implications from the local to the global level, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and non-fossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables to relate alternative near term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would however become significant only after the year 2020

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

International audienceThis communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an Europeanwide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The projectaimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement

Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases

These proceedings contain a selection of papers dealing with energy and mineral resources data bases, given at the Fourth IIASA Resources Conference. This conference in fact was organized at the crossing of three different evolutions: The first line of events was an IIASA series of Resources Conferences, aimed at a better understanding of world energy resources. The first conference, in 1975, was devoted to the Methods and Models for Assessing Energy Resources. The second one, in 1976, jointly organized with UNITAR, dealt with the Future Supply of Nature Made Petroleum and Gas; and the third, in 1977 in Moscow, covered Coal Resources (all of them published in the Pergamon Proceeding Series). The second evolution was a growing concern at IIASA, and equally at many other institutions as expressed during these earlier Resources Conferences, about resource data collection, handling, processing and utilization. To build models is one thing; to feed them with the appropriate data is another. Finally, it was clear that energy can be less and less isolated from other resources which are required for its development, such as water, land, human resources and, of course, mineral resources. Some new energy resources, such as solar, will be highly material intensive. This is just one example of the growing systems aspects between energy and minerals and/or materials. All of these concerns led to the organization of this conference. In fact, it was organized as a two-part conference, the first (more technical) part on energy and mineral resources data bases, documented in this publication; the second part on a related subject -- the systems aspect of energy and mineral resources -- with the objective to provide a forum to discuss the increasing interdependencies and interrelations between energy and mineral resources, but equally to put the papers dealing with data bases in the right perspective: namely, that these data bases should not be considered isolated from each other, but rather from a perspective of integrative (or systems) studies of energy and mineral resources. This aspect and its resulting requirements for data base development is discussed in a number of papers contained in these proceedings. Regarding these proceedings on Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases, it is clear that the last years have seen a lot of interesting developments. Maybe the most important was that the first data bases were developed with their own software. It was, of course, suited to the special needs or concepts of the developer (not necessarily to those of the user), but very specific. Today, many sophisticated Data Base Development Systems are commercially available, which permit us to concentrate more on the data itself than on their handling. Surprisingly, if we consider the enormous amount of studies which have been devoted during the last decade to the energy problem, only a few have dealt with energy resources -- although these will shape any energy future -- and still less to energy resource data bases. This apparent deficiency, as well as the time factor involved in design, development, implementation and continuous updating (i.e., the building and maintenance of such data bases is a long term activity), explains why we considered it useful to make the papers presented at this conference available to a broader public, despite a certain delay in the publication, which we sincerely regret. However, the data bases presented in these proceedings are practically all still actively pursued and accessible, and cover the most relevant developments in the field, so that the Editors hope that this publication constitutes a good contribution for assessing the state of development, and availability, of energy and mineral resources data bases. It should be considered less as an end point, than rather as a starting point

Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by IIASA and World Energy Council

The article reports on a study on Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond conducted jointly by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC). Three cases of economic and energy developments that sprawl into six scenarios of energy supply alternatives extending until the end of the 21st century are studied. The internal consistency of the scenarios was assessed with the help of formal energy models. The study took close account of world population prospects, economic growth, technological advance, financing requirements, and the future prospects of both fossil and non-fossil fuels and industries. Although no analysis can turn an uncertain future into a sure thing, the study identifies patterns that are robust across a purposely broad range of scenarios. The study also enables us to relate alternative near-term research and development, technology, economic, and environmental policies to the possible long-term divergence of energy systems structures. Due to the long lead times involved in the turnover of capital stock and infrastructures of the energy system, policies would need to be implemented now in order to initiate long-term structural changes in the energy system that would, however, become significant only after the year 2020

Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection

Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies

Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat?

Methane hydrates, ice-like compounds in which methane is held in crystalline cages formed by water molecules, are widespread in areas of permafrost such as the Arctic and in sediments on the continental margins. They are a potentially vast fossil fuel energy source but, at the same time, could be destabilized by changing pressure-temperature conditions due to climate change, potentially leading to strong positive carbon-climate feedbacks. To enhance our understanding of both the vulnerability of and the opportunity provided by methane hydrates, it is necessary (i) to conduct basic research that improves the highly uncertain estimates of hydrate occurrences and their response to changing environmental conditions, and (ii) to integrate the agendas of energy security and climate change which can provide an opportunity for methane hydrates -- in particular if combined with carbon capture and storage -- to be used as a 'bridge fuel' between carbon-intensive fossil energies and zero-emission energies. Taken one step further, exploitation of dissociating methane hydrates could even mitigate against escape of methane to the atmosphere. Despite these opportunities, so far, methane hydrates have been largely absent from energy and climate discussions, including global hydrocarbon assessments and the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Path dependence in energy systems and economic development

Energy systems are subject to strong and long-lived path dependence, owing to technological, infrastructural, institutional and behavioural lock-ins. Yet, with the prospect of providing accessible cheap energy to stimulate economic development and reduce poverty, governments often invest in large engineering projects and subsidy policies. Here, I argue that while these may achieve their objectives, they risk locking their economies onto energy-intensive pathways. Thus, particularly when economies are industrializing, and their energy systems are being transformed and are not yet fully locked-in, policymakers should take care before directing their economies onto energy-intensive pathways that are likely to be detrimental to their long-run prosperity