343 research outputs found
Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry
Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business
strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of
planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more
efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a
multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future
booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality
and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative
modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software
development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series
analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models
with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To
better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were
implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows
validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent
current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the
model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable
importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability.
Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation
variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to
evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can
further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute
percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at :
https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017
Isotopic signature in isolated south-western populations of European brown bear (Ursus arctos)
Stable isotope analysis of animal tissue samples is increasingly used to study the trophic ecology of target species. The isotopic signatures respond to the type of diet, but also to the environmental conditions of their habitat. In the case of omnivorous, seasonal or opportunistic feeding species, the interpretation of isotopic values is more complex, as it is largely determined by food selection, either due to individual choice or because of availability. We analysed C and N isotopes in brown bear (Ursus arctos) hair from four isolated populations of south-western Europe (Cantabrian, Pyrenees, Central Apennines and Alpine) accounting for the geographical and climatic differences among the four areas. We found inter-population differences in isotopic signatures that cannot be attributed to climatic differences alone, indicating that at least some bears from relatively higher altitude populations experiencing higher precipitation (Pyrenees) show a greater consumption of animal foods than those from lower altitudes (Cantabrian and Apennines). The quantification of isotopic niche space using Layman's metrics identified significant similarities between the Cantabrian and Central Apennine samples that markedly differ from the Pyrenean and Alpine. Our study provides a baseline to allow further comparisons in isotopic niche spaces in a broad ranged omnivorous mammal, whose European distribution requires further conservation attention especially for southern isolated populations
Dilation of the Giant Vortex State in a Mesoscopic Superconducting Loop
We have experimentally investigated the magnetisation of a mesoscopic
aluminum loop at temperatures well below the superconducting transition
temperature . The flux quantisation of the superconducting loop was
investigated with a -Hall magnetometer in magnetic field intensities
between . The magnetic field intensity periodicity observed in
the magnetization measurements is expected to take integer values of the
superconducting flux quanta . A closer inspection of the
periodicity, however, reveal a sub flux quantum shift. This fine structure we
interpret as a consequence of a so called giant vortex state nucleating towards
either the inner or the outer side of the loop. These findings are in agreement
with recent theoretical reports.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.
Flux-Induced Vortex in Mesoscopic Superconducting Loops
We predict the existence of a quantum vortex for an unusual situation. We
study the order parameter in doubly connected superconducting samples embedded
in a uniform magnetic field. For samples with perfect cylindrical symmetry, the
order parameter has been known for long and no vortices are present in the
linear regime. However, if the sample is not symmetric, there exist ranges of
the field for which the order parameter vanishes along a line, parallel to the
field. In many respects, the behavior of this line is qualitatively different
from that of the vortices encountered in type II superconductivity. For samples
with mirror symmetry, this flux-induced vortex appears at the thin side for
small fluxes and at the opposite side for large fluxes. We propose direct and
indirect experimental methods which could test our predictions.Comment: 6 pages, Latex, 4 figs., uses RevTex, extended to situations far from
cylindrical symmetr
A dual point description of mesoscopic superconductors
We present an analysis of the magnetic response of a mesoscopic
superconductor, i.e. a system of sizes comparable to the coherence length and
to the London penetration depth. Our approach is based on special properties of
the two dimensional Ginzburg-Landau equations, satisfied at the dual point
Closed expressions for the free energy and the
magnetization of the superconductor are derived. A perturbative analysis in the
vicinity of the dual point allows us to take into account vortex interactions,
using a new scaling result for the free energy. In order to characterize the
vortex/current interactions, we study vortex configurations that are out of
thermodynamical equilibrium. Our predictions agree with the results of recent
experiments performed on mesoscopic aluminium disks.Comment: revtex, 20 pages, 9 figure
A systemic model for differentiating school technology integration
School technology integration rarely begins with school or educator choice. It is part of a wider context where external and internal factors have direct influence on the goals and tools that are adopted over time. The objective of this study is to investigate the systemic conditions that contribute or inhibit the development of different activities by teachers making use of new media. We compiled a list of well-known conditions for technology integration success and mapped these in the historical and culturally bound perspective of activity theory (cultural historical activity theory). We conducted a multiple case study analysis of four schools, public and private. The results point to unique and distinctive scenarios even when homogeneity would be expected, reinforcing the argument that material conditions do not determine pedagogical outcomes nor do they determine changes in practice. Beyond this, the study proposes a methodology that can help elicit tensions in technology integration, pointing to avenues for school development
The Tug1 locus is essential for male fertility
Background: Several long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been shown to function as central components of molecular machines that play fundamental roles in biology. While the number of annotated lncRNAs in mammalian genomes has greatly expanded, their functions remain largely uncharacterized. This is compounded by the fact that identifying lncRNA loci that have robust and reproducible phenotypes when mutated has been a challenge. Results: We previously generated a cohort of 20 lncRNA loci knockout mice. Here, we extend our initial study and provide a more detailed analysis of the highly conserved lncRNA locus, Taurine Upregulated Gene 1 (Tug1). We report that Tug1 knockout male mice are sterile with complete penetrance due to a low sperm count and abnormal sperm morphology. Having identified a lncRNA loci with a robust phenotype, we wanted to determine which, if any, potential elements contained in the Tug1 genomic region (DNA, RNA, protein, or the act of transcription) have activity. Using engineered mouse models and cell-based assays, we provide evidence that the Tug1 locus harbors three distinct regulatory activities - two noncoding and one coding: (i) a cis DNA repressor that regulates many neighboring genes, (ii) a lncRNA that can regulate genes by a trans-based function, and finally (iii) Tug1 encodes an evolutionary conserved peptide that when overexpressed impacts mitochondrial membrane potential. Conclusions: Our results reveal an essential role for the Tug1 locus in male fertility and uncover three distinct regulatory activities in the Tug1 locus, thus highlighting the complexity present at lncRNA loci
Learning Mechanics and Game Mechanics Under the Perspective of Self-Determination Theory to Foster Motivation in Digital Game Based Learning
Background: Using digital games for educational purposes has been associated
with higher levels of motivation among learners of different educational
levels. However, the underlying psychological factors involved in digital game
based learning (DGBL) have been rarely analyzed considering self-determination
theory (SDT, Ryan \& Deci, 2000b); the relation of SDT with the flow experience
(Csikszentmihalyi, 1990) has neither been evaluated in the context of DGBL
An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research
Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way.
Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage.
Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag.
Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses
The what and where of adding channel noise to the Hodgkin-Huxley equations
One of the most celebrated successes in computational biology is the
Hodgkin-Huxley framework for modeling electrically active cells. This
framework, expressed through a set of differential equations, synthesizes the
impact of ionic currents on a cell's voltage -- and the highly nonlinear impact
of that voltage back on the currents themselves -- into the rapid push and pull
of the action potential. Latter studies confirmed that these cellular dynamics
are orchestrated by individual ion channels, whose conformational changes
regulate the conductance of each ionic current. Thus, kinetic equations
familiar from physical chemistry are the natural setting for describing
conductances; for small-to-moderate numbers of channels, these will predict
fluctuations in conductances and stochasticity in the resulting action
potentials. At first glance, the kinetic equations provide a far more complex
(and higher-dimensional) description than the original Hodgkin-Huxley
equations. This has prompted more than a decade of efforts to capture channel
fluctuations with noise terms added to the Hodgkin-Huxley equations. Many of
these approaches, while intuitively appealing, produce quantitative errors when
compared to kinetic equations; others, as only very recently demonstrated, are
both accurate and relatively simple. We review what works, what doesn't, and
why, seeking to build a bridge to well-established results for the
deterministic Hodgkin-Huxley equations. As such, we hope that this review will
speed emerging studies of how channel noise modulates electrophysiological
dynamics and function. We supply user-friendly Matlab simulation code of these
stochastic versions of the Hodgkin-Huxley equations on the ModelDB website
(accession number 138950) and
http://www.amath.washington.edu/~etsb/tutorials.html.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, review articl
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