Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

Isotopic signature in isolated south-western populations of European brown bear (Ursus arctos)

Stable isotope analysis of animal tissue samples is increasingly used to study the trophic ecology of target species. The isotopic signatures respond to the type of diet, but also to the environmental conditions of their habitat. In the case of omnivorous, seasonal or opportunistic feeding species, the interpretation of isotopic values is more complex, as it is largely determined by food selection, either due to individual choice or because of availability. We analysed C and N isotopes in brown bear (Ursus arctos) hair from four isolated populations of south-western Europe (Cantabrian, Pyrenees, Central Apennines and Alpine) accounting for the geographical and climatic differences among the four areas. We found inter-population differences in isotopic signatures that cannot be attributed to climatic differences alone, indicating that at least some bears from relatively higher altitude populations experiencing higher precipitation (Pyrenees) show a greater consumption of animal foods than those from lower altitudes (Cantabrian and Apennines). The quantification of isotopic niche space using Layman's metrics identified significant similarities between the Cantabrian and Central Apennine samples that markedly differ from the Pyrenean and Alpine. Our study provides a baseline to allow further comparisons in isotopic niche spaces in a broad ranged omnivorous mammal, whose European distribution requires further conservation attention especially for southern isolated populations

Dilation of the Giant Vortex State in a Mesoscopic Superconducting Loop

We have experimentally investigated the magnetisation of a mesoscopic aluminum loop at temperatures well below the superconducting transition temperature $T_{c}$. The flux quantisation of the superconducting loop was investigated with a $\mu$-Hall magnetometer in magnetic field intensities between $\pm 100 {Gauss}$. The magnetic field intensity periodicity observed in the magnetization measurements is expected to take integer values of the superconducting flux quanta $\Phi_{0}=h/2e$. A closer inspection of the periodicity, however, reveal a sub flux quantum shift. This fine structure we interpret as a consequence of a so called giant vortex state nucleating towards either the inner or the outer side of the loop. These findings are in agreement with recent theoretical reports.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Flux-Induced Vortex in Mesoscopic Superconducting Loops

We predict the existence of a quantum vortex for an unusual situation. We study the order parameter in doubly connected superconducting samples embedded in a uniform magnetic field. For samples with perfect cylindrical symmetry, the order parameter has been known for long and no vortices are present in the linear regime. However, if the sample is not symmetric, there exist ranges of the field for which the order parameter vanishes along a line, parallel to the field. In many respects, the behavior of this line is qualitatively different from that of the vortices encountered in type II superconductivity. For samples with mirror symmetry, this flux-induced vortex appears at the thin side for small fluxes and at the opposite side for large fluxes. We propose direct and indirect experimental methods which could test our predictions.Comment: 6 pages, Latex, 4 figs., uses RevTex, extended to situations far from cylindrical symmetr

A dual point description of mesoscopic superconductors

We present an analysis of the magnetic response of a mesoscopic superconductor, i.e. a system of sizes comparable to the coherence length and to the London penetration depth. Our approach is based on special properties of the two dimensional Ginzburg-Landau equations, satisfied at the dual point $(\kappa = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}).$ Closed expressions for the free energy and the magnetization of the superconductor are derived. A perturbative analysis in the vicinity of the dual point allows us to take into account vortex interactions, using a new scaling result for the free energy. In order to characterize the vortex/current interactions, we study vortex configurations that are out of thermodynamical equilibrium. Our predictions agree with the results of recent experiments performed on mesoscopic aluminium disks.Comment: revtex, 20 pages, 9 figure

A systemic model for differentiating school technology integration

School technology integration rarely begins with school or educator choice. It is part of a wider context where external and internal factors have direct influence on the goals and tools that are adopted over time. The objective of this study is to investigate the systemic conditions that contribute or inhibit the development of different activities by teachers making use of new media. We compiled a list of well-known conditions for technology integration success and mapped these in the historical and culturally bound perspective of activity theory (cultural historical activity theory). We conducted a multiple case study analysis of four schools, public and private. The results point to unique and distinctive scenarios even when homogeneity would be expected, reinforcing the argument that material conditions do not determine pedagogical outcomes nor do they determine changes in practice. Beyond this, the study proposes a methodology that can help elicit tensions in technology integration, pointing to avenues for school development

The Tug1 locus is essential for male fertility

Background: Several long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been shown to function as central components of molecular machines that play fundamental roles in biology. While the number of annotated lncRNAs in mammalian genomes has greatly expanded, their functions remain largely uncharacterized. This is compounded by the fact that identifying lncRNA loci that have robust and reproducible phenotypes when mutated has been a challenge. Results: We previously generated a cohort of 20 lncRNA loci knockout mice. Here, we extend our initial study and provide a more detailed analysis of the highly conserved lncRNA locus, Taurine Upregulated Gene 1 (Tug1). We report that Tug1 knockout male mice are sterile with complete penetrance due to a low sperm count and abnormal sperm morphology. Having identified a lncRNA loci with a robust phenotype, we wanted to determine which, if any, potential elements contained in the Tug1 genomic region (DNA, RNA, protein, or the act of transcription) have activity. Using engineered mouse models and cell-based assays, we provide evidence that the Tug1 locus harbors three distinct regulatory activities - two noncoding and one coding: (i) a cis DNA repressor that regulates many neighboring genes, (ii) a lncRNA that can regulate genes by a trans-based function, and finally (iii) Tug1 encodes an evolutionary conserved peptide that when overexpressed impacts mitochondrial membrane potential. Conclusions: Our results reveal an essential role for the Tug1 locus in male fertility and uncover three distinct regulatory activities in the Tug1 locus, thus highlighting the complexity present at lncRNA loci

Learning Mechanics and Game Mechanics Under the Perspective of Self-Determination Theory to Foster Motivation in Digital Game Based Learning

Background: Using digital games for educational purposes has been associated with higher levels of motivation among learners of different educational levels. However, the underlying psychological factors involved in digital game based learning (DGBL) have been rarely analyzed considering self-determination theory (SDT, Ryan \& Deci, 2000b); the relation of SDT with the flow experience (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990) has neither been evaluated in the context of DGBL

An Information Theory Approach to Hypothesis Testing in Criminological Research

Background: This research demonstrates how the Akaike information criterion (AIC) can be an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing in selecting best fitting models. It presents an example to illustrate how AIC can be used in this way. Methods: Using data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, we test models of place-based predictor variables on street robbery and commercial robbery. We build models to balance explanatory power and parsimony. Measures include the presence of different kinds of businesses, together with selected age groups and social disadvantage. Results: Models including place-based measures of land use emerged as the best models among the set of tested models. These were superior to models that included measures of age and socioeconomic status. The best models for commercial and street robbery include three measures of ordinary businesses, liquor stores, and spatial lag. Conclusions: Models based on information theory offer a useful alternative to significance testing when a strong theoretical framework guides the selection of model sets. Theoretically relevant ‘ordinary businesses’ have a greater influence on robbery than socioeconomic variables and most measures of discretionary businesses

The what and where of adding channel noise to the Hodgkin-Huxley equations

One of the most celebrated successes in computational biology is the Hodgkin-Huxley framework for modeling electrically active cells. This framework, expressed through a set of differential equations, synthesizes the impact of ionic currents on a cell's voltage -- and the highly nonlinear impact of that voltage back on the currents themselves -- into the rapid push and pull of the action potential. Latter studies confirmed that these cellular dynamics are orchestrated by individual ion channels, whose conformational changes regulate the conductance of each ionic current. Thus, kinetic equations familiar from physical chemistry are the natural setting for describing conductances; for small-to-moderate numbers of channels, these will predict fluctuations in conductances and stochasticity in the resulting action potentials. At first glance, the kinetic equations provide a far more complex (and higher-dimensional) description than the original Hodgkin-Huxley equations. This has prompted more than a decade of efforts to capture channel fluctuations with noise terms added to the Hodgkin-Huxley equations. Many of these approaches, while intuitively appealing, produce quantitative errors when compared to kinetic equations; others, as only very recently demonstrated, are both accurate and relatively simple. We review what works, what doesn't, and why, seeking to build a bridge to well-established results for the deterministic Hodgkin-Huxley equations. As such, we hope that this review will speed emerging studies of how channel noise modulates electrophysiological dynamics and function. We supply user-friendly Matlab simulation code of these stochastic versions of the Hodgkin-Huxley equations on the ModelDB website (accession number 138950) and http://www.amath.washington.edu/~etsb/tutorials.html.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, review articl