Supporting the externalisation of thinking in criminal intelligence analysis

At the end of the criminal intelligence analysis process there are relatively well established and understood approaches to explicit externalisation and representation of thought that include theories of argumentation, narrative and hybrid approaches that include both of these. However the focus of this paper is on the little understood area of how to support users in the process of arriving at such representations from an initial starting point where little is given. The work is based on theoretical considerations and some initial studies with end users. In focusing on process we discuss the requirements of fluidity and rigor and how to gain traction in investigations, the processes of thinking involved including abductive, deductive and inductive reasoning, how users may use thematic sorting in early stages of investigation and how tactile reasoning may be used to externalize and facilitate reasoning in a productive way. In the conclusion section we discuss the issues raised in this work and directions for future work

How analysts think: how do criminal intelligence analysts recognise and manage significant information?

The Criminal Intelligence Analyst's role is to create exhibits which are relevant, accurate and unbiased. Exhibits can be used as input to assist decision-making in intelligence-led policing. It may also be used as evidence in a court of law. The aim of this study was to determine how Criminal Intelligence Analysts recognise and manage significant information as a method to determine what is relevant for their attention and for the creation of exhibits. This in turn may provide guidance on how to design and incorporate loose and flexible argumentation schemas into sense-making software. The objective is to be informed on how to design software, which affords Criminal Intelligence Analysts with the ability to effortlessly determine the relevance of information, which subsequently could assist with the process of assessing and defending the quality of exhibits

How analysts think: navigating uncertainty – aspirations, considerations and strategies

While there has been considerable research in understanding the process of sense making in criminal intelligence analysis as well as the formulation of arguments in the domain of law, there remain gaps in our understanding of how to move seamlessly from the fluidity of the sense making activities to the rigour of argumentation construction. This matter is complicated further with high uncertainty which accompanies sense making and which propagates through to the rigour that accompanies argumentation. This paper attempts to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts navigate uncertainty from fluidity to rigour constructs and outlines some of the considerations and strategies deployed by the Criminal Intelligence Analyst to reach, or increase, certainty at a given point in time during the analysis process. This paper concludes by proposing preliminary suggestions with the aim to narrow the gaps in this journey from fluidity to rigour, at least, marginall

How can we design tactile interactive software for argument construction in criminal intelligence analysis?

Argumentation construction refers to the different ways in which people can formulate a well defined argument that can withstand scrutiny in a court of law. Different domains have enhanced the research on argumentation construction, but each enhancement relates either to ‘evidence’ or to the ‘relevance of evidence’, thus making these elements the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. By attempting to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts understand and manage these corner stone elements, as well as how these elements differ to the law domain counterparts, we aspire to formulate design guidelines for a software program that is tailored to how Criminal Intelligence Analysts think and argue during sense-making activities. This paper outlines the relevant literature and why the researchers consider ‘evidence’ and the ‘relevance of evidence’ as the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. The results section summarises the outcomes of two qualitative studies. The first study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts perceive and manage uncertain information and how this eventually leads to the creation of evidence (as exhibits) for a court of law. The second study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts know which information is relevant for the task at hand, especially when uncertainty is high. The results of the two studies still need to be combined and put into practise (as design guidelines) to test the effectiveness and validity of the results obtained in the two studies. This is listed as future work in the conclusion section

A simulation study to compare reference and other priors in the case of a standard univariate Student t-distribution

In this paper, reference and probability-matching priors are derived for the univariate Student t-distribution. These priors generally lead to procedures with properties frequentists can relate to while still retaining Bayes validity. The priors are tested by performing simulation studies. The focus is on the relative mean squared error from the posterior median and on the frequentist coverage of the 95% credibility intervals for a sample of size n = 30. Average interval lengths of the credibility intervals as well as the modes of the interval lengths based on 2 000 simulations are also considered. The performance of the priors is also tested on real data, namely daily logarithmic returns of IBM stocks

Genera of phytopathogenic fungi: GOPHY 3

This paper represents the third contribution in the Genera of Phytopathogenic Fungi (GOPHY) series. The series provides morphological descriptions, information about the pathology, distribution, hosts and disease symptoms for the treated genera, as well as primary and secondary DNA barcodes for the currently accepted species included in these. This third paper in the GOPHY series treats 21 genera of phytopathogenic fungi and their relatives including: Allophoma, Alternaria, Brunneosphaerella, Elsinoe, Exserohilum, Neosetophoma, Neostagonospora, Nothophoma, Parastagonospora, Phaeosphaeriopsis, Pleiocarpon, Pyrenophora, Ramichloridium, Seifertia, Seiridium, Septoriella, Setophoma, Stagonosporopsis, Stemphylium, Tubakia and Zasmidium. This study includes three new genera, 42 new species, 23 new combinations, four new names, and three typifications of older names

Further evidence of misclassification of the injury deaths in South Africa: When will the barriers to accurate injury death statistics be removed?

Background. Contrary to the World Health Organization’s internationally recommended medical certificate of cause of death, the South African (SA) death notification form (DNF) does not allow for the reporting of the manner of death to permit accurate coding of external causes of injury deaths. Objectives. To describe the injury cause-of-death profile from forensic pathology records collected for the National Cause-of-Death Validation (NCoDV) Project and compare it with profiles from other sources of injury mortality data. In particular, the recording of firearm use in homicides is compared between sources. Methods. The NCoDV Project was a cross-sectional study of deaths that occurred during a fixed period in 2017 and 2018, from a nationally representative sample of 27 health subdistricts in SA. Trained fieldworkers scanned forensic records for all deaths investigated at the forensic mortuaries serving the sampled subdistricts during the study period. Forensic practitioners reviewed the records and completed a medical certificate of cause of death for each decedent. Causes of death were coded to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10), using Iris automated coding software. Cause-specific mortality fractions for injury deaths were compared with Injury Mortality Survey 2017 (IMS 2017) and Statistics South Africa 2017 (Stats SA 2017) datasets. The cause profile for all firearm-related deaths was compared between the three datasets. Results. A total of 5 315 records were available for analysis. Males accounted for 77.6% of cases, and most decedents were aged between 25 and 44 years. Homicide was the leading cause of death (34.7%), followed by transport injuries (32.6%) and suicide (14.7%). This injury cause profile was similar to IMS 2017 but differed markedly from the official statistics, which showed markedly lower proportions of these three causes (15.0%, 11.6% and 0.7%, respectively), and a much higher proportion of other unintentional causes. Investigation of firearm-related deaths revealed that most were homicides in NCoDV 2017/18 (88.5%) and IMS 2017 (93.1%), while in the Stats SA 2017 data, 98.7% of firearm deaths were classified as accidental. Approximately 7% of firearm-related deaths were suicides in NCoDV 2017/18 and IMS 2017, with only 0.3% in Stats SA 2017. Conclusion. The official cause-of-death data for injuries in SA in 2017 differed substantially from findings from the NCoDV 2017/18 study and IMS 2017. Accurate data sources would ensure that public health interventions are designed to reduce the high injury burden. Inclusion of the manner of death on the DNF, as is recommended internationally, is critically important to enable more accurate, reliable and valid reporting of the injury profile

Finding needles in haystacks: linking scientific names, reference specimens and molecular data for Fungi

DNA phylogenetic comparisons have shown that morphology-based species recognition often underestimates fungal diversity. Therefore, the need for accurate DNA sequence data, tied to both correct taxonomic names and clearly annotated specimen data, has never been greater. Furthermore, the growing number of molecular ecology and microbiome projects using high-throughput sequencing require fast and effective methods for en masse species assignments. In this article, we focus on selecting and re-annotating a set of marker reference sequences that represent each currently accepted order of Fungi. The particular focus is on sequences from the internal transcribed spacer region in the nuclear ribosomal cistron, derived from type specimens and/or ex-type cultures. Re-annotated and verified sequences were deposited in a curated public database at the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), namely the RefSeq Targeted Loci (RTL) database, and will be visible during routine sequence similarity searches with NR_prefixed accession numbers. A set of standards and protocols is proposed to improve the data quality of new sequences, and we suggest how type and other reference sequences can be used to improve identification of Fungi

Fungal Planet description sheets: 69–91

Novel species of microfungi described in the present study include the following from Australia: Bagadiella victoriae and Bagadiella koalae on Eucalyptus spp., Catenulostroma eucalyptorum on Eucalyptus laevopinea, Cercospora eremochloae on Eremochloa bimaculata, Devriesia queenslandica on Scaevola taccada, Diaporthe musigena on Musa sp., Diaporthe acaciigena on Acacia retinodes, Leptoxyphium kurandae on Eucalyptus sp., Neofusicoccum grevilleae on Grevillea aurea, Phytophthora fluvialis from water in native bushland, Pseudocercospora cyathicola on Cyathea australis, and Teratosphaeria mareebensis on Eucalyptus sp. Other species include Passalora leptophlebiae on Eucalyptus leptophlebia (Brazil), Exophiala tremulae on Populus tremuloides and Dictyosporium stellatum from submerged wood (Canada), Mycosphaerella valgourgensis on Yucca sp. (France), Sclerostagonospora cycadis on Cycas revoluta (Japan), Rachicladosporium pini on Pinus monophylla (Netherlands), Mycosphaerella wachendorfiae on Wachendorfia thyrsifolia and Diaporthe rhusicola on Rhus pendulina (South Africa). Novel genera of hyphomycetes include Noosia banksiae on Banksia aemula (Australia), Utrechtiana cibiessia on Phragmites australis (Netherlands), and Funbolia dimorpha on blackened stem bark of an unidentified tree (USA). Morphological and culture characteristics along with ITS DNA barcodes are provided for all taxa