Federating distributed clinical data for the prediction of adverse hypotensive events

The ability to predict adverse hypotensive events, where a patient's arterial blood pressure drops to abnormally low (and dangerous) levels, would be of major benefit to the fields of primary and secondary health care, and especially to the traumatic brain injury domain. A wealth of data exist in health care systems providing information on the major health indicators of patients in hospitals (blood pressure, temperature, heart rate, etc.). It is believed that if enough of these data could be drawn together and analysed in a systematic way, then a system could be built that will trigger an alarm predicting the onset of a hypotensive event over a useful time scale, e.g. half an hour in advance. In such circumstances, avoidance measures can be taken to prevent such events arising. This is the basis for the Avert-IT project (http://www.avert-it.org), a collaborative EU-funded project involving the construction of a hypotension alarm system exploiting Bayesian neural networks using techniques of data federation to bring together the relevant information for study and system development

High Bone Mass is associated with bone-forming features of osteoarthritis in non-weight bearing joints independent of body mass index

Objectives: High Bone Mass (HBM) is associated with (a) radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA), partly mediated by increased BMI, and (b) pelvic enthesophytes and hip osteophytes, suggestive of a bone-forming phenotype. We aimed to establish whether HBM is associated with radiographic features of OA in non weight-bearing (hand) joints, and whether such OA demonstrates a bone-forming phenotype. Methods: HBM cases (BMD Z-scores ≥+3.2) were compared with family controls. A blinded assessor graded all PA hand radiographs for: osteophytes (0-3), joint space narrowing (JSN)(0-3), subchondral sclerosis (0-1), at the index Distal Interphalangeal Joint (DIPJ) and 1st Carpometacarpal Joint (CMCJ), using an established atlas. Analyses used a random effects logistic regression model, adjusting a priori for age and gender. Mediating roles of BMI and bone turnover markers (BTMs) were explored by further adjustment. Results: 314 HBM cases (mean age 61.1years, 74% female) and 183 controls (54.3years, 46% female) were included. Osteophytes (grade≥1) were more common in HBM (DIPJ: 67% vs. 45%, CMCJ: 69% vs. 50%), with adjusted OR [95% CI] 1.82 [1.11, 2.97], p=0.017 and 1.89 [1.19, 3.01], p=0.007 respectively; no differences were seen in JSN. Further adjustment for BMI failed to attenuate ORs for osteophytes in HBM cases vs. controls; DIPJ 1.72 [1.05, 2.83], p=0.032, CMCJ 1.76 [1.00, 3.06], p=0.049. Adjustment for BTMs (concentrations lower amongst HBM cases) did not attenuate ORs. Conclusions: HBM is positively associated with OA in non weight-bearing joints, independent of BMI. HBMassociated OA is characterised by osteophytes, consistent with a bone-forming phenotype, rather than JSN reflecting cartilage loss. Systemic factors (e.g. genetic architecture) which govern HBM may also increase bone-forming OA risk

Role of widows in the heterosexual transmission of HIV in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, 1998–2003

BACKGROUND: AIDS is the main driver of young widowhood in southern Africa. METHODS: The demographic characteristics of widows, their reported risk behaviours and the prevalence of HIV were examined by analysing a longitudinal population-based cohort of men and women aged 15-54 years in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. The results from statistical analyses were used to construct a mathematical simulation model with the aim of estimating the contribution of widow behaviour to heterosexual HIV transmission. RESULTS: 413 (11.4%) sexually experienced women and 31 (1.2%) sexually experienced men were reported to be widowed at the time of follow-up. The prevalence of HIV was exceptionally high among both widows (61%) and widowers (male widows) (54%). Widows were more likely to have high rates of partner change and engage in a pattern of transactional sex than married women. Widowers took partners who were a median of 10 years younger than themselves. Mathematical model simulations of different scenarios of sexual behaviour of widows suggested that the sexual activity of widow(er)s may underlie 8-17% of new HIV infections over a 20-year period. CONCLUSIONS: This combined statistical analysis and model simulation suggest that widowhood plays an important role in the transmission of HIV in this rural Zimbabwean population. High-risk partnerships may be formed when widowed men and women reconnect to the sexual network

Using Visual Modeling Tools to Reach Students with Learning Disabilities

Teachers can use electronic visual modeling tools to help students with learning disabilities visualize and understand mathematical concepts such as proportions, dilations, and scale factors. In this article, the authors describe strategies for using static and dynamic visuals for supporting the memory and processing of students with learning disabilities as they engage in challenging mathematics

Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality: a validation study in Tanzania and Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is currently the only option for obtaining cause of death information in most populations with a widespread HIV/AIDS epidemic. METHODS: With the use of a data-driven algorithm, a set of criteria for classifying AIDS mortality was trained. Data from two longitudinal community studies in Tanzania and Zimbabwe were used, both of which have collected information on the HIV status of the population over a prolonged period and maintained a demographic surveillance system that collects information on cause of death through verbal autopsy. The algorithm was then tested in different times (two phases of the Zimbabwe study) and different places (Tanzania and Zimbabwe). RESULTS: The trained algorithm, including nine signs and symptoms, performed consistently based on sensitivity and specificity on verbal autopsy data for deaths in 15-44-year-olds from Zimbabwe phase I (sensitivity 79%; specificity 79%), phase II (sensitivity 83%; specificity 75%) and Tanzania (sensitivity 75%; specificity 74%) studies. The sensitivity dropped markedly for classifying deaths in 45-59-year-olds. CONCLUSIONS: Verbal autopsy can consistently measure AIDS mortality with a set of nine criteria. Surveillance should focus on deaths that occur in the 15-44-year age group for which the method performs reliably. Addition of a handful of questions related to opportunistic infections would enable other widely used verbal autopsy tools to apply this validated method in areas for which HIV testing and hospital records are unavailable or incomplete

It's harder for boys? Children's representations of their HIV/AIDS-affected peers in Zimbabwe

This study examines whether children in rural Zimbabwe have differing representations of their HIV/AIDS-affected peers based on the gender of those peers. A group of 128 children (58 boys, 70 girls) aged 10–14 participated in a draw-and-write exercise, in which they were asked to tell the story of either an HIV/AIDS-affected girl child, or an HIV/AIDS-affected boy child. Stories were inductively thematically coded, and then a post hoc statistical analysis was conducted to see if there were differences in the themes that emerged in stories about girls versus stories about boys. The results showed that boys were more often depicted as materially deprived, without adult and teacher support, and heavily burdened with household duties. Further research is needed to determine whether the perceptions of the children in this study point to a series of overlooked challenges facing HIV/AIDS-affected boys, or to a culture of gender inequality facing HIV/AIDS-affected girls – which pays more attention to male suffering than to female suffering

The rebellious man: next-of-kin accounts of the death of a male relative on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa

The HIV response is hampered by many obstacles to progression along the HIV care cascade, with men, in particular, experiencing different forms of disruption. One group of men, whose stories remain untold, are those who have succumbed to HIV-related illness. In this paper, we explore how next-of-kin account for the death of a male relative. We conducted 26 qualitative after-death interviews with family members of male PLHIV who had recently died from HIV in health and demographic surveillance sites in Malawi, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe and South Africa. The next-of-kin expressed frustration about the defiance of their male relative to disclose his HIV status and ask for support, and attributed this to shame, fear and a lack of self-acceptance of HIV diagnosis. Next-of-kin painted a picture of their male relative as rebellious. Some claimed that their deceased relative deliberately ignored instructions received by the health worker. Others described their male relatives as unable to maintain caring relationships that would avail day-to-day treatment partners, and give purpose to their lives. Through these accounts, next-of-kin vocalised the perceived rebellious behaviour of these men, and in the process of doing so neutralised their responsibility for the premature death of their relative

Childcare, choice and social class: Caring for young children in the UK

This paper draws on the results of two qualitative research projects examining parental engagements with the childcare market in the UK. Both projects are located in the same two London localities. One project focuses on professional middle class parents, and the other on working class families, and we discuss the key importance of social class in shaping parents' differential engagement with the childcare market, and their understandings of the role childcare plays in their children's lives. We identify and discuss the different "circuits" of care (Ball et al 1995) available to and used by families living physically close to each other, but in social class terms living in different worlds. We also consider parents' relationships with carers, and their social networks. We conclude that in order to fully understand childcare policies and practices and families' experiences of care, an analysis which encompasses social class and the workings of the childcare market is needed

A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?

Daniel Halperin and colleagues examine reasons for the remarkable decline in HIV in Zimbabwe, in the context of severe social, political, and economic disruption