Saturn Forms by Core Accretion in 3.4 Myr

We present two new in situ core accretion simulations of Saturn with planet formation timescales of 3.37 Myr (model S0) and 3.48 Myr (model S1), consistent with observed protostellar disk lifetimes. In model S0, we assume rapid grain settling reduces opacity due to grains from full interstellar values (Podolak 2003). In model S1, we do not invoke grain settling, instead assigning full interstellar opacities to grains in the envelope. Surprisingly, the two models produce nearly identical formation timescales and core/atmosphere mass ratios. We therefore observe a new manifestation of core accretion theory: at large heliocentric distances, the solid core growth rate (limited by Keplerian orbital velocity) controls the planet formation timescale. We argue that this paradigm should apply to Uranus and Neptune as well.Comment: 4 pages, including 1 figure, submitted to ApJ Letter

The Economics of Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in the Lake States: An Overview

Economic effects of spruce budworm outbreaks in the Lake States were examined. The recent outbreak caused spruce and fir mortality on 420 thousand ha (I.OS million acres) of commercial forest land in the Lake States. Two models of Lake States spruce-fir markets were developed. A Static Economic Model established the nature of the Lake States spruce-fir market and a Comparative Static Model examined changes brought about by spruce budworm outbreaks. Outbreaks result in short-run supply shifts which probably decrease total revenue to stumpage owners but do not affect demand. The magnitude of long-run impacts were dependent on developing Lake States markets and forest management techniques. Further research is necessary on the value of short-run losses to stumpage owners so that the costs of forest management can be compared with outbreak losses. Long-run shifts in demand can be facilitated by attracting new industry to the area, developing new markets for the spruce-fir resource, and demonstrating that the spruce-fir resource can provide a continuous fiber source in the future. These shifts would provide the price incentives that land managers require to undertake intensive forest management. Research on the development of new markets for the spruce-fir resource is needed. As markets develop, the long-run impacts become less severe. Technology transfer programs already exist to aid land managers in developing management strategies to increase yields of spruce-fir and minimize outbreak impact

An Integrated Analysis of Radial Velocities in Planet Searches

We discuss a Bayesian approach to the analysis of radial velocities in planet searches. We use a combination of exact and approximate analytic and numerical techniques to efficiently evaluate chi-squared for multiple values of orbital parameters, and to carry out the marginalization integrals for a single planet including the possibility of a long term trend. The result is a robust algorithm that is rapid enough for use in real time analysis that outputs constraints on orbital parameters and false alarm probabilities for the planet and long term trend. The constraints on parameters and odds ratio that we derive compare well with previous calculations based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and we compare our results with other techniques for estimating false alarm probabilities and errors in derived orbital parameters. False alarm probabilities from the Bayesian analysis are systematically higher than frequentist false alarm probabilities, due to the different accounting of the number of trials. We show that upper limits on the velocity amplitude derived for circular orbits are a good estimate of the upper limit on the amplitude of eccentric orbits for eccentricities less than about 0.5.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, to appear in MNRA

Identifying Very Metal-Rich Stars with Low-Resolution Spectra: Finding Planet-Search Targets

We present empirical calibrations that estimate stellar metallicity, effective temperature and surface gravity as a function of Lick/IDS indices. These calibrations have been derived from a training set of 261 stars for which (1) high-precision measurements of [Fe/H], T_eff and log g have been made using spectral-synthesis analysis of HIRES spectra, and (2) Lick indices have also been measured. Our [Fe/H] calibration, which has precision 0.07 dex, has identified a number of bright (V < 9) metal-rich stars which are now being screened for hot Jupiter-type planets. Using the Yonsei-Yale stellar models, we show that the calibrations provide distance estimates accurate to 20% for nearby stars. This paper outlines the second tier of the screening of planet-search targets by the N2K Consortium, a project designed to identify the stars most likely to harbor extrasolar planets. Discoveries by the N2K Consortium include the transiting hot Saturn HD 149026 b (Sato et al. 2005, astro-ph/0507009) and HD 88133 b (Fischer et al. 2005). See Ammons et al. (2005, In Press) for a description of the first tier of N2K metallicity screening, calibrations using broadband photometry.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Ion bombardment experiments suggesting an origin for organic particles in pre-cometary and cometary ices

During the Giotto and Vega encounters with Comet Halley both organic particles called CHON and energetic ions were detected. The acceleration of ions to hundreds of keV in the vicinity of the bow shock and near the nucleus may be a demonstration of a situation occurring in the early solar system (perhaps during the T Tauri stage) that led to the formation of organic particles only now released. Utilizing a Van de Graaff accelerator and a target chamber having cryogenic and mass spectrometer capabilities, frozen gases were bombarded at 10 K with 175 keV protons with the result that fluffy solid material remains after sublimation of the ice. Initial experiments were carried out with a gas mixture in parts of 170 carbon monoxide, 170 argon, 25 water, 20 nitrogen, and 15 methane formulated to reflect an interstellar composition in experiments involving the freezing out of the products of a plasma. The plasma experiments resulted in a varnish-like film residue that exhibited luminescence when excited with ultraviolet radiation, while the ion bombardment created particulate material that was not luminescent

Photon-number-resolution with sub-30-ps timing using multi-element superconducting nanowire single photon detectors

A photon-number-resolving detector based on a four-element superconducting nanowire single photon detector is demonstrated to have sub-30-ps resolution in measuring the arrival time of individual photons. This detector can be used to characterize the photon statistics of non-pulsed light sources and to mitigate dead-time effects in high-speed photon counting applications. Furthermore, a 25% system detection efficiency at 1550 nm was demonstrated, making the detector useful for both low-flux source characterization and high-speed photon-counting and quantum communication applications. The design, fabrication and testing of this detector are described, and a comparison between the measured and theoretical performance is presented.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

A role for the Perlman syndrome exonuclease Dis3l2 in the Lin28-let-7 pathway

The pluripotency factor Lin28 blocks the expression of let-7 microRNAs (miRNAs) in undifferentiated cells during development and functions as an oncogene in a subset of cancers1. Lin28 binds to let-7 precursor RNAs and recruits 3′ terminal uridylyl transferases (TUTases) to selectively inhibit let-7 biogenesis2–4. Uridylated pre-let-7 is refractory to processing by Dicer and is rapidly degraded by an unknown ribonuclease5. Here we identify Dis3l2 as the 3′-5′ exonuclease responsible for the decay of uridylated pre-let-7. Biochemical reconstitution assays reveal that 3′ oligouridylation stimulates Dis3l2 activity in vitro, and knockdown of Dis3l2 in mouse embryonic stem cells leads to the stabilization of pre-let-7. Our study establishes 3′ oligouridylation as an RNA decay signal for Dis3l2 and identifies the first physiological RNA substrate of this novel exonuclease that is mutated in the Perlman syndrome of fetal overgrowth and predisposition to Wilms’ tumor6

Development of the Orion Crew Module Static Aerodynamic Database

This work describes the process of developing the nominal static aerodynamic coefficients and associated uncertainties for the Orion Crew Module for Mach 8 and below. The database was developed from wind tunnel test data and computational simulations of the smooth Crew Module geometry, with no asymmetries or protuberances. The database covers the full range of Reynolds numbers seen in both entry and ascent abort scenarios. The basic uncertainties were developed as functions of Mach number and total angle of attack from variations in the primary data as well as computations at lower Reynolds numbers, on the baseline geometry, and using different flow solvers. The resulting aerodynamic database represents the Crew Exploration Vehicle Aerosciences Project's best estimate of the nominal aerodynamics for the current Crew Module vehicle

Treatment utilization and outcomes in elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma: A review of the National Cancer Database

For elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, therapeutic approaches and outcomes in a modern cohort are not well characterized. Patients ≥70 years old with clinical stage II and III esophageal cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 were identified from the National Cancer Database and stratified based on treatment type. Variables associated with treatment utilization were evaluated using logistic regression and survival evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Propensity matching (1:1) was performed to help account for selection bias. A total of 21,593 patients were identified. Median and maximum ages were 77 and 90, respectively. Treatment included palliative therapy (24.3%), chemoradiation (37.1%), trimodality therapy (10.0%), esophagectomy alone (5.6%), or no therapy (12.9%). Age ≥80 (OR 0.73), female gender (OR 0.81), Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score ≥2 (OR 0.82), and high-volume centers (OR 0.83) were associated with a decreased likelihood of palliative therapy versus no treatment. Age ≥80 (OR 0.79) and Clinical Stage III (OR 0.33) were associated with a decreased likelihood, while adenocarcinoma histology (OR 1.33) and nonacademic cancer centers (OR 3.9), an increased likelihood of esophagectomy alone compared to definitive chemoradiation. Age ≥80 (OR 0.15), female gender (OR 0.80), and non-Caucasian race (OR 0.63) were associated with a decreased likelihood, while adenocarcinoma histology (OR 2.10) and high-volume centers (OR 2.34), an increased likelihood of trimodality therapy compared to definitive chemoradiation. Each treatment type demonstrated improved survival compared to no therapy: palliative treatment (HR 0.49) to trimodality therapy (HR 0.25) with significance between all groups. Any therapy, including palliative care, was associated with improved survival; however, subsets of elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer are less likely to receive aggressive therapy. Care should be taken to not unnecessarily deprive these individuals of treatment that may improve survival