A systems analysis of complex software product development dynamics and methods

Includes bibliographical references (p. 64-65).Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2007.Software development projects and products have long shouldered a reputation for missed deadlines, blown budgets, and low quality. Unfortunately, this negative reputation appears to be supported by more than just anecdotal evidence; quoting an industry study', respected software development expert and author Steve McConnell reports in his book Professional Software Development" that "Roughly 25 percent of all projects fail outright, and the typical project is 100 percent over budget at the point it's canceled." What's more, notes McConnell, "Fifty percent of projects are delivered late, over-budget, or with less functionality than desired." Exactly why software development projects and products have historically performed so poorly and with arguably little if any improvement over the past 40 years, however, is a subject on which there is less agreement. While blame often aligns along functional (product marketing and sales) versus technical (software development) lines, the increasing popularity of different and often contradictory software development methodologies seems to suggest that no real consensus exists within the software development community itself. The goal of this thesis is twofold: 1. To describe a set of key factors to consider when analyzing software processes 2. To outline an organizational framework that is optimized for implementing and managing software development practicesby Gregory B. Russell.S.M

Ambient Temperature and Biomarkers of Heart Failure: A Repeated Measures Analysis

Background: Extreme temperatures have been associated with hospitalization and death among individuals with heart failure, but few studies have explored the underlying mechanisms. Objectives: We hypothesized that outdoor temperature in the Boston, Massachusetts, area (1- to 4-day moving averages) would be associated with higher levels of biomarkers of inflammation and myocyte injury in a repeated-measures study of individuals with stable heart failure. Methods: We analyzed data from a completed clinical trial that randomized 100 patients to 12 weeks of tai chi classes or to time-matched education control. B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), C-reactive protein (CRP), and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) were measured at baseline, 6 weeks, and 12 weeks. Endothelin-1 was measured at baseline and 12 weeks. We used fixed effects models to evaluate associations with measures of temperature that were adjusted for time-varying covariates. Results: Higher apparent temperature was associated with higher levels of BNP beginning with 2-day moving averages and reached statistical significance for 3- and 4-day moving averages. CRP results followed a similar pattern but were delayed by 1 day. A 5°C change in 3- and 4-day moving averages of apparent temperature was associated with 11.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 22.5; :p = 0.03) and 11.4% (95% CI: 1.2, 22.5; p = 0.03) higher BNP. A 5°C change in the 4-day moving average of apparent temperature was associated with 21.6% (95% CI: 2.5, 44.2; p = 0.03) higher CRP. No clear associations with TNF or endothelin-1 were observed. Conclusions: Among patients undergoing treatment for heart failure, we observed positive associations between temperature and both BNP and CRP—predictors of heart failure prognosis and severity

Magnetour: Surfing Planetary Systems on Electromagnetic and Multi-Body Gravity Fields

In this NIAC Phase One study, we propose a new mission concept, named Magnetour, to facilitate the exploration of outer planet systems and address both power and propulsion challenges. Our approach would enable a single spacecraft to orbit and travel between multiple moons of an outer planet, with no propellant required. Our approach would enable a single spacecraft to orbit and travel between multiple moons of an outer planet, with no propellant nor onboard power source required. To achieve this free-lunch _Grand Tour', we exploit the unexplored combination of magnetic and multi-body gravitational fields of planetary systems, with a unique focus on using a bare tether for power and propulsion. The main objective of the study is to develop this conceptually novel mission architecture, explore its design space, and investigate its feasibility and applicability to enhance the exploration of planetary systems within a 10-year timeframe. Propellantless propulsion technology offers enormous potential to transform the way NASA conducts outer planet missions. We hope to demonstrate that our free-lunch tour concept can replace heavy, costly, traditional chemical-based missions and can open up a new variety of trajectories around outer planets. Leveraging the powerful magnetic and multi-body gravity fields of planetary systems to travel freely among planetary moons would allow for long-term missions and provide unique scientific capabilities and flagship-class science for a fraction of the mass and cost of traditional concepts. New mission design techniques are needed to fully exploit the potential of this new concept.This final report contains the results and findings of the Phase One study, and is organized as follows. First, an overview of the Magnetour mission concept is presented. Then, the research methodology adopted for this Phase One study is described, followed by a brief outline of the main findings and their correspondence with the original Phase One task plan. Next, an overview of the environment of outer planets is provided, including magnetosphere, radiation belt and planetary moons. Then performance of electrodynamic tethers is assessed, as well as other electromagnetic systems. A method to exploit multi-body dynamics is given next. These analyses allow us to carry out a Jovian mission design to gain insight in the benefits of Magnetour. In addition, a spacecraft configuration is presented that fully incorporates the tether in the design. Finally technology roadmap considerations are discussed

Equating Accelerometer Estimates of Moderate-to-Vigorous Physical Activity: In Search of the Rosetta Stone

Purpose - No universally accepted ActiGraph accelerometer cutpoints for quantifying moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) exist. Estimates of MVPA from one set of cutpoints cannot be directly compared to MVPA estimates using different cutpoints, even when the same outcome units are reported (MVPA min•d-1). The purpose of this study was to illustrate the utility of an equating system that translates reported MVPA estimates from one set of cutpoints into another, to better inform public health policy. Design - Secondary data analysis. Methods - ActiGraph data from a large preschool project (N=419, 3-6yr-olds, CHAMPS) was used to conduct the analyses. Conversions were made among five different published MVPA cutpoints for children: Pate (PT), Sirard (SR), Puyau (PY), Van Cauwengerghe (VC), and Freedson Equation (FR). A 10 fold cross-validation procedure was used to develop prediction equations using MVPA estimated from each of the five sets of cutpoints as the dependent variable, with estimated MVPA from one of the other four sets of cutpoints (e.g., PT MVPA predicted from FR MVPA). Results - The mean levels of MVPA for the total sample ranged from 22.5 (PY) to 269.0 (FR) min•d-1. Across the prediction models (5 total), the median proportion of variance explained (R2) was 0.76 (range 0.48-0.97). The median absolute percent error was 17.2% (range 6.3%-38.4%). Conclusion - The prediction equations developed here allow for direct comparisons between studies employing different ActiGraph cutpoints in preschool-age children. These prediction equations give public health researchers and policy makers a more concise picture of physical activity levels of preschool-aged children

Transocular Entry of Seasonal Influenza-Attenuated Virus Aerosols and the Efficacy of N95 Respirators, Surgical Masks, and Eye Protection in Humans

Background. The efficacy of barrier precautions to prevent influenza transmission is unknown. Methods. Twenty-eight participants were exposed to monodispersed live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) particles (4.9 lm) in 6 groups: group 1, no precautions; group 2, ocular exposure only; group 3, surgical mask without eye protection; group 4, surgical mask with eye protection; group 5, fit-tested N95 respirator without eye protection; and group 6, fit-tested N95 respirator with eye protection. Influenza was detected by reversetranscription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and culture in nasal washes. Exact 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results. Influenza was detected in 4 of 4 participants in group 1 (95% CI, 0-.60), 3 of 4 in group 2 (95% CI, .006-.806]), 5 of 5 in group 3 (95% CI, 0-.522), 5 of 5 in group 4, (95% CI, 0-.522), 3 of 5 in group 5 (95% CI, .053-.853), and 1 of 5 in group 6 (95% CI, .05-.72). RT-PCR revealed significant differences between group 1 and all other groups except group 3. Conclusions. Transocular transmission of LAIV occured in most participants suggesting the necessity of eye protection. An N95 respirator provided the best guard further enhanced by eye protection

Antenatal steroid exposure and heart rate variability in adolescents born with very low birth weight

Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) suggests autonomic imbalance in the control of heart rate and is associated with unfavorable cardiometabolic outcomes. We examined whether antenatal corticosteroid (ANCS) exposure had long-term programming effects on heart rate variability (HRV) in adolescents born with very low birth weight (VLBW)

Control of Water Use by Pearl Millet (Pennisetum typhoides)

At Hyderabad, India, stands of pearl millet were grown after the monsoon (a) with no irrigation after establishment and (b) with irrigation as needed to avoid stress. Increases of dry matter and leaf area were determined by regular harvesting. The interception of radiation by the foliage, uptake of water from the soil and stomatal conductance were monitored. Before anthesis at 42 days after sowing (DAS), the rate of dry matter production and the transpiration rate in the unirrigated stand were about 80% of the corresponding rates for the irrigated control, mainly because of a smaller stomatal conductance from 30 DAS. After anthesis, the unirrigated stand grew little and used only 10% of the water transpired by the control. This large difference was partitioned between loss of leaf area and smaller stomatal conductance in the ratio of approximately 2:1. Radiation intercepted by foliage in the irrigated stand produced 2.0 g of dry matter per MJ compared with 2.5 g MJ−1 for the same variety growing in the monsoon, a difference consistent with a smaller stomatal conductance in drier ai

ACE-ASIA - Regional climatic and atmospheric chemical effects of Asian dust and pollution

Although continental-scale plumes of Asian dust and pollution reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth's surface and perturb the chemistry of the atmosphere, our ability to quantify these effects has been limited by a lack of critical observations, particularly of layers above the surface. Comprehensive surface, airborne, shipboard, and satellite measurements of Asian aerosol chemical composition, size, optical properties, and radiative impacts were performed during the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) study. Measurements within a massive Chinese dust storm at numerous widely spaced sampling locations revealed the highly complex structure of the atmosphere, in which layers of dust, urban pollution, and biomass-burning smoke may be transported long distances as distinct entities or mixed together. The data allow a first-time assessment of the regional climatic and atmospheric chemical effects of a continental-scale mixture of dust and pollution. Our results show that radiative flux reductions during such episodes are sufficient to cause regional climate change