Magnitudes and Timescales of Total Solar Irradiance Variability

The Sun's net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to gigayears. Direct measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) show changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy on timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. Variations of ~0.01 % over a few minutes are caused by the ever-present superposition of convection and oscillations with very large solar flares on rare occasion causing slightly-larger measureable signals. On timescales of days to weeks, changing photospheric magnetic activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1 % level. The 11-year solar cycle shows variations of comparable magnitude with irradiances peaking near solar maximum. Secular variations are more difficult to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Historical reconstructions of the Sun's irradiance based on indicators of solar-surface magnetic activity, such as sunspots, faculae, and cosmogenic isotope records, suggest solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitudes of these variations have high uncertainties due to the indirect historical records on which they rely. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities. In this manuscript I summarize the Sun's variability magnitudes over different temporal regimes and discuss the irradiance record's relevance for solar and climate studies as well as for detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.Comment: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2016, 19 pp., 8 figure

Northern Tornadoes Project. Annual Report 2021 v2

The Northern Tornado Project’s third year of detecting, assessing and documenting tornadoes and other damaging wind events across Canada saw some interesting extremes – tornadoes in parts of both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts for the first time in decades, an apparent absence of tornadoes on the Prairies over the 60 days with the highest climatological frequency, a record number of significant (EF2+) tornadoes in Ontario, and massive downbursts in NE British Columbia, NW Alberta and SW Northwest Territories associated with an historic ‘heat dome’. On top of this, the COVID-19 pandemic was still spreading across the country in waves. Thankfully, it subsided enough over the summer that NTP teams were able to travel safely to various locations across the country for ground surveys. Some of the most challenging ground surveys investigated high-impact damage from the July 15th EF2 Barrie, Ontario tornado, and others significant tornadoes from that day. Since 2019, founding partners Western University and ImpactWX, in conjunction with other partners and collaborators, have been undertaking the most comprehensive tornado analyses ever made in Canada. In 2021, we were able to bring on new partners (Instant Weather, CatIQ) and new staff members (bilingual research assistant Francis Lavigne-Theriault, Western Libraries GIS Technical Specialist Jordan Fuller). We also sadly lost one of our external research partners, Arn Womble. In addition, the public-facing Dashboard and Open Data Site have become more useful and user friendly. Together with our research, it is a step towards fulfilling our vision that Canadians are better informed about tornadoes and are able to better protect their homes and communities. We’ve also continued to be community driven. We initiated a Super-Contributor program to recognize our most active and knowledgeable contributors of social media reports and data (and rewarded them with stylish NTP ball caps!). We’ve made numerous media appearances, some national in scope, as well as given NTP talks to a number of different organizations. You’ll find the details in the pages of our annual report

Irradiance Variations of the Sun and Sun-Like Stars -- Overview of Topical Collection

This topical collection summarizes recent advances in observing and modeling irradiance variations of the Sun and Sun-like stars, emphasizing the links between surface magnetic fields and the resulting solar and stellar variability. In particular, the articles composing this collection summarize recent progress in i) solar-irradiance measurements; ii) modeling of solar- and stellar-irradiance variability; and iii) understanding of the effects of such variability on Earth's climate and exoplanet environments. This topical-collection overview article gives background and more details on these aspects of variability.Comment: accepted for Solar Physic

Building Climate Resilient Communities: Living Within the Earth’s Carrying Capacity

This Knowledge Synthesis examines how Canadian communities can proactively advance climate resilience to effectively reduce the risk from climate change impacts. Our synthesis reveals that some communities have prepared high level adaptation plans, but very few have a detailed implementation strategy with established funding frameworks. Most actions to build community resilience in Canada are unplanned and take place in recovery following an extreme loss event. Indigenous communities are at the forefront of climate change adaptation in Canada. Self-determination and adaptive capacity building through community-led risk assessments, planning, and disaster recovery organizations, while addressing the broader context of reconciliation gaps and opportunities for integration, are important for climate resiliency. Combining Western and Indigenous ways of knowing for effective knowledge translation is necessary for adaptation. Indigenous collaborations that promote nature-based solutions and conservation are critical to global GHG sequestration and resilience. Local scale urban warming experienced by Canadian communities adds to the heat burden in the warm season and further exacerbates social, health and economic impacts. More research is needed to document and predict the occurrence of heatwaves and to develop heat adaptation strategies for Canadian cities. There are physical and mental health impacts of heatwaves and climate change. To address the climate crisis, a more ambitious, strategic and collaborative approach to adaptation is required. Proven tools exist to proactively improve climate resilience. A major issue is lack of funding and direction for governments and indigenous communities to address climate resilience. The executive summary of the full report provides key messages

Spectral irradiance variations: Comparison between observations and the SATIRE model on solar rotation time scales

Aims: We test the reliability of the observed and calculated spectral irradiance variations between 200 and 1600 nm over a time span of three solar rotations in 2004. Methods: We compare our model calculations to spectral irradiance observations taken with SORCE/SIM, SoHO/VIRGO and UARS/SUSIM. The calculations assume LTE and are based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model. We analyse the variability as a function of wavelength and present time series in a number of selected wavelength regions covering the UV to the NIR. We also show the facular and spot contributions to the total calculated variability. Results: In most wavelength regions, the variability agrees well between all sets of observations and the model calculations. The model does particularly well between 400 and 1300 nm, but fails below 220 nm as well as for some of the strong NUV lines. Our calculations clearly show the shift from faculae-dominated variability in the NUV to spot-dominated variability above approximately 400 nm. We also discuss some of the remaining problems, such as the low sensitivity of SUSIM and SORCE for wavelengths between approximately 310 and 350 nm, where currently the model calculations still provide the best estimates of solar variability.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, accepted by A&

On the Lessons Learned from the Operations of the ERBE Nonscanner Instrument in Space and the Production of the Nonscanner TOA Radiation Budget Dataset

Monitoring the flow of radiative energy at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) is essential for understanding the Earths climate and how it is changing with time. The determination of TOA global net radiation budget using broadband nonscanner instruments has received renewed interest recently due to advances in both instrument technology and the availability of small satellite platforms. The use of such instruments for monitoring Earths radiation budget was attempted in the past from satellite missions such as the Nimbus 7 and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). This paper discusses the important lessons learned from the operation of the ERBE nonscanner instrument and the production of the ERBE nonscanner TOA radiation budget data set that have direct relevance to current nonscanner instrument efforts

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra

A behavioral comparison of male and female adults with high functioning autism spectrum conditions

Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) affect more males than females in the general population. However, within ASC it is unclear if there are phenotypic sex differences. Testing for similarities and differences between the sexes is important not only for clinical assessment but also has implications for theories of typical sex differences and of autism. Using cognitive and behavioral measures, we investigated similarities and differences between the sexes in age- and IQ-matched adults with ASC (high-functioning autism or Asperger syndrome). Of the 83 (45 males and 38 females) participants, 62 (33 males and 29 females) met Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) cut-off criteria for autism in childhood and were included in all subsequent analyses. The severity of childhood core autism symptoms did not differ between the sexes. Males and females also did not differ in self-reported empathy, systemizing, anxiety, depression, and obsessive-compulsive traits/symptoms or mentalizing performance. However, adult females with ASC showed more lifetime sensory symptoms (p = 0.036), fewer current socio-communication difficulties (p = 0.001), and more self-reported autistic traits (p = 0.012) than males. In addition, females with ASC who also had developmental language delay had lower current performance IQ than those without developmental language delay (p<0.001), a pattern not seen in males. The absence of typical sex differences in empathizing-systemizing profiles within the autism spectrum confirms a prediction from the extreme male brain theory. Behavioral sex differences within ASC may also reflect different developmental mechanisms between males and females with ASC. We discuss the importance of the superficially better socio-communication ability in adult females with ASC in terms of why females with ASC may more often go under-recognized, and receive their diagnosis later, than males

Climate Change Observation Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

This presentation will summarize a new quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations. Using this metric, most current global satellite observations struggle to meet this accuracy level. CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is a new satellite mission designed to resolve this challenge is by achieving advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra. The CLARREO spectrometers can serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, etc). A CLARREO Pathfinder mission for flight on the International Space Station is included in the U.S. President"TM"s fiscal year 2016 budget, with launch in 2019 or 2020. Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A new study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance and concludes that the economic value is ~ $9 Trillion U.S. dollars. The new value includes the cost of carbon emissions reductions

ScreenTrack: Using a Visual History of a Computer Screen to Retrieve Documents and Web Pages

Computers are used for various purposes, so frequent context switching is inevitable. In this setting, retrieving the documents, files, and web pages that have been used for a task can be a challenge. While modern applications provide a history of recent documents for users to resume work, this is not sufficient to retrieve all the digital resources relevant to a given primary document. The histories currently available do not take into account the complex dependencies among resources across applications. To address this problem, we tested the idea of using a visual history of a computer screen to retrieve digital resources within a few days of their use through the development of ScreenTrack. ScreenTrack is software that captures screenshots of a computer at regular intervals. It then generates a time-lapse video from the captured screenshots and lets users retrieve a recently opened document or web page from a screenshot after recognizing the resource by its appearance. A controlled user study found that participants were able to retrieve requested information more quickly with ScreenTrack than under the baseline condition with existing tools. A follow-up study showed that the participants used ScreenTrack to retrieve previously used resources and to recover the context for task resumption.Comment: CHI 2020, 10 pages, 7 figure