Disease-specific mortality burdens in a rural Gambian population using verbal autopsy, 1998-2007.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate and evaluate the cause-of-death structure and disease-specific mortality rates in a rural area of The Gambia as determined using the InterVA-4 model. DESIGN: Deaths and person-years of observation were determined by age group for the population of the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance area from January 1998 to December 2007. Causes of death were determined by verbal autopsy (VA) using the InterVA-4 model and ICD-10 disease classification. Assigned causes of death were classified into six broad groups: infectious and parasitic diseases; cancers; other non-communicable diseases; neonatal; maternal; and external causes. Poisson regression was used to estimate age and disease-specific mortality rates, and likelihood ratio tests were used to determine statistical significance. RESULTS: A total of 3,203 deaths were recorded and VA administered for 2,275 (71%). All-age mortality declined from 15 per 1,000 person-years in 1998-2001 to 8 per 1,000 person-years in 2005-2007. Children aged 1-4 years registered the most marked (74%) decline from 27 to 7 per 1,000 person-years. Communicable diseases accounted for half (49.9%) of the deaths in all age groups, dominated by acute respiratory infections (ARI) (13.7%), malaria (12.9%) and pulmonary tuberculosis (10.2%). The leading causes of death among infants were ARI (5.59 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 4.38-7.15]) and malaria (4.11 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 3.09-5.47]). Mortality rates in children aged 1-4 years were 3.06 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 2.58-3.63) for malaria, and 1.05 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.79-1.41) for ARI. The HIV-related mortality rate in this age group was 1.17 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.89-1.54). Pulmonary tuberculosis and communicable diseases other than malaria, HIV/AIDS and ARI were the main killers of adults aged 15 years and over. Stroke-related mortality increased to become the leading cause of death among the elderly aged 60 years or more in 2005-2007. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in the Farafenni HDSS area was dominated by communicable diseases. Malaria and ARI were the leading causes of death in the general population. In addition to these, diarrhoeal disease was a particularly important cause of death among children under 5 years of age, as was pulmonary tuberculosis among adults aged 15 years and above

Monitoring the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines into West Africa: design and implementation of a population-based surveillance system.

Routine use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in developing countries is expected to lead to a significant reduction in childhood deaths. However, PCVs have been associated with replacement disease with non-vaccine serotypes. We established a population-based surveillance system to document the direct and indirect impact of PCVs on the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and radiological pneumonia in those aged 2 months and older in The Gambia, and to monitor changes in serotype-specific IPD. Here we describe how this surveillance system was set up and is being operated as a partnership between the Medical Research Council Unit and the Gambian Government. This surveillance system is expected to provide crucial information for immunisation policy and serves as a potential model for those introducing routine PCV vaccination in diverse settings

Effects of Contact Network Models on Stochastic Epidemic Simulations

The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between individuals using a variety of sensors. Typically one uses such data to fit a probabilistic model of network contacts over which a disease may propagate. In this paper, we investigate the effects of different contact network models with varying levels of complexity on the outcomes of simulated epidemics using a stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We evaluate these network models on six datasets of contacts between people in a variety of settings. Our results demonstrate that the choice of network model can have a significant effect on how closely the outcomes of an epidemic simulation on a simulated network match the outcomes on the actual network constructed from the sensor data. In particular, preserving degrees of nodes appears to be much more important than preserving cluster structure for accurate epidemic simulations.Comment: To appear at International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Etiology of severe childhood pneumonia in the Gambia, West Africa, determined by conventional and molecular microbiological analyses of lung and pleural aspirate samples.

Molecular analyses of lung aspirates from Gambian children with severe pneumonia detected pathogens more frequently than did culture and showed a predominance of bacteria, principally Streptococcus pneumoniae, >75% being of serotypes covered by current pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Multiple pathogens were detected frequently, notably Haemophilus influenzae (mostly nontypeable) together with S. pneumoniae

An affordable, quality-assured community-based system for high-resolution entomological surveillance of vector mosquitoes that reflects human malaria infection risk patterns.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More sensitive and scalable entomological surveillance tools are required to monitor low levels of transmission that are increasingly common across the tropics, particularly where vector control has been successful. A large-scale larviciding programme in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is supported by a community-based (CB) system for trapping adult mosquito densities to monitor programme performance. Methodology An intensive and extensive CB system for routine, longitudinal, programmatic surveillance of malaria vectors and other mosquitoes using the Ifakara Tent Trap (ITT-C) was developed in Urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and validated by comparison with quality assurance (QA) surveys using either ITT-C or human landing catches (HLC), as well as a cross-sectional survey of malaria parasite prevalence in the same housing compounds. RESULTS: Community-based ITT-C had much lower sensitivity per person-night of sampling than HLC (Relative Rate (RR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.079 [0.051, 0.121], P < 0.001 for Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 0.153 [0.137, 0.171], P < 0.001 for Culicines) but only moderately differed from QA surveys with the same trap (0.536 [0.406,0.617], P = 0.001 and 0.747 [0.677,0.824], P < 0.001, for An. gambiae or Culex respectively). Despite the poor sensitivity of the ITT per night of sampling, when CB-ITT was compared with QA-HLC, it proved at least comparably sensitive in absolute terms (171 versus 169 primary vectors caught) and cost-effective (153US$versus 187US$ per An. gambiae caught) because it allowed more spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling (4284 versus 335 trap nights distributed over 615 versus 240 locations with a mean number of samples per year of 143 versus 141). Despite the very low vectors densities (Annual estimate of about 170 An gambiae s.l bites per person per year), CB-ITT was the only entomological predictor of parasite infection risk (Odds Ratio [95% CI] = 4.43[3.027,7. 454] per An. gambiae or Anopheles funestus caught per night, P =0.0373). Discussion and conclusion CB trapping approaches could be improved with more sensitive traps, but already offer a practical, safe and affordable system for routine programmatic mosquito surveillance and clusters could be distributed across entire countries by adapting the sample submission and quality assurance procedures accordingly

Cardiovascular, endocrine and behavioural responses to suckling and permanent separation in goats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suckling can be a peaceful or vulnerable event for goats and kids, whereas, separation is suggested as stressful. The aim of this study was to investigate physiology and behaviour in these two different situations in dairy goats.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Four studies were performed with seven goats kept with their first-born kid in individual boxes. The goats were videotaped and heart rate and arterial blood pressure were recorded every minute by telemetry from parturition until 24 hours after separation. One to two days after parturition, Study 1 was performed with analyses of heart rate and blood pressure around a suckling. In Study 2, performed 3-5 days after parturition, blood sampling was done before, during and after suckling. Study 3 was performed 4-6 days post partum, with blood sampling before and after a permanent goat and kid separation. In addition, vocalisations were recorded after separation. Blood samples were obtained from a jugular vein catheter and analysed for plasma cortisol, β-endorphin, oxytocin, and vasopressin concentrations. Study 4 was performed during the first (N1) and second nights (N2) after parturition and the nights after Study 2 (N3) and 3 (N4). Heart rate, blood pressure and time spent lying down were recorded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The kids suckled 2 ± 0.2 times per hour and each suckling bout lasted 43 ± 15 s. In Study 1, heart rate and blood pressure did not change significantly during undisturbed suckling. In Study 2, plasma cortisol (P ≤ 0.05 during suckling and P ≤ 0.01 five minutes after suckling) and β-endorphin (P ≤ 0.05) concentrations increased during suckling, but oxytocin and vasopressin concentrations did not change. In Study 3, the goats and kids vocalised intensively during the first 20 minutes after separation, but the physiological variables were not affected. In Study 4, heart rate and arterial blood pressure declined gradually after parturition and were lowest during N4 (P ≤ 0.05) when the goats spent longer time lying down than during earlier nights (P ≤ 0.01 during N1 and N3 and P ≤ 0.05 during N2).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Suckling elevated plasma cortisol and β-endorphin concentrations in the goats. The intensive vocalisation in the goats after separation, earlier suggested to indicate stress, was not accompanied by cardiovascular or endocrine responses.</p

Effects of Intracoronary Alteplase on Microvascular Function in Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background—Impaired microcirculatory reperfusion worsens prognosis following acute ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction. In the T‐TIME (A Trial of Low‐Dose Adjunctive Alteplase During Primary PCI) trial, microvascular obstruction on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging did not differ with adjunctive, low‐dose, intracoronary alteplase (10 or 20 mg) versus placebo during primary percutaneous coronary intervention. We evaluated the effects of intracoronary alteplase, during primary percutaneous coronary intervention, on the index of microcirculatory resistance, coronary flow reserve, and resistive reserve ratio. Methods and Results—A prespecified physiology substudy of the T‐TIME trial. From 2016 to 2017, patients with ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction ≤6 hours from symptom onset were randomized in a double‐blind study to receive alteplase 20 mg, alteplase 10 mg, or placebo infused into the culprit artery postreperfusion, but prestenting. Index of microcirculatory resistance, coronary flow reserve, and resistive reserve ratio were measured after percutaneous coronary intervention. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance was performed at 2 to 7 days and 3 months. Analyses in relation to ischemic time (<2, 2–4, and ≥4 hours) were prespecified. One hundred forty‐four patients (mean age, 59±11 years; 80% male) were prospectively enrolled, representing 33% of the overall population (n=440). Overall, index of microcirculatory resistance (median, 29.5; interquartile range, 17.0–55.0), coronary flow reserve(1.4 [1.1–2.0]), and resistive reserve ratio (1.7 [1.3–2.3]) at the end of percutaneous coronary intervention did not differ between treatment groups. Interactions were observed between ischemic time and alteplase for coronary flow reserve (P=0.013), resistive reserve ratio (P=0.026), and microvascular obstruction (P=0.022), but not index of microcirculatory resistance. Conclusions—In ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction with ischemic time ≤6 hours, there was overall no difference in microvascular function with alteplase versus placebo

Spatio-temporal Models of Lymphangiogenesis in Wound Healing

Several studies suggest that one possible cause of impaired wound healing is failed or insufficient lymphangiogenesis, that is the formation of new lymphatic capillaries. Although many mathematical models have been developed to describe the formation of blood capillaries (angiogenesis), very few have been proposed for the regeneration of the lymphatic network. Lymphangiogenesis is a markedly different process from angiogenesis, occurring at different times and in response to different chemical stimuli. Two main hypotheses have been proposed: 1) lymphatic capillaries sprout from existing interrupted ones at the edge of the wound in analogy to the blood angiogenesis case; 2) lymphatic endothelial cells first pool in the wound region following the lymph flow and then, once sufficiently populated, start to form a network. Here we present two PDE models describing lymphangiogenesis according to these two different hypotheses. Further, we include the effect of advection due to interstitial flow and lymph flow coming from open capillaries. The variables represent different cell densities and growth factor concentrations, and where possible the parameters are estimated from biological data. The models are then solved numerically and the results are compared with the available biological literature.Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, 6 Tables (39 figure files in total